With Royal Ascot considered one of the premier racing festivals globally, it’s no surprise that form from the English showpiece often translates well to the Melbourne Cup Carnival, especially when it comes to the Lexus Melbourne Cup.
In recent times, notable Royal Ascot performers like Willie Mullins’ pair Vauban and Absurde—now under the care of Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott—have been front and centre in Melbourne Cup betting discussions.
Mullins, who came heartbreakingly close to Cup glory in 2015 with Max Dynamite, may have yet another powerful duo to aim at the Flemington feature after Royal Ascot: Ethical Diamond and Sober, both former hurdlers.
Ethical Diamond made his case with a sharp win in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap (2414m) last Friday, while OTI Racing’s Sober produced a five-length demolition in the Queen Alexandra Stakes (4355m) on the final day of the carnival.
Ethical Diamond earned a peak Racing And Sports rating of 110 for the win—on par with top recent performers in the same race. Meanwhile, Sober, a six-year-old by Camelot, previously starred on the flat with Group 2 wins in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (3100m) and Prix Kergorlay (3000m), scoring a rating of 118—superior to Americain’s 116 and close to Protectionist’s 120.
Victoria Racing Club Executive General Manager Leigh Jordan confirmed ongoing discussions with Mullins, who remains keen to return to Melbourne with both gallopers.
“Ethical Diamond and Sober are both likely (chances),” Jordan said.
“Obviously with Willie, I’ve been sort of ‘what’s happening’ and he’s been giving me the thumbs up that that’s the way he wants to go.
“He’s still got a few things to do. Ethical Diamond’s not passed the ballot yet and probably wouldn’t have enough weight.
“Sober, he won at Kergorlay a couple of years ago, I don’t know whether he’s passed the ballot actually, the race he won won’t do that.
“He knows the drill about getting there. Willie’s got plenty of ammo, he’s got Absurde as well who in the same ownership as Ethical Diamond.”
Another exciting Cup prospect from Ascot is French Master, trained by John & Thady Gosden. The son of Frankel hit a career-best Racing And Sports rating of 113 in winning the Copper Horse Handicap (2816m)—the same race Vauban won before his Melbourne journey.
Gosden has had limited Melbourne Cup success, finishing ninth with Muntahaa in 2018 and 12th with Geelong Cup winner Gatewood in 2014.
“French Master, the Wathnan (owned) horse, our track manager Liam O’Keefe is over there, he’s done a bit with Qatar and touched base with them.
“He also needs to get past the ballot and look at his rating, there’s probably still a bit more work to be done with him.
“I always think Ascot’s a bit of a fork in the road, and then really from there, trainers will start thinking about their summer period, second half of the season.
“Ascot, very much, is like a premiership for most trainers. So it’s probably from now on where you’re going to get a bit more of a guide on who’s a chance.”
Sober is currently quoted at $15 for the Melbourne Cup, while Ethical Diamond is a $18 shot across leading betting markets.
Thinking of backing Sober or Ethical Diamond in the Melbourne Cup? Check out Australia’s top-rated betting sites for the best odds, bonuses, and offers on the most searched races and runners this spring.
