Demonstrate will be out to give the Godolphin camp their third win in the Sandown Guineas from the past four years when their son of New Approach lines up in the Group 2 feature this Saturday. Both Paximadia and Tatra won this race for Sheikh Mohammad under the Darley banner and Demonstrate is rated an $8.50 to continue the Sheikh’s good record, in a very open market The early favourite is filly, Don’t Doubt Mamma ($4.00). It will only be her second go at the mile, her first resulting in a sixth placing in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes behind Badawiya and Sacred Eye as a 5/1 chance. If successful, Don’t Doubt Mamma will be the first filly to win the race since Cayambe in 2005. David Hayes and Tom Dabernig are aiming for the second consecutive Guineas with former Kiwi galloper He’s Our Rokkii. The training partnership took out last year’s edition with Petrology and are given a genuine hope of making it back-to-back victories with the son of Roc De Cambes, who is coming off a strong fourth placing in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes, rated a $7.00.
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1. DAL CIELO – M Zahra (12)
New Zealand galloper who ran a cracking race at his first Australian start, running third (neck) in the Guineas Prelude to Bon Aurum after leading throughout. Surprisingly from a good draw, he got back in his next run, the Caulfield Guineas (eleventh) before being outclassed in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes won by Japonisme on Derby Day. Better suited back to this grade but drawn wide and not sold on his previous mile effort.
2. MAHUTA – B Rawiller (14)
Made it three wins in a row when taking out the Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) on Derby Day with a neck to spare from Patch Adams. Drew well last time out and as he has shown at his previous efforts, doesn’t shy away from digging in for the fight over the final stages. Draw here may make things a big more difficult but has come a long way since making his debut in September and may still be on the improve.
3. MARKY MARK – (2)
Won three of his first four starts in his native New Zealand, including the G1 Manawatu Sires’ (1400m). The son of Makfi has got back in each of his two starts since returning from that initial campaign and finished sixth and fourth in a Listed (1200m) and Group 2 (1400m) event respectively. Probably expected to see a bit more from him at each of his last two but the step up to the mile looks to be in favour, as should be the long Sandown run home.
4. DEMONSTRATE – J McDonald (3)
Ultra consistent galloper from the Godolphin camp who has only finished outside of money twice in ten starts this campaign. He led them into the straight when contesting the Hilton Hotels Stakes last Saturday but was run down by Palentino, finishing second (1.3 lengths). Will camp on the speed again her from gate three, set weights see him one of only a few to come down in weight and although facing the mile for the first time, he is fit, in form and likely to very competitive here.
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5. CREDINGTON – C Newitt (1)
Very good finishing effort in the Stutt Stakes off an eight week break, finishing third and less than a length to Sovereign Nation, before never looking comfortable on the softer ground in the G3 Carbine Club (1600m) on Derby Day. Held his ground in the run home under hands and heels riding from the jockey that day and recalling the Stutt Stakes effort, with a drier track possible to come Saturday, he could be a sharp improver.
6. PATCH ADAMS – S Arnold (11)
Given a month off after finishing fifth (2.3 lengths) in the G2 Stutt Stakes (1600m) and returned with an excellent closing second (neck) to Mahuta in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes. Ratings are climbing in impressive fashion for this Dane Shadow colt who despite only having one win to show for his ten starts to date, looks to be right in this off of his latest showing.
7. HE’S OUR ROKKII – D Lane (13)
Kicked off this campaign with victory in a Benalla Maiden (1206m) for the Hayes/Dabernig camp and as since progressed well, running fourth (1.2 lengths) in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes a fortnight ago. Settled in the last quarter of the field last start and worked home well. It was his third straight start over the mile with his previous effort resulting in a second (1.5 lengths) to the handy Mr Individual however, to be backing him to run down this field from the back of the field, he’ll be giving them a decent start from thirteen, would’ve liked to have seen him win one of his last couple.
