Rosehill Horse Racing Tips – 4/1/2014

A good card of racing has been assembled for Rosehill on Saturday, where the weather is fine, the track is good and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit. When the rail has been out at the past several meetings here, the leaders have dominated, so keep that in mind.

 

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Race One: Australian Turf Club Handicap (72) 1800m Form Guide

Back Me: Tough race to kick off the day. Putting former British galloper Emirates Art (Best Odds: $10.00) on top. Take away her effort in April and the rest of her runs in Australia have been excellent. Liked the way she whacked away when fourth to Darci Drama, who dominated the race from the front. Emirates Art meets that mare much better off at the weights.
Big Danger: Darci Drama (Best Odds: $2.60) does look the threat, because she did do some work in front at Canterbury, and being second up, that would have taken the juice out of your average horse, but this mare kept finding when asked. Should lead these or sit outside Easter Island, and she has that one covered.
Roughie: Mossmoney (Best Odds: $8.00) did absolutely nothing in that race Darci Drama won, but went to the trials on Christmas Eve and looked very good, finishing second and hitting the line strongly under a hold. She can certainly surprise here in a pretty thin race.

$250 Emirates Art Free Bet

Race Two: 2014 ATC Membership On Sale Plate 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: Was really taken by the win of Kumaon (Best Odds: $4.60) here a fortnight back. He was forced to sit three wide on the speed, shunted five wide on the turn, checked heavily 300m out, picked himself up and got the job done. Takes a very good horse to do what he did on debut. For mine, he is probably second to Earthquake as the best two year old we have seen from Darley this time in, and I’m confident he can get the job done here.
Big Danger: Fighting Sun (Best Odds: $2.30) is a beautifully bred colt on debut for Gai Waterhouse off the back of a five length trial win at Randwick on December 16. He glided over the heavy surface like Beau Zam, running away late. Interesting to note he has been backed for the Magic Millions, so my suggestion would be that if you think he’ll win here, then back him also for the Gold Coast feature race, because he’ll no doubt half his quote of $31 if successful.
Roughie: Baio (Best Odds: $15.00) hasn’t done much wrong in three career runs without winning. Really caught the eye on debut behind Magic Millions favourite Unencumbered, then had no luck at the Valley on Cox Plate Day before sitting wide and sticking on well when third to Mossfun in the Inglis Nursery. Drawn well, rock hard fit and does have the tough race experience.

 

$250 Kumaon Free Bet

 

Race Three: Tab Rewards Handicap (74) 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: Taking on Pentometer (Best Odds: $3.10) here and putting Senta Desert on top. He has been excellent in four runs back from a break, including a win over our big danger at Canterbury before running a game second at Kensington behind a real up and comer in Celtic Prince. Has the weight advantage, and being only fifth up, he should still relatively have fresh legs.
Big Danger: Runhardasun (Best Odds: $6.50) loomed to win two back, but didn’t want to beat off Senta Desert. He then ran here two weeks back and was gallant behind Pentometer, giving that horse the perfect drag into the race. Bigger field and a more genuine speed should help this horses cause, and he is a proven weight carrier at city level unlike Pentometer.
Roughie: Diamond Jim (Best Odds: $11.00) always produces the handy first up run, and it was more than handy when fifth to Mighty Lucky, beaten less than a length. Usually performs poorly second up, but given that first up effort was so good, he has to be included.

 

$250 Pentometer Free Bet

 

Race Four: Vinery Yearlings Handicap (75) 1500m Form Guide

Back Me: Best bet across Australia for me in Vilanova (Best Odds: $4.40) , who was very good first up after being gelded when third to Rolston and Two Blue. He was later found to have been galloped on, so that adds even more merit to the performance. He is a Group 1 performer from last year, definitely is stakes class, and should take care of this lot.
Big Danger: The Alfonso (Best Odds: $3.50) bolted in to break his maiden at benchmark level at Canterbury, then wasn’t given the best of rides by Schofield when an unlucky second at Kensington behind Frespanol. Up 100m in trip now, drawn better, and back on his home track.
Roughie: Knockout horse for me is Saralago (Best Odds: $16.00) for Team Hawkes, who has had absolutely no luck this time in. Was hard held behind a wall of horses first up, then got absolutely flattened on the home turn when about to make her run. If she can slot in from the barrier and get a clear run, she is certainly capable.

