Group l racing in Australia for the 2014/15 season kicks off this Saturday at Caulfield with the running of the $400,000 Group l Memsie Stakes (1400m). The top class Team Hawkes galloper Messene heads betting at around the $4 mark ahead of Boban and Moment of Change at $6. All three runners were fantastic when resuming and will take a power of beating, but there certainly are some decent challengers, headed by gutsy mare Sweet Idea, who beat home Messene and Boban first up.
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Race One: The Cove Hotel Handicap (78) 1400m
Back Me: Putting Veuvelicious on top. She showed what a good filly she is during the Autumn with a couple of high quality wins, with one of those being in the Fernhill at Randwick during the Championships. She backed up seven days later in the Champagne, but given it was her first prep, her grand final was probably the Fernhill. Loved the way she went about it in the Cranbourne trial last week behind Eloping, and 1400m first up tells me she is forward enough to win fresh, and we know she has the quality hence why she is carrying 60kg.
Big Danger: Amicus did enough I thought first up on her home track at Rosehill when third to Press Report and Liberation. She was outclassed behind those two, but stuck it out gamely despite being well held. Comes to Melbourne now which is interesting from the Waller camp. I’d say that’s because they want to avoid the wet weather. Very impressive when produced second up last prep and a repeat effort would see her go close.
Roughie: Winesearch defied a late betting drift to win first up at Morphettville, then ran on that track again three weeks later and went down narrowly to a real up and comer in Deheiros, who looks as if he’ll be competitive at blacktype level in Melbourne, so the form does read well and she has the race fitness.
Race Two: Catanach’s Jewellers Plate 1400m
Back Me: I’m pretty keen on Are There Any here. She couldn’t have been more enormous when resuming here a fortnight back over this distance, covering a stack of ground without cover. Despite that, she ambled up on the turn and looked the winner, but even though she was finding under pressure, given she was first up and covered extra ground, she just tired in the last couple of strides to run fourth, beaten a half length. Barrier one, in form apprentice with 3kg claim, good second up form…ticks every box.
Big Danger: Lorna May was backed off the map when making her return to racing at Rosehill four weeks back, and looked to travel very sweetly outside the speed, but the horse who had the run behind her, Rock Sturdy, peeled off her back and given he had the run under his belt, he proved a touch too good. That horse has since won again, so the form reads well and second up last time she ran second in the Canberra Guineas in a very strong form race, so big watch on her at Melbourne debut.
Roughie: Celeritas put behind her a frustrating run of outs with a strong and determined win at Sportingbet Park last week, coming from last, peeling wide and surging late thanks to a beaut steer by Dwayne Dunn. She has failed before when stepping up to Saturday grade, but she is on the minimum, rock hard fit and gets a firm track…why not have a throw at the stumps?
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Race Three: WeDrive Plate 1400m
Back Me: Hot, hot race. Signoff is the clear horse to beat for mine despite the fact he is first up. He strung together a brilliant sequence of wins, highlighted by his win at Bendigo on Golden Mile Day and a five length romp at the Valley. If he remains fit and healthy, he’ll win the Bendigo Cup, and he looked awfully good in a gallop at Warrnambool on Monday. He is ready to rock and roll for a big Spring.
Big Danger: Text ‘N’ Hurley is on the Caulfield Cup path and while she probably lacks the class to be a force in the great race, she certainly showed she has come back in ripping order with a slashing seventh in the Aurie’s Star to Tiger Tees. Very good record at the track, placed in both second up runs, drawn well and only carries 54kg. Great chance for mine at odds.
Roughie: Henwood is on the seven day back up after running a close up fifth to Trust In A Gust at the Valley last week, beaten under a length. That was his first run since the Winter Championship final, so I see a stack of upside with him, and he tumbles 6.5kg from that run last Saturday. He won’t be too far away from the good draw and Regan Bayliss is in ripping form.
Race Four: HockingStuart Handicap (78) 1200m
Back Me: Waddle your finger and good luck…dear me, what a nightmare to sort out. I’ll put Late Charge on top. It was this time last year he was that we saw him prove competitive in good races alongside some of the better horses going around, including Long John, Divine Calling and Shamus Award. He did the same in the Autumn, but he probably isn’t quite up to Group l level. In saying that, he did look sharp when winning a trial at Cranbourne recently and does tend to save his best when produced fresh, so from the good draw, he is worth the gamble I think.
