Black-type racing returns to The Valley this Saturday with the Listed McKenzie Stakes headlining the nine-race card.
The rail is out 5m, a soft track is expected, and our best bets for the entire day can be found below.
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Race 1 – Ladbrokes Plate (1200m)
Little Miss Kubi looks to be a filly of ability based on her comfortable three-length win on debut at Moe a fortnight ago.
The Headwater three-year-old settled midfield and won arrogantly along the inside, clocking the fastest final 200m of the entire meeting.
She’s drawn to get a similar run in transit with Damian Lane on board now, and there’s no reason she can’t go on with it.
Race 2 – Hugh Wallace-Smith Handicap (1500m)
Castillian was second to Berkeley Square at Flemington two weeks ago and that form rates well for this.
The Per Incanto three-year-old ranged up on the outside to finish runner-up in a photo, clocking the second-fastest final sectional of the race. He won his maiden the start prior in similar conditions at Warracknabeal and should be hard fit now with three runs under his belt.
Billy Egan retains the ride, and from an ideal barrier, he’ll be tough to beat.
Race 3 – James Reid Handicap (1500m)
Lackeen made his own luck on speed over the mile last-start where he was nothing but class leading all the way to score by over two lengths.
He seemed to have plenty left in the tank when crossing the line well clear of Chief Altony, so the step back to 1500m looks no issue at all.
He’s a proven wet-tracker with a win and four placings to his name on soft going, and I think there’s plenty more to come with Craig Williams retaining the ride. Not sure he’ll push for the front this time, but given his turn of foot, he’ll be hard to hold out.
Race 4 – Paul Coghlan Handicap (2500m)
Impulsar has also accepted at Randwick, but if he lines up here I think he’s a genuine chance.
The Frankel five-year-old is three-from-five to begin his career, adding to that record a few weeks ago at Pakenham where he went around as the short-priced favourite and scored quite comfortably in the end.
The fact he was caught three-wide and still won well suggests he’s capable of winning again, and I think he’ll get a much kinder run in transit this time with Mark Zahra operating from barrier 3.
Royal Crown is also worth a look each-way on the quick backup. The son of Helmet ran on well for third in a race that really didn’t suit at Sandown last week. The tempo here should be more to his liking.
Race 5 – Listed McMahon’s Dairy McKenzie Stakes (2500m)
El Padrino is a talented colt that resumes for Maher and Eustace after last being seen finishing down the straight in a Group 3 at Rosehill earlier in March.
The son of Street Boss had heavy tracks and awkward barriers to contend with right throughout the autumn, but I think his recent trial win at Cranbourne suggests he’s in for a good prep.
Jamie Kah, who has been in strong form recently, was responsible for his most recent ride where the pair weakened badly after racing on speed. I suspect she’ll opt for similar tactics here, but on a much firmer track, they’ll be tougher to run down.
Race 6 – Ranvet Handicap (1600m)
Mayfair Spirit looks ready to win now in his third run back.
The Maher and Eustace-trained six-year-old made amends for a luckless first-up run at Caulfield to finish third over the same track and distance three weeks ago where he made up good late ground behind Here To Shock.
He’s found the money in three of his four starts third-up and has spent most of his prep racing in similar conditions. Out to the mile looks no problem now, while Jamie Kah sticking in the saddle is an obvious plus.
Race 7 – Chandler Macleod Handicap (2040m)
Mankayan’s runs are spaced, but he has held his form nicely to return two wins and a placing this prep.
The European import was only narrowly denied his hat-trick by Hezashocka in a ding-dong battle to the line at Flemington last month, a run he can only improve on with a little more fitness under the belt now.
His wet-track form gets a big tick, and with four weeks between runs, he should be right there at the business end under Ben Melham.
Race 8 – Listed Long Fine Hospitality Supplies Carlyon Stakes (1000m)
Siding with the South Australian Extremely Lucky in what looks to be a very competitive race.
The Extreme Choice four-year-old steps out in search of his hat-trick after winning the Lightning Stakes at Morphettville last month where he produced a massive turn of foot from the tail of the field to win by a length.
The form from that has been franked with fourth place-getter I Am Bene winning at Caulfield last week, and with eyes towards Group 1 races later in the spring, I think this is the perfect race for Will Clarken’s four-year-old to prove how good he really is.
Race 9 – Dr Sheehan Plate (1200m)
Tough race to end the day, so I’m looking to have something each-way on He’s The Real Deel at a price.
The Matthew Brown-trained six-year-old typically runs a good race fresh, and I’m willing to ignore his recent Cranbourne trial given it came on a bottomless track.
He won over the mile here at The Valley during the spring by a clear margin and was good in his only run during the autumn when third at Sandown. Loves a soft track, and if the pattern of the day favours those on-pace, I think he’s in with a shot.
