Rosehill horse racing tips – 21/12/2013

Race One: Australian Turf Club Handicap 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: Laying Rule Book big time here and going with Pentometer. He was given a peach ride by Nash to get the job done first up, then was luckless last time out behind At All Costs, not getting any room at all in the straight when appearing to be bolting. Rises in grade, but has plenty of upside and should relish the extra distance and racing on his home track.
Big Danger: Auld Burns looked to be travelling big time last start at Caulfield, but got involved in a bumping duel on the home turn and he lost all confidence after that. This is without doubt the easiest race he has contested since coming to Australia, and with the claim, he is thrown in at the weights. Expect improvement.
Roughie: Easter Island deserves a crack at Saturday company after stringing together some excellent performances at the provincials and city midweeks, including a last start win over 2200m at Warwick Farm. Dropping back to 2000m should be perfect and the stable is flying.

$250 Rule Book Free Bet

Race Two: Schweppes Golden Gift 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: Best bet on the program for us in the shape of Queanbeyan galloper Quietly Brilliant, who reminds me of Karuta Queen in her younger days. They jump, run along, and keep going. Quietly Brilliant was indeed that on debut at Canberra, leading from the inside and giving nothing else a chance to win by seven lengths. The runner up in the race has since placed again and the runner up of the barrier trial prior ran a slashing placing behind the Magic Millions favourite Echo Gal at Warwick Farm. Very, very keen on this bloke.
Big Danger: Cyclone did all the work on debut at Kensington, sitting three wide on the speed yet fought on doggidly for third behind another leading Magic Millions hope, Unencumbered. Draws much better here, should press forward and prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Always pays to keep Grant Allard two year olds safe in calculations, because he has a very good strike rate with his juveniles. La Bella Rouge certainly fits that bill if her trial form is any indication. Drawn well and should get every chance from there.

$250 Quietly Brilliant Free Bet

Race Three: Tab Rewards Handicap (74) 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: It was hard not to be impressed by the debut win of Mardi at Canterbury. She pinged out from a wide barrier, worked hard to find the lead and the rail, kicked hard on the turn and showed some grit over the final 100m to cling on. It takes a good horse to win from a wide barrier over the short course at Canterbury, so I’m happy to be on her back.
Big Danger: Bring A Ring hasn’t been seen since November 30 where she took an age to wind up but found the line well late when third to Forget Maybe and Maysoon. Nearly a month between runs, and dropping back in distance, are the concerns, but she races best fresh.
Roughie: The interesting runner is clearly the Queensland filly Global Dream, who contested all the hot juvenile races up north and was very good without winning a big one. She resumed a fortnight back at Doomben and was just run off her legs, but her closing sectionals were good. Shouldn’t be too far away from the pace and is a live chance.

$250 Mardi Free Bet

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Race Four: Calm Aluminium Handicap (79) 1500m Form Guide

Back Me: All over Longshoreman here. Outstanding first up run, coming from well back against the bias on the Parks track at Morphettville, then got a long way back in a leader dominated race when fourth to Terravista, who placed in Stakes company at his next start. Been given a month to get over that run, freshened up, Nash on board…terribly hard to beat.
Big Danger: Doesn’t look to be much pace in the race so that’s why Imperil opened up about $3 and has been backed. He led most of the way last time out to only go down in the last couple of strides to Calvo. Meets that horse better at the weights and should get a dream run in front.
Roughie: You’ll Never is a bit of a money muncher for the punters, but he is never too far away from the action, like he was last start at Kensington when going down narrowly to Exceed And Exalt. First start on his home track too, so that should help his winning claims.

$250 Longshoreman Free Bet

Race Five: Become An ATC Sponsor Handicap (80) 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: Good little race here. Sticking with Calming Influence to repeat her dominant win at Kensington a fortnight back, leading all the way. Bit more speed in this race, so it’ll be interesting to see what Nash does. She is taking on the older mares and is being asked to carry 57kg, so my thinking is that he’ll take a sit. Whatever scenario, she’s the one to beat.
Big Danger: No better horse at taking money from punters than Omniscient, who resumes here for Darley off the back of a handy trial effort a couple of weeks back, settling well back before hitting the line late. She’ll be smothered away on the rail and looking to hit at them late.
Roughie: Nothing wrong with winning form, and in particular when they are on the seven day back up, so Holy Delusions has to be included. She was excellent last Saturday, coming from near last on the turn to grab them on the line. Rises a bit in weight and depth, but is one of only two last start winners in the race, so you she is a must for exotics.

$250 Calming Influence Free Bet

Race Six: 2014 ATC Membership On Sale Handicap (95) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Going for some value down the bottom in Territory. Loved his first up run, where he attacked the line between runners and won, then wasn’t suited by the slow tempo when a nice fourth to Emblems. Should get a more genuine tempo here, drops big time in weight, in form, stable and jockey are flying…happy to take $11.
Big Danger: Limes loomed to win the Villiers last week, but just couldn’t quite get past Ninth Legion in a thrilling finish. Tumbles in grade here hence has to go up 5kg in weight, which is the concern, along with the fact he hasn’t won since the Hawkesbury Guineas, but gets his chance here.
Roughie: I liked My Destiny two weeks back at Kensington off the back of a good trial placing, but he only plugged to the line when a distant fifth to rising star Messene. Returns to a track which he excels on and gets some weigh relief along with a wide barrier, which may help.

$250 Territory Free Bet

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Race Seven: Tab.com.au Handicap (75) 1350m Form Guide

Back Me: Darciwood should win, and probably will win, but my only concern is that he doesn’t hit the line. Why he hasn’t is the fact that he has been forced to sit closer to the speed, which isn’t his go. He needs a bunny to chase, which we saw on debut at Geelong where he spanked them. If he gets a smother up and a clear run here, he’ll win.
Big Danger: Had Darciwood not been in the race, I’d be all over Vilanova. He has had the snip snip since the Spring Champion and looks to be a real racehorse now based on how strongly he hit the line in a barrier trial. On his best form, he’d give this an almighty shake, and now he has been gelded, the screws in his head may be focused on being a racehorse.
Roughie: Nothing wrong with the way Two Blue has gone about at her past couple. Looked the winner but was nabbed on the post by stablemate Lucky News two back, then bumped into an above average filly in Miniature. Bowman sticks, should lead these, and give a great sight.

$250 Darciwood Free Bet

Race Eight: Rosehill Gardens Handicap (84) 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Skip Town was perhaps ridden a touch too close to the speed last start, and was left with nothing for the final 200m, so to finish as close as she did was excellent. Ichikawa jumps back on now, drawn well, drops in weight…looks a great each-way bet.
Big Danger: Emblems does look the threat thanks to his dominant all the way win at Kensington two weeks back. Drawn a touch awkwardly here, but is in form and should be in the mix provided he can get some luck from the wide barrier.
Roughie: Mount Nebo resumes here for Allan Denham and looked very sharp in a recent barrier trial win at Newcastle, and ran fast time. Overall stats at the track, distance, conditions and first up are excellent, weighted nicely, drawn well…no reason why he can’t win.

$250 Skip Town Free Bet

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