Big Danger: Marwood kicked off his prep with a brilliant come from behind win at Seymour before racing flat second up as an odds favourite at Sportingbet Park. He then had a two week break and ran really well down the Flemington straight when second to the in form Play Master. Zero from two at Caulfield, but they were behind Eclair Big Bang and Long John, so I think you can forgive him for that. Terrible barrier here, but there is good speed which will suit his racing pattern.
Roughie: Aces And Angels looked a touch unlucky here two back behind the good mare Sino Eagle, running second, before going to Morphettville and being the subject of a good betting move, but she couldn’t deliver for punters, running second again to Our Miss Bossy. That horse will go around as favourite in Adelaide, so that will give you a guide on how strong the form is, but she has proven she can be competitive at this level, and Williams takes the ride.
Race Five: Theshark.com.au Stakes 1100m
Back Me: Couldn’t Agreemore landed some good bets when he resumed with a soft win down the Flemington straight three weeks back. He has been a very good horse for Phillip Stokes and is better than an Adelaide horse. His future is at stakes level in Melbourne and he gets a serious chance to breakthrough, although the wide barrier does make it tricky and he’ll have to sit further back than what Tourneur would like. Still, happy to have him on top.
Big Danger: Richie’s Vibe is the big watch for mine here. He is now back with Paul Beshara after a pretty hectic campaign last time in, which ended with a down the track effort in the Oakleigh Plate to Lankan Rupee. Went back home to Adelaide and has tuned up for his return to racing with a six length trial win at Gawler last week, and he looked very good there. He’ll get back from the wide gate, but he’ll charge late.
Roughie: Flamberge ended his Autumn campaign with a determined win in the Sebring Stakes, beating home a handy field, which included Hot Snitzel and Bennetta. Prior to that he did run fifth to Lankan Rupee in the Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket Handicap respectively, so we know he can be good at the highest level. I will say but his latest jumpout wasn’t all that great, but his class will carry him a long way here you would think.
Race Six: H.D.F McNeil Stakes 1200m
Back Me: Putting Chivalry on top. He showed in his two runs during the Autumn what a good horse he is and will be. He resumed with a fast finishing third to Rubick in the Blue Diamond Prelude before having absolutely no luck in the big one behind Earthquake, where he was forced to near last from the outside gate and gave the star filly too big of a start. Latest jumpout last week at Flemington was encouraging behind Sweet As Bro, and he gets in well at the weights compared to some of these, so I’m happy to be in his corner fresh despite the fact his main targets will be over more ground.
Big Danger: I think you have to forgive the failure of Nordic Empire in the Vain Stakes. I don’t think it was Froggy’s fault given he had barrier one and had to use it, but leading isn’t his go. He is much better with a sit, even though there doesn’t appear to be much early speed engaged here. Nick Hall is riding very well at the moment and this horse does have the race fitness on his side, and is on his home track.
Roughie: I thought Zululand did enough when resuming in the Vain, running on okay late for sixth to Get The Nod. No doubt 1200m is too short for him here, but he does have the run under the belt, along with the class and quality. Doubt he can win, but I’m looking to again hit the line strongly late.
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Race Seven: Sportingbet Sprint Series Heat 1 Stakes 1200m
Back Me: Tipping Gregers to do what she did here a fortnight back when resuming- spank them. She was backed off the map after a scintillating jumpout win at Flemington, and the fact she just looked so well placed in mares grade. She jumped to the front and never, ever looked in trouble. She takes on a better bunch of mares, but as we said first up, she is better than a mares stakes galloper, and given she has had the run under her belt, 1200m specialist…just looks the winner again.
Big Danger: Scandiva is a close relation to Black Caviar, so she’ll always have eyes on her. She resumed from a near 12 month break with an excellent sixth at Rosehill to Territory. She had the charmed run behind the leader, and when peeled to the outside, she looked as if she was going to sprint clear, but her fitness just gave out late. There is the suspicion that she’ll race flat second up after a long spell, but she is Group l placed behind Guelph and did win a Group ll when produced second up last time.
