Perth Cup 2014 day Tips – Ascot racecourse

Australian racing kicks off the calender year with the $500,000 Group 2 Perth Cup (2400m) at Ascot. Black Tycoon will go around as favourite for the race for Justin Warwick and Damien Oliver, with Olly looking to win his second Cup.

 

Race One: Westspeed Plate 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: Kamballie (Best Odds: $2.25) on top for me. Didn’t mind her debut effort over the 1000m here on December 21 where she sat four wide with cover at the back. She was forced wider on the turn and worked to the line nicely late, suggesting an extra 100m and a better draw will aid her next time out. Well she gets that here and Olly takes the ride.
Big Danger: Red Puplisher (Best Odds: $8.50) led up the four wide lane in that race mentioned above, and for a two year old, you’d expect it to fade and finish last, but this bloke stuck to the task very gamely and ended up only getting beat three lengths. More aggressive rider takes over now, drawn much better and has tough race experience on his side.
Roughie: Musketalife (Best Odds: $14.00) looks to be a filly who will be better suited over further based on the way she has trialled, but is bred to be a good one and was quite good in her latest barrier trial.

$250 Kamballie Free Bet

Race Two: Golden Karnup Handicap (66) 2200m Form Guide

Back Me: Backing Olly again, this time with former Lloyd Williams galloper Toned (Best Odds: $4.60), who has really found his home over in the West, in particular his past few runs which has seen him hit a real purple patch in form. Loved the way he attacked the line to win at Bunbury last start. Drawn beautifully, back up to suitable distance, small field…perfect.
Big Danger: Jim ‘N’ Jim (Best Odds: $10.00) is fourth emergency for the Perth Cup and unlikely to gain a run, so he’ll run here and is a massive threat given how hard he attacked the line late when third to Bobby Benzine, who he meets much better at the weights.
Roughie: Bobby Benzine (Best Odds: $12.00) does have to go in, because he did beat the two mentioned above him last start over the 2400m. Problem is that he meets him worse off at the weights, but that was his fifth run from a little break, so there may be a tad more improvement.

 

$250 Backing Olly Free Bet

 

Race Three: Golden River Development Handicap (63) 1400m Form Guide

Back Me: Mountain Haze (Best Odds: $4.00) for me. Jumped quickly in distance from 1100 first up to 1400 second up. In that second up run, he copped alot of pressure in front and was left a sitting shot for Two Tone Blonde, who swooped and nailed him on the peg. He should be much fitter for that outing now, looks the leader again, and despite rising in weight, he should take some beating.
Big Danger: Bells Tower (Best Odds: $4.60) had trialled brilliantly prior to his narrow first up win over the 1000m here. But he did receive a bad check soon after the start and lost his balance, so for a debutante to pick himself up after that shows he is a good horse. He quickly rises to 1400m here second up, which is a concern, but the Taylor/Brown combination has been so lethal during the Summer.
Roughie: Mr Balfire (Best Odds: $13.00) hadn’t had much luck in two runs after a Northam win when he stepped out here a couple of weeks back and ran an excellent third to Wild Stratus, touted as one of the real stars of the future in the West. No stars here, and drawn to get a nice off the speed, so he can threaten.

 

$250 Mountain Haze Free Bet

 

Race Four: Golden Square Handicap (66) 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Should be plenty of speed here, and the horse who should get the dream run off that tempo is Silver Speck (Best Odds: $3.60), who was quite game in winning first up after a six month break with a hefty impost. He’ll trim up much better for that outing, and as said earlier, he’ll get the run of the race.
Big Danger: Full Clip (Best Odds: $17.00) is another who should get a nice sit off the tempo, maybe one out one back. He was gallant behind Silver Speck last time out and does meet him better at the weights, so he looks the threat.
Roughie: They might be too nippy for him fresh, but keep an eye on the former Anthony Cummings runner Paseo Del Prado (Best Odds: $15.00), who is on debut in the West for Trevor Andrews, and he looked very sharp in winning a recent Belmont barrier trial. As I said, he is better suited over further, but if they go hard enough, and if his fitness levels are high enough, he can easily beat these.

 

$250 Silver Speck Free Bet

 

Race Five: Golden Group Handicap (72) 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Great each way bet for me in Amorino (Best Odds: $5.00), a former Sydney galloper who has had a couple runs over in Perth and has been excellent in each, in particular last time out where he was caught three wide and forced near the centre of the track before running on powerfully late. Remember, he finished within four lengths of Pierro in the Golden Slipper. He is ready to win now.
Big Danger: The Blues (Best Odds: $4.80) is a hot and cold type who has been frustrating for punters. Looked the winner last start only to be grabbed on the peg by a classy animal in Shining Knight, who will be nearly the favourite in the Summer Scorcher. Drops a fair bit in depth here, drawn well…gets his chance.
Roughie: Really liked the way Honest Lies (Best Odds: $6.00) hit the line first up behind Magnifisio after settling well back in the run. That horse has since won again in much stronger company, and goes around in the next race also so the form stands up really well for this and is a second up winner.

