Melbourne’s forecast looms as the key factor in whether Nadal gets the opportunity to reverse the result on Hedged in next Saturday’s $200,000 Standish Handicap at Flemington.

The Ciaron Maher stable is preparing the five-year-old son of Xtravagant as though he will line up in the 1200-metre Group 3, while keeping a close eye on the weather predicted in the lead-up.

With temperatures expected to climb beyond 40 degrees midweek before easing into much milder raceday conditions, along with the possibility of showers, Maher’s assistant trainer Jack Turnbull said suitable ground would likely be crucial for the gelding to take his place.

“It’s an option, six furlongs down the straight (appeals), but it’s more weather-dependent,” Turnbull said from Geelong, where the track rated a Good 3 on Saturday.

“If the ground was to be like today, you’d probably wait. We’d love a drop of rain and we’re under no pressure, because he could really just keep poking along through autumn and through winter even.

“He’s being prepped for it, but whether or not we do go, we’ll have to see.”

Nadal produced his strongest effort of the campaign when runner-up to Hedged, who is also heading towards the Standish, in the Listed Christmas Stakes (1200m) on Boxing Day, and Turnbull said the 2½-length defeat was far more encouraging than it appeared on paper.

“He was good, he just got back and had to run through a bit of traffic, but the winner was pretty impressive,” Turnbull said.

“It was much better. He’s probably at his peak for fitness, now we’ve just got maintain that and hold his action.

“He went out last prep for knee issues, so it’s a matter of us just holding that balance, which we have.

“He’s been fine at the moment, but to run him on a fast track would probably be a chance to undo him.”

Even if Nadal does not line up, Maher could still have representation in the Standish with the stable assessing options for Extratwo.

The six-year-old daughter of Toronado also contested the Christmas Stakes, finishing sixth and a length behind Nadal, and Turnbull said the team is weighing up the most suitable path.

“Either we run there or there’s a 1200 or a 1400 (benchmark) 84 the week after we could claim in,” Turnbull said.

“She’s on the borderline of being a Listed, Group 3 mare in the right class and race, but we just need to place her as best we can.”

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