Race
Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1), Race 5, 1350m
Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1), Race 5, 1350m
History (Last 10 years)
*Two 3YOs have won in the past 10 years. If you backed all 16 3YOs to win 1 unit at their prices the POT would be 2 percent.
*The median winning dividend is 16.00.
*7 of 10 winners have been 10.00+
*The median spell count is 4.
*The Doomben 10,000 has provided 4 of the last 10 winners.
*Two 3YOs have won in the past 10 years. If you backed all 16 3YOs to win 1 unit at their prices the POT would be 2 percent.
*The median winning dividend is 16.00.
*7 of 10 winners have been 10.00+
*The median spell count is 4.
*The Doomben 10,000 has provided 4 of the last 10 winners.
Map
Map Comments
I’m A Rippa, Moss ‘n’ Dale, Pecans, Danon Liberty and Osborne Bulls are all emergencies.
There doesn’t look to be a lot of pace even with them in the race.
Without them, the map certainly favours those on pace.
There doesn’t look to be a lot of pace even with them in the race.
Without them, the map certainly favours those on pace.
Track Conditions
The track is currently rated a Good 4.
There is 8-20mm rain predicted for Thursday but thankfully nothing of note for Friday and Saturday. We saw in the meeting two weeks ago that rain on the day made the track a lottery.
Monitoring the track for any bias is a must.
Assuming three days out how it will play is very difficult, so I’m going to assume a reasonably even track.
The track is currently rated a Good 4.
There is 8-20mm rain predicted for Thursday but thankfully nothing of note for Friday and Saturday. We saw in the meeting two weeks ago that rain on the day made the track a lottery.
Monitoring the track for any bias is a must.
Assuming three days out how it will play is very difficult, so I’m going to assume a reasonably even track.
Leading Contenders
Champagne Cuddles (4.40)
Finished 3rd beaten 1.35L by Impending in the Kingsford Smith in a career peak run.
Her SP was 6.00 in that race compared with Impending 4.20 but meets him 3.5kg better.
She went back that day and sat 3-wide outside Impending, here I expect her to settle 3rd fence or at worse 5th fence and between 2 and 4L in front of Impending.
Assuming the inside is ok, I think this will be the difference and it will take some effort for Impending, or anyone else to run past her.
Clearly the one to beat.
Champagne Cuddles (4.40)
Finished 3rd beaten 1.35L by Impending in the Kingsford Smith in a career peak run.
Her SP was 6.00 in that race compared with Impending 4.20 but meets him 3.5kg better.
She went back that day and sat 3-wide outside Impending, here I expect her to settle 3rd fence or at worse 5th fence and between 2 and 4L in front of Impending.
Assuming the inside is ok, I think this will be the difference and it will take some effort for Impending, or anyone else to run past her.
Clearly the one to beat.
Impending (5.00)
Dual Brisbane Group 1 winner having won the Kingsford Smith last start and this race 1 year ago.
He was a 20.00 roughie last year when carrying 52.5kg.
He is going just as well, if not better leading into this race and is a 4YO so the extra weight won’t necessarily stop him.
He likely has a new career in the offing post this race, so the stable will be keen for him to retain his title.
There’s no doubt he is capable but I’m happy to risk him, if for no other reason than the map.
It will be heart in mouth stuff though I’m sure.
Dual Brisbane Group 1 winner having won the Kingsford Smith last start and this race 1 year ago.
He was a 20.00 roughie last year when carrying 52.5kg.
He is going just as well, if not better leading into this race and is a 4YO so the extra weight won’t necessarily stop him.
He likely has a new career in the offing post this race, so the stable will be keen for him to retain his title.
There’s no doubt he is capable but I’m happy to risk him, if for no other reason than the map.
It will be heart in mouth stuff though I’m sure.
Perast (7.00)
Perast has enjoyed his time in Brisbane winning a listed race before the Group 3 Fred Best.
As noted the 3YOs have a good record but I just can’t see the figures in his history strong enough to win a Group 1.
Not for me.
Perast has enjoyed his time in Brisbane winning a listed race before the Group 3 Fred Best.
As noted the 3YOs have a good record but I just can’t see the figures in his history strong enough to win a Group 1.
Not for me.
Care To Think (9.00)
Closed off ok from last in the Kingsford Smith after being equally ok in the Doomben 10,000.
Needs a giant step on his PB and his recent ratings and I doubt he can reach the level required, particularly when he’s likely to settle nearer to last than first.
Closed off ok from last in the Kingsford Smith after being equally ok in the Doomben 10,000.
Needs a giant step on his PB and his recent ratings and I doubt he can reach the level required, particularly when he’s likely to settle nearer to last than first.
Roughies
History tells us the race is primed for a rough result.
On this occasion, I think the race is reasonably thin.
History tells us the race is primed for a rough result.
On this occasion, I think the race is reasonably thin.
Of those 15.00+, I think that Santa Ana Lane and Crack Me Up represent the best value.
Santa Ana Lane has the Rupert Clarke and the Goodwood at Group 1 level in his last 5 starts.
Both those races were notable for the early pressure, which I doubt he’ll get here, but he has supreme acceleration and is the best of the roughies.
Crack Me Up is coming into this off a 63-day break, something that is not easy to do in a Group 1 but, he won the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup off a similar break in March and thus it isn’t impossible.
Both those races were notable for the early pressure, which I doubt he’ll get here, but he has supreme acceleration and is the best of the roughies.
Crack Me Up is coming into this off a 63-day break, something that is not easy to do in a Group 1 but, he won the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup off a similar break in March and thus it isn’t impossible.
Emergencies
Connections of both Danon Liberty and Osborne Bulls are desperate for a start as both go into this race as live chances.
Danon Liberty is a listed winner in Japan now under the Darren Weir care.
He’s a mystery but looked good in a recent jump-out.
Osborne Bulls has worked through the grades very quickly culminating in winning the Luskin Star at Scone last time out.
Both will be legitimate chances if they get a run but equally both look to map very poorly so on face value if they were to get a run I would have to still be against them.
Connections of both Danon Liberty and Osborne Bulls are desperate for a start as both go into this race as live chances.
Danon Liberty is a listed winner in Japan now under the Darren Weir care.
He’s a mystery but looked good in a recent jump-out.
Osborne Bulls has worked through the grades very quickly culminating in winning the Luskin Star at Scone last time out.
Both will be legitimate chances if they get a run but equally both look to map very poorly so on face value if they were to get a run I would have to still be against them.
The Verdict
Tough Group 1 handicap, as they should be.
Against history, I think the winner comes from the top 2 in the betting but must lean to the filly Champagne Cuddles.
Tough Group 1 handicap, as they should be.
Against history, I think the winner comes from the top 2 in the betting but must lean to the filly Champagne Cuddles.
My Tips
1. Champagne Cuddles
2. Impending
3. Crack Me Up
4. Santa Ana Lane
1. Champagne Cuddles
2. Impending
3. Crack Me Up
4. Santa Ana Lane
Suggested Bet(s)
Back Champagne Cuddles (4.40) to win.
Back Champagne Cuddles (4.40) to win.
