Feature race on the first day of the Grafton Carnival is the Ramornie Handicap. Last year’s winner Howmuchdoyouloveme has returned to defend his title and despite this year being allocated 60.5kgs, his current form suggests he’ll be hard to beat again. He’s the $4.20 favourite just in advance of last start winner Big Bonanza ($5.00). Early betting has also seen good support for Border Rebel who has firmed from $16.00 into $10.00
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1. HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME – B Avdulla (10)
After returning from a seven week break the Written Tycoon 4yo has been the impressive winner of the Listed Lightning Handicap (1000m) and last start, under 60kgs and on a slow track, he led and dug deep late to record a head win over River Lad in the G3 Healy Stakes. Likes to race in or close to the lead but has plenty of pace drawn underneath him here and will need to run them down with a big weight.
2. ADEBISI – M Cahill (8)
Desleigh Forster trained galloper who is first up from a fifteen week spell. He supports an impressive fresh record of four wins from seven starts and including his last three first up runs however, this race is the toughest of his fresh runs to date. Will shoot to the front and any edge off the track should prove an advantage. Won the listed Razor Sharp and Group 3 Rubiton Stakes last prep.
3. RIVER LAD – E Wilkinson (3)
Has been a model of consistency this preparation and after winning consecutive races early this prep, has ran a place in Black Type races three of his past four starts including at his last start, a head second to Howmuchdoyouloveme in the G3 Healy Stakes. Meets that horse a 1kgs better and drawn to get a lovely run just of the pace – he should be well in the mix.
4. YOUTHFUL JACK – R Thompson (6)
Rising eight year old who returns to racing after a thirteen week spell and who ran fourth in this race last year, beaten 4 ½ lengths under 58kgs. Drops to 55kgs and two winning barrier trials, he has indicated that he’s wound up for a first up tilt at a race after a thirteen week spell however, from eight previous fresh runs, he’s only won one – that coming a long time ago.
5. BORDER REBEL – T Bell (1)
He ran third to Satin Shoes in the Ortensia Stakes three starts back during the Scone Carnival and backed that up with a close up fourth (beaten ½ length) behind Galah and Conservatorium. He then stepped out here at Grafton last week but on a slow track and under a steadier of 62kgs (drops to 54kgs here) could do no more than run fourth behind War Ends. Drawn well today and the weight drop and drier track will be in his favour.
6. GUNDY SON – P Hammersley (11)
Back-maker who hasn’t been far away in three runs back from a spell. He finished hard behind Pentasia in the Listed Chief De Beers (1110m) before again producing a strong finish to run 1.2 lengths behind Howmuchdoyouloveme and River Lad in the G3 Healy Stakes. Should appreciate the strong temp up front and a drier surface but, has only won one of his twenty-one starts.
7. PENTASIA – C Reith (13)
5yo mare who got a dream run when resuming from a spell and recorded a length win in the Listed Chief De Beers before starting 7/2 fav in the Lightning Handicap and again, getting every chance in the run but was unable to run down Howmuchdoyouloveme and finished fifth (beaten 2.7 lengths). Freshened up since the Lightning (a month ago now) but drawn wide and will not get the sweet run like she has done in her past two.
8. CELTIC DANCER – J Byrne (4)
His last two wins were in May and June last year – both on heavy tracks and he was back on these conditions last start when running second (beaten 3 ¼ lengths) behind Someday in the Glasshouse Handicap. That was his best run this preparation and will need similar conditions to be considered a chance here.
9. WAR ENDS – (12)
After finishing well down the track in Rockhampton under 59kgs, he travelled to Grafton last week and on a slow track, was able to lead all the way to record a length win over Ideal Position and Dinky Mink. Impressive win last start but from his wide draw today, he’ll have to work too hard to secure the lead – the position from which he posts his best results.
10. BIG BONANZA – P Robl (7)
An honest Stratum gelding who seldom runs a bad race and recorded a strong three length win last start at Rosehill when leading all the way in a BM 85 under 58kgs. That win took him to nine wins from twenty-eight starts and from gate seven Robl, who rode him to victory last start, should be able to get a nice spot off the speed. Drops nicely in the weights on his last start victory and is challenging for favouritism.
11. SOLEDAD – K McEvoy (5)
Darley representative who is never far from the money having won or run a place in fourteen of his nineteen starts. He hasn’t started since running third at Kembla Grange in an Open Handicap back in March but going on his past performances and fresh runs in particular, combined with the likelihood of a nice run he’ll be one of better chances at a good price.
12. LIESELE – G Colless (15)
Rounded out last campaign with three consecutive wins however, finding it harder to break through this time in. She settled handy from her good draw when fifth behind Howmuchdoyouloveme in the G3 Healy Stakes before being caught wide and working in the run and weakening to finish last behind Doubtfilly in the Listed Ascot Handicap. Will not get any easy run from the widest draw.
13. SKATING ON ICE – C Lever (2)
After winning a BM 90 race on the Gold Coast three starts back, the Les Kelly trained galloper produced a career best effort when second to Peron in the Listed Gai Waterhouse Stakes but found the opposition of the G1 Tatt’s Tiara well beyond her and finishing eleventh of sixteen behind Red Tracer. Much better suited back to this grade and conditions but happy to put others in front of her.
14. IDEAL POSITION – T Treichel (14)
Resumed from a six week spell with a pleasing effort, closing well from the trail of the field to run War Ends to a length here at Grafton last week. Will get a long way back from his wide draw and whilst he’ll enjoy the strong speed and the step up in trip, find it hard to see him running down a few handy ones here.
15. PRIVATE EXPRESS – M Bennett (9)
Has won three of his five starts including a comfortably win here at Grafton in Open company three starts back but this is clearly the strongest race he has contested in his twenty-two start career and likely to struggle.
OVERVIEW
Plenty of speed here with Adebisi, Pentasia, Border Rebel and Big Bonanza all keen to take up a forward position. Trailing them should be River Lad ($7.50) and Soledad ($9.00) Both are very consistent performers and have proven competitive in this grade previously. They should get there opportunity here in the run and be in the finish at good each way value. Howmuchdoyouloveme given the combination of weight and gate has eased in early markets from $3.50 to $4.20.