Edged out in heart-stopping finishes to both the Darley and Lightning, Spieth surely deserves a change of luck in the Newmarket Handicap (Race 7) over 1200m as Melbourne’s autumn carnival reaches a crescendo at Flemington on Saturday.
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The talented chestnut, a winner of five of his 10 starts to date, has been all the rage in betting and appears set to go off favourite despite trainer Bryce Heys’ admission he’ll have to run a ‘career peak’ to nab his first Group 1.
The Warwick Farm-based trainer bemoaned a weight allocation of 55.5kgs and we’re inclined to agree, given he will carry more than last year’s winner The Quarterback and an inside draw may also count against him on the day.
It’s worth noting though, that seven of the last 11 winners have carried 56kgs or more in the race which implies that Spieth is in this up to his ears.
Still recovering from Hey Doc’s win in last weekend’s Australian Guineas, we’re nonetheless keen to take Spieth on and are challenging the punters to give us one last thrashing down there before attention switches to Sydney for the Slipper and The Championships.
Second pick Extreme Choice will represent the Mick Price stable at the expense of Flying Artie, who was withdrawn at the start of the week due to a lung infection.
Despite spotting Sheidel too much of a start, this colt really caught the eye with a fast finishing third in the Oakleigh Plate first-up and will have the services of the flying Joao Moreira.
While three-year-olds have performed admirably in the Newmarket of late, he was well beaten in the Coolmore Stud Classic in his only previous go down the straight and that, combined with the late decision to accept, gives us reason to oppose him as well.
With Corey Brown once again in the saddle, the likeable Terravista has been popular with punters at double-figure prices as he looks to complete the Lightning-Newmarket double.
Unsurprisingly, that race has been a solid form guide for the Newmarket in recent times with Brazen Beau and Hay List coming off second-placed finishes to go one better over the 1200m while Black Caviar completed the double back in 2011.
We have plenty of respect for the horse and expect him to run well again given his proven pedigree with this style of racing.
Indeed, the same must be said of Illustrious Lad, who has been a bit of a sleeper in betting for this race given his lack of reputation relative to some bigger names.
Headed by Star Turn around the 300m mark, we felt he stuck to his task gamely in the Lightning and he drops a sizeable 5.5kgs off that run.
He is another horse who handles Flemington well and has probably found his right price now at around the 8.00 mark.
Of the others, The Quarterback has done us plenty of favours in at Unibet headquarters over the years but a serious barrier mishap prior to the Lightning put a real dent into his preparation.
History suggests that it is virtually impossible for a horse to win this either first-up or in consecutive years but we’re interested to see how he fares.
While the chestnut Redkirk Warrior, who has had campaigns in both Europe and Hong Kong, is another horse we have our eye on after his win in the Sandown Stakes last November.
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Tips:
- Spieth
- Sheidel
- Terravista
- Illustrious Lad