No.1
DUNADEN – $8 59kg (16)
Superb French horse who was an arrogant winner of the Caulfield Cup two weeks ago when he overcame a wide gate and big weight to fly home. Has 4.5kg’s more than what he carried to win this race last year but he’s no stranger to carrying and winning with big weights in class races overseas. Very hard to see him not running in the top 3.
No.2
AMERICAIN – $5.50 58kg (12)
Big run in the Caulfield Cup and meets Dunaden 5 kilograms better for being beaten 1.5 lengths in this race last year. Has been heavily backed this past week with Sportingbet Australia ($9 into $5.50) and the booking of Oliver will only improve his chances, as could any rain.
No.3
JAKKALBERRY – $51 55.5kg (19)
His run was ok in the Caulfield Cup when caught wide without cover and kept trying to the line. Lacks a turn of foot which is a huge concern as is the fact that it has never run over a distance this far. Chance to come top 10 as it sticks on but don’t think it can win.
No.4
RED CADEAUX – $11 55.5kg (18)
Last year’s runner up meets Dunaden better off at the weights and has been raced sparingly this year to enter this race on the fresh side, something he wasn’t able to do last year. Jockey Michael Rodd sticks and he’s been heavily supported in the last few days with Sportingbet. A definite winning chance.
No.5
WINCHESTER – $41 55.5kg (22)
Run-on horse who has never raced over further than a mile and a half. Given the way the cup is often run with backmarkers getting their chance you would have to concede him a top half finishing chance but very hard to see him running past the big guns.
No.6
VOILA ICI – $151 55kg (13)
Has run a couple of really good races this prep when led and only just been run down by horses like Ocean Park and Green Moon. Needs some give in the ground but never raced beyond 2800m and unlikely to get a soft lead. Hard to have.
No.7
CAVALRYMAN – $51 54kg (6)
Doesn’t appear to be one of Godolphin’s better horses. Previous races show he appears to be able to settle well and go to sleep which is a big plus but lacks a turn of foot when asked to go which is an obvious negative.
No.8
MOUNT ATHOS – $7.50 54kg (8)
Been the big spruik horse for this race since markets first came out. Relaxes beautifully in his races and has a big turn of foot, the ideal ingredients to win this race. Looks very well weighted and will be hard to beat.
No.9
SANAGAS – $51 54kg (4)
Has been set solely for this race and trainer Bart Cummings knows how to have them peaking at the right time. Beaten less than 4 lengths in the Caulfield Cup. At $51 with Sportingbet, a good roughie for your exotics.
No.10
ETHIOPIA – $19 53.5kg (14)
Very promising stayer who ran a huge race in the Cox Plate where he defied popular opinion by racing forward instead of swooping from the rear. Good value runner.
No.11
FIORENTE – $21 53.5kg (2)
Appears to be a very dour type and stable has a big opinion. Could surprise.
No.12
GALILEO’S CHOICE – $19 53.5kg (11)
Has jumped over hurdles like Vintage Crop and will certainly run the trip out. Must respect the trainer and therefore can’t rule him out.
No.13
GLENCADAM GOLD – $51 53.5kg (7)
Didn’t perform well in the Caulfield Cup when exposed to pressure a long way from home. This race will be no different and is therefore hard to have.
No.14
GREEN MOON – $16 53.5kg (5)
Only an average run in the Cox Plate when battled on for 7th. Has been set for this race and stable has done it before.
No.15
MALUCKYDAY – $13 53.5kg (9)
2010 runner up has returned to some really good form since being injured last year. One of the top local hopes and I can see it running in the top 5.
No.16
MOURAYAN – $21 53.5kg (3)
Extremely honest and consistent type who has placed in the top three 17 times in his 32 starts. Gets a nice weight drop from his recent runs and loves a fight.
No.17
MY QUEST FOR PEACE – $17 53.5kg (1)
Ran well in the Caulfield Cup finishing just 1.6 lengths off the winner. Wouldn’t shock if he goes close.
No.18
NIWOT – $51 53.5kg (15)
Copped a check at the top of the straight in the Caulfield Cup but was only ok to the line after that. Was well fancied in last year’s race and this year is no easier.
No.19
TAC DE BOISTRON – $34 53.5kg (21)
Well supported import prior to disappointing run in the Geelong Cup. There were excuses however and if there is any rain about come Tuesday then this horse is a real chance.
No.20
LIGHTS OF HEAVEN – $26 53kg (17)
Lightly raced promising mare who ran an impressive 3rd in the Caulfield Cup. Concern is she has never raced over the mile and a half but by Zabeel and has a great trainer.
No.21
PRECEDENCE – $81 53kg (20)
This is the 3rd Melbourne cup start for this war-horse, who has been beaten 7 and 9 lengths at his two previous attempts. Can’t see him improving on those performances but does have Bart Cummings in his corner.
No.22
UNUSUAL SUSPECT – $301 53kg (23)
Beaten less than 4 lengths in this race last year but doesn’t seem to be going well enough this time. Huge respect for the trainer but this would have to be a miracle.
No.23
ZABEELIONAIRE – $34 52kg (24)
Run was ok in the Caulfield Cup when beaten less than 3 lengths for 6th. Gives the impression that he is looking for this longer trip and with a light weight and good rider, could be the blowout at
$34 with Sportingbet.
No.24
KELINNI – $19 51kg (10)
The Lexus Stakes winner has won 8 of 18 and is always close, having never finished further back than 4th in all of his Australian starts. He is fit and in form and the Lexus Stakes has been a good recent guide. Great odds and my selection to win the 2012 Melbourne Cup!