Roughie: The one to watch here for mine is Dear Demi. She is a high class mare who ran a bottler when resuming in the Autumn behind Catkins, but went backwards after that outing and didn’t fire a shot. Spelled and has looked really sharp in a couple of barrier trial performances. I know McDonald was glowing in praising her and the way she has come back this time in, so I’m intrigued to see how she returns.
Race Eight: New Zealand Bloodstock Memsie Stakes 1400m
Back Me: Very keen on Boban. It was this time last year where we saw how good he was with dazzling win after dazzling win. In the Autumn, even though he won the Chipping Norton, he didn’t really fire a shot. But it’s Spring time now, and he looks better than ever. Loved his last trial, and was even more impressed by the way he found the line in the Missile behind Sweet Idea. He was tardy away from the gates and probably got a pair further back than what Schofield would have liked. Had he been in that position, he probably wins the race. The last time he ran here was on Caulfield Cup Day and really, it was probably the most devastating win we saw on an Australian racetrack last season. If he is within striking range on the turn, his turn of foot will prove too superior for the opposition.
Big Danger: Messene was fantastic I thought in the Missile. That was his first go at WFA against the tough and classy proven performers at that level, and he went within a lip of victory when second to Sweet Idea. Near unbeaten when produced second up, drawn well, stable flying…only query is that it’s his first time at Caulfield, and we know that can bring about the downfall of many Sydney horses.
Roughie: Tipping a big run from Puissance De Lune. I think many people were quite harsh on him after his first up run in the P.B. Lawrence. He was first up since the Cox Plate and was forced to sit three wide with no cover. I thought his effort to finish as close as he did was quite good. Barrier one now, great record second up and won’t be too far away. Don’t be surprised to see him right in the finish.
Race Nine: Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock Stakes 1700m: Form Guide
Back Me: I thought there was plenty of merit in the first up run of Trade Commissioner at Rosehill when a three length seventh to Entirely Platinum. He didn’t really get clear room in the straight, but he kept finding the line which was the good thing to see. He ran third to Our Voodoo Prince and Akzar when second up last prep, so that form reads very well and has a stack of upside in terms of the better class stayers engaged here.
Big Danger: Stipulate had a big boom on him when he came to Australia for the Emirates Stakes last Spring, but given he was first up in a hot Group l race, it never really suited him. He came back in the Autumn and was very competitive behind some good horses, including Le Roi and Our Voodoo Prince. Jumpouts at Flemington have been sharp and he finds his right level to resume in, so I’m tipping a big run fresh.
Roughie: Road Trippin‘ was fancied to win the Mildura Cup last Sunday, but got too far back and was no match for the brilliant finishing burst of Flyingconi. Up to 1700m and to a bigger track helps, and is fitter, along with getting down to the minimum. Big class rise yes, but he is one to chuck in exotics to hopefully juice up the dividend.
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Best Bet: Race Seven Number 3 Gregers
Next Best: Race Three Number 10 Signoff
Best Roughie: Race Nine Number 9 Trade Commissioner
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 8, 9
Leg Two: 3
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 11
Leg Four: 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17
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In the news:
The only filly in Saturday’s Group Three McNeil Stakes has assumed favouritism after the scratching of Nostradamus from Caulfield.
Hawkes Racing has decided to keep quality colt Nostradamus in Sydney for Saturday’s Run To The Rose, leaving the Shea Eden-trained Novel Dancer at the head of the revised McNeil Stakes market.
Novel Dancer made her stakes racing debut at Caulfield two weeks ago and turned in a gallant performance for third in the Quezette Stakes after being posted wide throughout from barrier eight of 10.
“It was a big effort. We knew it was going to be a little bit tricky from wide but to finish off as well as she did after having not a lot of luck early was very promising,” Eden said.
Eden has no concerns about Novel Dancer racing the colts and geldings on Saturday at Caulfield and says the 1200m event fits in her program heading towards the Group One Thousand Guineas in October.
“She’s certainly not screwed down for Saturday but she will run well,” Eden said.
“She pulled up really well after the Quezette. Her work has been really good so with a drop in weight to the boys and a better barrier, she’ll run well.”
Novel Dancer was at $4.60 with TAB fixed odds on Friday ahead of Vain Stakes runner-up Stingray and the Chivalry at $6.50 and Awesome Rock at $7.50.