Sandown Guineas Tips – 2013

To complete a sensational spring in terms of 3yo success, Darley will be counting on Champollion and race favourite, Paximadia ($3.30) in Saturday’s Sandown Guineas. Darley have already claimed the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (Complacent), the G1 1000 Guineas and G1 Flight Stakes (Guelph) and G1 Caulfield Guineas (Long John) thus far this season.

Also out to cap of a memorable spring carnival will be Melbourne Cup winning trainer Gai Waterhouse who has second favourite in the race, Equator at $4.20.

1. PAXIMADIA – K McEvoy (5)

He jumped well from a wide gate to lead all the way when successful resuming from a spell in the Listed Vintage Stakes (1410m) three starts back. The son of Commands than, despite drawing much better than his previous start, was ridden quieter next start in the Listed Gothic Stakes and, after sitting just behind the pace, got shuffled back on the turn and ran a disappointing eighth of ten. No chances were taken at his next and most recent start though when from the inside draw he held the lead and was never headed, winning the G3 Carbine Club (1600m) by a long neck over Hucklebuck. Will go forward again and the Caulfield track will suit his racing style. He’ll be very hard to beat.

: Paximadia winning the Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington ridden by Kerrin McEvoy and trained by Peter Snowden - (photo by Steven Dowden/Race Horse Photos Australia)
: Paximadia winning the Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington ridden by Kerrin McEvoy and trained by Peter Snowden - (photo by Steven Dowden/Race Horse Photos Australia)

 

2. CHAMPOLLION – S Arnold (8)

After two poor efforts resuming from a sixteen week spell, it appeared this colt by Exceed and Excel and turned his form around when running third to Paximadia in the Listed Vintage Stakes. Like his stable-mate he has since ran in both the Listed Gothic Stakes and G3 Carbine Club but unfortunately for connections, hasn’t been able to deliver on the promise of the Vintage Stakes effort and ran seventh of ten and last respectively. A win here would require a severe form reversal.

 

3. EQUATOR – N Rawiller (9)

Having drawn wide here, it will be interesting to see how keen this gelding by Northern Meteor is in the early stage as he too likes to race in front or on the speed. He was third up from a break when setting the pace in the G1 Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick two starts back but over the final furlong, was no match for winner Complacent and ran sixth (beaten 3.2 lengths). Three weeks later, he sat behind Paximadia and although trying valiantly in the run home, fell 1.4 lengths short in third place. Is a leading contender on that effort and had he drawn a little better, could easily have been the top pick.

 

4. BEST CASE – D Oliver (6)

The full brother to Strike The Stars, he is developing nicely under the care of Anthony Cummings. He found Eurozone and Criterion too good in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes three starts back before producing a good finish to oust Kirramosa (who won the Wakeful Stakes and VRC Oaks at her next two starts) right on the line in a BM 73 (1600m). After that effort, he took his place in the line-up for the G3 Carbine Club where from last on the turn, he closed steadily to run fourth (beaten 2 ¾ length). He’ll give them all a start again and need a hot speed up front or swoopers bias to winning here.

 

5. POMPEIUS – V Duric (10)

A colt by Magnus who is yet to win from five attempts however, judging by his tenacious effort last start in the Listed Connoisseur Stakes (1800m) at Flemington on Oaks Day, where he set the pace and fought hard to run second to Surge Ahead (beaten ¾ length), a win is not far away. Drawn wide here meaning that, if he were to lead again, he’ll have to work to cross or join Equator and Paximadia. He also drops a furlong in trip and rises in class and whilst he shouldn’t be a maiden for much longer, not sure he’ll break that status in this race.

 

6. APOLLO’S CHOICE – B Rawiller (11)

After winning on debut at Benalla back in May, the Shea Eden trained colt was spelled and returned to racing a month ago to make it two from two with success in a Kyneton BM 70 (1218m). Coming from a well back in the field and under 57.5kgs, the win earned the son of Choisir a start in last week’s Listed Hilton Hotels Stakes (1400m). From midfield he closed strongly, particularly over the last half a furlong to run a ½ length fourth behind Dothraki. He is obviously a horse with ability and third up, further improvement to come. This is a stiff test but gives the impression he may meet the challenge.

 

7. RYKER – D Dunn (1)

The well bred Gai Waterhouse trained runner had three starts in Sydney during the winter, with the pick of them being his third (at 20/1) behind Northern Glory in a 2yo Plate. He resumed in Victoria four weeks back and, as 5/4 favourite in a Seymour Maiden, led and lasted by a head. He then took the big step up in class and contested the Listed Hilton Hotels Stakes (1400m) where, as expected, he finished seventh and almost six lengths from the winner Dothraki. Expect he too well push forward from a good gate to take up a prominent position but as he did last start, will find the quality of race too rich.

 

8. INAFRENZY – C Symons (2)

He resumed from a nineteen week spell for Trainer John McArdle back in late October to record his first win by a 1 ¼ lengths win in a Cranbourne Maiden (1200m). That was his fifth race start and his sixth was in a BM 70 (1400m) at Sale where, under 58kgs, he settled toward the rear of the field before finishing well to run fourth (beaten 3.2 lengths) behind The Quarterback with Pompeius third. Pompeuis was subsequently good in Listed company and fancy this horse, who should appreciate the step up to the mile, also has improvement to offer. He might be one to add a little value into the multiples.

 

9. GABBLE – S Baster (3)

Sebring gelding who is a half brother to the handy Tariana (Group 3 and Listed placed) who caught the eye on debut where, as a 16/1 shot, he finished well to run a length second in a Bendigo Maiden (1400m) He returned to that track a little over a week later, same class and distance, to go one better and register a ¾ length win. Going well obviously but this is a big jump in grade on his first two efforts and rightly quoted at big odds.

 

10. DE LAGO STORM – (4)

The Curata Storm colt was spelled after failing on a heaving track when making his debut in a Warrnambool Maiden back in June but neither of his two runs since resuming from that break are encouraging for this race. He ran last in a St Arnaud Maiden before running fifth (beaten 1.2 lengths) in a Mortlake Maiden. Also nominated for a 2000m Maiden Plate at Donald this Sunday and would think that’s clearly the better option for him rather than lining up here where he’ll start triple figures in betting.

 

11. OUTLANDISH – C Williams (7)

Redoute’s Choice filly who has ran second in her two starts to date, a Echuca and Bendigo Maiden over 1200 and 1400m respectively. The latest was just over two weeks ago and she failed by only a nose after coming from last and whilst it appears she’ll win her fair share of races, I’m not sure at this stage of her career, that his will be one of them.

 

RACE OVERVIEW

Pace here could be solid depending on how keen Paximadia, Equator and Pompeius are to secure the lead. If the pace does get too hot, from gate five, McEvoy should have the opportunity to take a sit and he rates the one to beat. Going with Apollo’s Choice as the next best. He’ll be hoping that they take on Paximadia on up front and set a good tempo. That combined with the extra 200m should see him finishing hard. Equator has been good in all the right races and will be prominent but just has that awkward gate to contend with. Inafrenzy goes in as the last selection for some value. Think the Sharkbite gelding is still on the up and will get the chance here to run on.

1. PAXIMADIA

2. APOLLO’S CHOICE

3. EQUATOR

4. INAFRENZY

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