 

$250 Amorino Free Bet

 

Race Six: Summer Scorcher 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Best bet on the card for me in the shape of Shining Knight (Best Odds: $3.60). Looked in need of the run first up when he loomed to win, but tired the last little bit. He then made amends with a strong win against Magnifisio before being completely luckless behind one of the worlds best sprinters in Buffering when fifth in the Winterbottom. He was unbelievable in winning last start, coming from a near impossible spot on the turn to win on the line. He’ll sit back, but the pace will be electric here, so he’ll run on hard and hopefully get up to win.
Big Danger: Magnifisio (Best Odds: $3.30) was given a plum ride by Jason Brown to win the Crawford last start. He grabbed the 1/1 soon after settling and never looked in danger. He has the rails draw, so that should offset carrying 57kg. On the weights, he won’t beat Shining Knight, but in running, he’ll have a break on that horse, so that is his advantage.
Roughie: For the first time this prep, Beach Express (Best Odds: $17.00) has drawn a decent barrier. I’m expecting him to get on the back of Magnifisio and follow that runners every move. Form doesn’t read too well, but a soft on the fence and normal luck could spark improvement.

 

$250 Shining Knight Free Bet

 

Race Seven: Perth Cup 2400m Form Guide

Back Me: Really keen on Rohan (Best Odds: $6.00) here. Generally, the better class horses struggle in the Perth Cup, but gee this bloke looks beautifully placed. Finished a half length behind Ihtsahymn in the Kingston Town, then beaten two lengths by that horse in the Cox Stakes, the traditional and proven lead up to this race. Drops 3kg from those two runs, and only has to give away 2kg to a bunch of plodders. If he can slot and get some cover, and a clear run, game over as far as I’m concerned.
Big Danger: Black Tycoon (Best Odds: $6.00) looks the logical threat after his game fourth in the Cox Stakes. He never looked the winner, but he found the line well enough to suggest he’ll be a major force in this race. Olly takes the ride, drawn well, and has the weight pull on Rohan.
Roughie: The massive query runner is Marden (Best Odds: $13.00), formerly with Chris Waller but is now with Adam Durrant. He was last seen earlier in December, winning an average race at Caulfield, but did it well enough. On his best form, he is a chance in a race like this, and Durrant has a wonderful record in the big races over in the West.

 

$250 Rohan Free Bet

 

Race Eight: La Trice Classic 1800m Form Guide

Back Me: Bippo No Bungus (Best Odds: $8.50) has been crying out for a longer distance in each of her runs this time in, and she finally gets that here. She was rewarded for her consistent runs with a strong win in the Starstruck, the lead up to this event. Will have to go back from the draw, but with a cuddly ride, she can unleash a big burst and looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: Looking Ahead (Best Odds: $10.00) is a tough and gritty mare who has been around the money in a couple of staying races in recent starts, the Towton Cup and St Leger respectively. Looked a bit unlucky last week in the St Leger but was beaten by a beauty in Crumpet O’Reilly, who will probably win the Perth Cup in 2015. Dropping back to 1800m is a little question mark, but is rock hard fit and Harvey takes over.
Roughie: The Team Cummings galloper Rosalie (Best Odds: $41.00) didn’t have the best of luck in the Starstruck when back on the rail and with nowhere to go. She does have the Cummings polish, and in a pretty thin race, she could surprise at odds.

 

$250 Bippo No Bungus Free Bet

 

Race Nine: Tabtouch.com.au Handicap (72) 1500m Form Guide

Back Me: Sail Maker (Best Odds: $5.00) might be seven years old, but gee he is a beauty which you’d love to own. He worked home strongly a fortnight back when third to Veeten, who has franked the form since. Sail Maker was later found to have cast a plate, so there were excuses. Looks beautifully placed here, but Jerry Noske takes the ride now and Ben Patterson, the regular rider, is off, so that’s the only worry.
Big Danger: The drop back to 1500m will suit World Domination (Best Odds: $8.50) perfectly here. He loomed to win last, but just couldn’t quite go on with it late, so coming back 100m in distance looks ideal. On the minimum, drawn well for an in form stable…hard to beat here for me.
Roughie: They have figured out Always A Smile (Best Odds: $7.50) and how to ride him…get him some cover. He won his first two runs this time in impressively at Bunbury, then raced in the same race World Domination contested and rattled from near last to finish fifth. Drops 3kg in weight, and 100m in distance, so he has to go in as a threat.

 

$250 Sail Maker Free Bet

 

Best Bet: Shining Knight
Next Best: Rohan

Best Roughie: Amorino

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 9

Leg Two:
2, 3

Leg Three:
1, 2, 3, 6, 9

Leg Four:
2, 4, 7, 9, 12

$50 Investment=50% of the dividend if successful.

 

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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