The laws of probability favour Chris Waller snaring a third successive Chelmsford Stakes on Saturday, but bookmakers aren’t convinced.
Sydney’s premier trainer has stacked the bases and will have six of the nine runners in the Group Two race.
But despite his almighty presence, pre-post markets have just two of his horses ranked among the leading quartet of chances.
Entirely Platinum, the lone Chelmsford runner for Hawkes Racing, has opened a firm $2.30 favourite despite facing his first weight-for-age test.
Co-trainer Michael Hawkes concedes the conditions of Saturday’s race present an unknown factor for his charge but one the stable has been mindful of when deciding to run.
Entirely Platinum was also down to contest the Premier’s Cup last Saturday but bypassed that race in favour of the Chelmsford.
“It’s a big test but he would have carried 59 (kilograms) last start in the 1800-metre race so we decided when he got that weight to wait and take on weight-for-age over the mile,” Hawkes said.
“He’s got to carry it anyway so he may as well take on weight-for-age.”
Entirely Platinum’s racing pattern is also to his advantage.
The horse races on-speed in a contest devoid of an obvious leader.
Royal Descent ($4.60) and Sacred Falls ($6) are the highest rated of Waller’s contingent with the David Payne-trained Criterion also prominent at $6.
Waller expects his two top picks in betting to stake winning claims but concedes Entirely Platinum and Criterion will be tough.
“Entirely Platinum is a very good horse and so is Criterion,” Waller said.
“A horse like Entirely Platinum, I would say, is a really genuine Caulfield Cup horse and a horse who could win the Caulfield Cup would probably be winning a Chelmsford.”
Waller’s remaining runners are headed by last year’s race winner Hawkspur and Bagman who comes to Sydney after two solid wins in Melbourne.
Laser Hawk for Joe Pride is the only other runner from an outside stable.