Caulfield racecourse will host Saturday’s feature Victorian meeting on Saturday in which we see a quality day of racing headline by the Group 2 PB Lawrence Stakes which features the return of current Melbourne Cup favourite Puissance De Lune who will likely jump as favourite in the race. We also see the running of the Vain Stakes, Quezette Stakes and the Cockram Stakes.
Weather looks to be kind to Melbourne over the next day with just a small chance of light rain so we will be racing most likely on a Dead track come race time.
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Race One: Rsl Hcp (bm90) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Kukla has been unlucky at her last two starts both of which she has incurred trouble throughout the run. She drops weight from last start where she put in a big run but found trouble and probably should have won the race. With some luck she will go very close here.
Don’t Back Me: Love For Ransom goes up 4kg from last start and she is yet to place at Caulfield from three tries so i am happy to leave her out of my selections here.
Big Danger: Text’n Hurley is a lightly raced mare who continues to improve from every run. She looks very well placed here once again in a race that bookies have got spot on in their markets.
Roughie: Bia Diamond continues to disappoint me although she is again well suited in this race and im happy to give her another shot at $15 in a winnable race on Saturday.
$250 Kukla Free Bet
Race Two: Legacy 2013 Badge Appeal Hcp 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Bit Of Hell had his first start in Australia last time out and i thought his run was very good despite being held up in the straight. Drawn barrier 1 here so will get an easy run in transit and he is yet to miss a placing from fourteen starts and prove too good agains this field. The $6 on offer look exceptional value.
Don’t Back Me: Chasse has had seven tries over the mile without a win and he meets quite a talented small field here so things wont be any easier for him on Saturday thus im leaving him out of my selections.
Big Danger: Alpha Proxima had his first try over the mile at Moonee Valley last start in which he passed the test with flying colours winning comfortably after leading throughout. Should be able to do the same here and be hard to beat.
Roughie: Pakal’s first run in Australia last start was very promising he looks a good stayer who will benefit from further distance although he looked forward enough to win a race like this on his way up the grades.
$250 Bit Of Hell Free Bet
Race Three: Winslow Constructors Hcp 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Anagold went back to the tail last start and made steady ground in the straight. She will improve with the extra distance here and from barrier 1 and Glen Boss on board she will be tough to beat at $13 which is great value.
Don’t Back Me: First Course has had ten starts on a good track which he finds today without a placing so racing in town and taking that stat into account im happy to leave him out.
Big Danger: Bells Of Troy will need a bit of luck from barrier 12 although his run lasts start made a statement that he will be winning soon and this is a very winnable race for him.
Roughie: Noble Park hasn’t shown much this preparation but he has been building up for a race over this distance and he has found a relatively weak field. He will enjoy being bakc on top of the ground and will go close here at double figure odds.
$250 Anagold Free Bet
Race Four: Legacy 90th Anniv. Vain Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Safeguard has won his only two career starts both times very impressively. He returns here against a decent small field although based on last preparation his class will get him over the line on Saturday with the $3.30 on offer looking good value.
Don’t Back Me: Hill Spy won at Morphettville impressively last start but this is a massive step up in class from that race so im prepared to leave him out at $5 until he proves himself in this company.
Big Danger: Fast ‘n’ Rocking is still a maiden but he had contested the best 2yo races last preparation and this race apart from the favourite looks a much easier task to break his maiden status in.
Roughie: Duran is an exceptionally bred colt being out of the mare Circles Of Gold who has been given plenty of time to mature. Thrown into a good race first up and i doubt he can win but i expect him to be finishing well late to perhaps snatch a placing at odds.
$250 Safeguard Free Bet
Race Five: Lister Quezette Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Metastasio was beaten as a short priced favourite first up this preparation but she did a lot wrong in that race and the increase in distance will suit her better as well. Looks good odds of $5.50 and im happy to give her another chance here.
Don’t Back Me: Spirit Of Heaven won a decent form race at Sandown on debut although that run was on a heavy in mid week company. She faces a good field of fillies here so im willing to risk here at the odds of $4.60.
Big Danger: Swing Vote didn’t really settle in her run in the Blue Diamond Prelude and did a lot wrong which cost her a few lengths. Has been given time to mature from that run and i expect her to come back a better horse here and she looks great value at $10.
Roughie: Chloe In Paris will be having her first start here and it’s not often do you see Ciaron Maher accept a first starter in a race like this which makes me think this filly has a ton of ability and should be kept safe at double figure odds.
$250 Metastasio Free Bet
Race Six: P.b. Lawrence Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Launay’s run i thought was very good last start and history suggest he puts in a much better effort second up which he will be here. From barrier 1 he will get an easy run in transit and i think he can hit the lead in the straight and hold off those from the back which suggests the $7 is good value.
Don’t Back Me: Second Effort wont get the rain he needs to win this race. He doesn’t have a good record on a dry track which it is more than likely going to be come race time so im happy to bet around him.
Big Danger: Puissance De Lune is a very good horse so he cannot be left out in this race although i feel over the 1400m and at Caulfield he may need to make up too many lengths in the straight to win this race, but watch for him over further.
Roughie: High Esteem has gone for a bath in the betting but i feel he is now out to what is a good price. He will race on speed and has a very good winning record. Lightly raced and should have improved since last preparation and could be the horse to upstage those in the market.
$250 Launay Free Bet
Race Seven: Regal Roller Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Dany The Fox races well fresh which he is on Saturday and from barrier 6 will be able to sit just off the leaders in a race that there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed in. Will get every chance with Glen Boss on board and i doubt the $11 on offer will last long.
Don’t Back Me: Amah Rock will be returning after 8-9 months off and it has been reported that he has had a chip out of his knee removed. Taking those two things into account im happy to bet around him until he proves that he is sound.
Big Danger: Academy Jack put in a massive run last start under weight for age conditions. He drops 4.5kg since that run and looks well suited in this race and looks the horse to beat.
Roughie: Colicchio won very well on debut at the end of last year then was given a lot of time to mature from the run. Will come back a better horse here and looks a very talented galloper thus has to be included at $19.
$250 Dany The Fox Free Bet
Race Eight: W.w. Cockram Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Bonaria has contested some very good races in her career and this looks to be a bit of a step back from those races. She doesn’t have the best first up form but there looks to be good speed in this race which will suit her so i think the $21 being bet around her is good each way value.
Don’t Back Me: Octavia gapped them last start but she goes up 5kg from that run and finds a tougher field here so at the $3 bookmakers are offering im happy to leave her out.
Big Danger: Lady Melksham has proven she is a very talented galloper, although i think punters will be taking a risk she has come back as good as last preparation after cracking her skull last start if she is right she should be winning.
Roughie: Oasis Bloom is probably the most talented horse in the field and although she has had her issues i think the $21 on offer is very good value and should be taken for a percentage of your bet on the race, if you are betting around her.
$250 Bonaria Free Bet
Best Bet: Safeguard
Next Best: Bit Of Hell
Best Roughie: Dany The Fox