8. SEA OF TRANQUILITY – L Currie (15)
Frustratingly for connections, the Dash For Cash gelding finished second for the third consecutive time last start, finishing 1.5 lengths behind Hursley in the Curved TV Stakes (1800m) on Oaks Day. From the widest gate in a field of fifteen, he had plenty of work to do in the run and the effort was full of merit however, he’s drawn the same gate here and in a stronger field. Looks too much of a challenge for him from out there.
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9. FLYING LIGHT – K McEvoy (10)
Won his Maiden at Benalla four starts back but has found the company in three stakes races since, a bit too rich and finished a few length from the winner on each occasion. He got the perfect run from gate three when third (3.7 lengths) to Mahuta in the Gothic Stakes (1400m) and held his ground behind the same horse at his most recent start when sixth (3.4 lengths) in the Carbine Club Stakes (1600m). Needs to find something on last couple to be winning.
10. NGARIMU – G Boss (7)
Expected to run well on debut at Seymour when making his debut last month and the well-bred colt from the Peter Moody stable did, winning the 1300m Maiden by a comfortable 1.5 lengths. His only start since saw him finish third (2.3 lengths) in the Listed Hilton Hotels Stakes (1400m) won by Palentino. The two horses that beat him home last start are going well and this being only his third start, would expect he has more improvement to come which should put him right in the mix.
11. SHOCKAHOLIC – C Parnham (6)
Broke his maiden status at his fifth starts two runs back, winning at Mornington narrowly from Hardern over 1300m. Settled back in the Ballarat BM 64 (1400m) his only run since and after being disappointed for a run in the straight, was ok late to run fifth (2 lengths) behind Felicienne. This much harder than either of the above runs but does given the impression that the mile will suit, and could get a cheap run from six behind the speed. Could be a value runner for those looking for one.
12. DON’T DOUBT MAMMA – D Dunn (5)
Given a freshen-up after a disappointing sixth (4.4 lengths) in the G2 Edward Manifold (1600m) and returned with an authoritative win over 1400m in the Listed Lexus Hybrid, defeating Indarra by two lengths. Back up to the mile here but should get every chance to see it right out this time with the prefect run from gate five and coming off a strong win. Talented filly who should go well.
13. THE GREY FLASH – J Bowditch (4)
Robbie Laing trained filly who finished a well beaten sixth (10.9 lengths) in the VRC Crown Oaks at her most recent start. That was her fifth run this campaign and although quality races, she’s finished well out of the money on each occasion and hard to see how she comes back to the mile, takes on the boys and beats them.
14. MAYSAM – V Duric (8)
Returned from a break with a win for Mick Price in a Benalla Maiden (1406m), finishing strongly from the second half of the field before being thrown in the deep end and lining up in the Listed Lexus Hybrid (1400m) on Cup Day. Settled near last from a wide gate but didn’t mind her finishing effort in crossing the line in fifth (3.5 lengths) behind the in-form Don’t Doubt Mamma. Showed more than expected last time out and will only be better for it, may be able to settle closer to here than her last couple where she has drawn very wide.
15. ZAFIKI –
Taken to Cranbourne for her debut and as expected, ran well, taking out the mile Maiden by 1.5 lengths from Strangest Dream. Takes a big step up here in class and whilst she’s obviously got ability and comes from an astute stable – with an exceptional record when it comes to the females, prepared to see how she measures up in this company.
RACE OVERVIEW –
Competitive race with several form-lines to consider here and think the Stutt Stakes may be the way to go with Patch Adams. He ran well in the Stutt and again in the Carbine with Patch Adams handling the softer conditions better than Credington who also can be a sharp improver here on better ground at a big price. Mahuta obviously hasn’t put a foot wrong and can’t be left out and neither can Don’t Doubt Mamma. Mahuta drew wide and did have a bit of leader’s bias to help out in the Carbine and whilst Don’t Doubt Mamma’s last start over a mile wasn’t what as expected, from a good gate here she’ll go better again but think the value is with Patch Adams. He’s Our Rokki appears to be working up to a good one and looks well placed.
1. PATCH ADAMS
2. DON’T DOUBT MAMMA
4. HE’S OUR ROKKII