 

$250 Vilanova Free Bet

 

Race Five: Tab.com.au Handicap (75) 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: First of my tips based on the fact it will be no disadvantage to be up on the pace. Kencella (Best Odds: $4.80) was heavily backed last start at Canterbury, but was asked to do that little bit too much work outside a hot speed and was nabbed late by Inside Job, who has since run well. Should spear over from the wide barrier and either lead or sit outside Stay Schtum. Either way, she is the one for me.
Big Danger: Windswept (Best Odds: $5.00) is the trial horse for me. Loved the way he finished off in winning his trial comfortably on Christmas Eve, beating home He’s Your Man, who ran a cracker on Wednesday at Flemington. He should get the gun run just off the pace and prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Dream Choice (Best Odds: $14.00) was scratched from a similar race on Wednesday in preference of this, and connections may have pulled the right rein. He was a dominant winner at Scone after doing all the work out wide. He deserves another crack in town and can surprise.

 

$250 Kencella Free Bet

 

Race Six: Schweppes Handicap (95) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: The new tactics of riding of Tromso (Best Odds: $12.00) up on the pace have reaped some good rewards in recent times. He was a good winner of a 100k race on Oaks Day at Hawkesbury, freshened up, then ran a really solid fourth to a serious racehorse in Messene at Kensington. He should roll forward, get a lovely time either in front or in the slipstream of our roughie and prove hard to hold out.
Big Danger: Gangster’s Choice (Best Odds: $7.50) was a bit unlucky two weeks back when third to Villiers placegetter Limes. He was on the fence all the way, was probing for a run all of the way up the straight, and by the time he got out, the bird had flown. With more luck here, he is right in the mix.
Roughie: Kinnersley (Best Odds: $41.00) is better suited over further, but has won first up in the past and has looked quite forward in condition, placing in two trials. A win here, or a top four run, wouldn’t shock me.

 

$250 Tromso Free Bet

 

Race Seven: De Bortoli Wines Handicap (80) 1500m Form Guide

Back Me: The snip snip Rowie (Best Odds: $8.00) has received might just be the difference between him being a handy horse and a very good horse. He trialled nicely prior to his dominant first up win at Kensington, set up by a hectic speed from Number One Gun. Still, the way he really attacked the line was really encouraging and may have turned the corner.
Big Danger: Imperil (Best Odds: $4.50) is closing in on becoming a member of the milk drinking society, alongside the likes of Von Costa De Hero and Largo Lad. He has looked the winner at his past few, but just doesn’t want to go on with the job. Drawn the paint, looks the leader…he gets his chance.
Roughie: Nothing wrong with the way Two Blue (Best Odds: $6.50) has gone about at her past couple. Looked the winner but was nabbed on the post by stablemate Lucky News three back, then bumped into an above average filly in Miniature before running another game second to Rolston. Drops in weight, in flying form and should get a gun sit off the pace.

 

$250 Rowie Free Bet

 

Race Eight: Rosehill Gardens Handicap (75) 1350m Form Guide

Back Me: Ashamar (Best Odds: $11.00) was given an absolute peach ride by Bowman to get the job done at Canterbury last start. What he beat certainly wouldn’t stand up here, but that was his third run back from a five month break, so there should still be a bit of improvement left in him. Has barrier one, which is a huge advantage here.
Big Danger: Smart Moochi (Best Odds: $12.00) produced an unbelievable final 400m to sweep past his rivals for a most impressive win, then was the eye catcher late when flashing home from near last to run fifth to King Cobia, a leading chance in the Goldmarket at the Gold Coast. If they go hard in front, this is the one you want to be on, along with the roughie.
Roughie: Turbulent Jet (Best Odds: $12.00) lunged and won in a thrilling finish three back at Randwick, then was run off his legs early when a closing seventh behind Mecir at this track before beating home Smart Moochi when fourth to King Cobia. He is another who needs the speed on, but should get that here.

$250 Ashmar Free Bet

 

Best Bet: Vilanova

Next Best: Kumaon
Best Roughie: Rowie

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10

Leg Two:
1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7

Leg Three:
2, 4, 5, 9

Leg Four:
6, 11, 12, 14

$50 Investment=8.68% of the dividend if successful.

 

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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