The central question for form analysts is which Paradoxium will appear for the stallion-defining sprint at Flemington. While Saturday is designated as Victoria Derby Day, the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) is the highly anticipated event, with its winner a strong candidate for future $30 million stallion deals.
Paradoxium, a colt sired by Extreme Choice, possesses the credentials to be such a prospect, evidenced by his decisive win in the Poseidon Stakes (1100m) at Flemington last month. Trainer Bjorn Baker then brought the colt back to Sydney for the Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) at Rosehill on October 10, but he failed to meet expectations, missing a top-three finish.
Having resettled in Melbourne just over a week ago, Paradoxium reaffirmed his capabilities in an 800m jump-out at Flemington last Friday, easily outpacing his rivals who were kept under restraint. This performance strongly suggested the return of his earlier impressive form.
Baker is well-acquainted with the path to Coolmore Stud Stakes victory, having achieved it with Ozzmosis in 2023. Ozzmosis, similar to Paradoxium, had experienced a defeat in the Roman Consul Stakes before a confidence-boosting Flemington jump-out preceding his major success.
“He’s a fast horse,” Baker commented on Paradoxium. “He won really well down the straight the first time and it was 800 (metres) the jump-out and you can look into it too much, but he’s going well and he’s a lot fitter for his last run.
“It’s a big ask. It’s a hard race to win the Coolmore, but I’m very much following what I did with Ozzmosis going through the Roman Consul and then a jump-out. Ozzmosis was very impressive, albeit from back in the field and made ground when he had the jump-out. It’s a big day, the Coolmore, but I love the horse. He’s very fast and hopefully he can utilise that speed.”
Baker indicated that the 1200m trip presents a query for Paradoxium on Saturday, admitting that a slightly shorter distance would be more favourable. “It is a question mark, no doubt about it,” Baker conceded. “I wish it was 1100 metres because he is exceptionally quick. He’s got a high speed. He’ll be better for his last run, and he’s won at 1200 metres before. He won the Group 2 Todman as a two-year-old, so we know he can get the trip, it’s just whether he can get it against these top line three-year-olds.”
With the Coolmore Stud Stakes on the horizon, punters can explore the available racing odds at various Australian betting sites.