Randwick will host its first race meeting since the Autumn Carnival this Saturday with a handy eight race card. The feature race might be the $100,000 Listed W J McKell Cup (2400m), but I’m sure most eyes will be on boom kiwi filly Katie’s Cove, who goes around in race three and should earn herself a ticket north for the Winter Carnival provided she wins, which is what should eventuate come Saturday.
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Race One (12:20) : TAB Early Quaddie Plate 1200m
Back Me: Gai Waterhouse holds the key with 40% of the acceptors here. Almalad is the pick of them based on their recent barrier trials, winning by over seven lengths and running the quickest time. Debut win was solid and and gets in very well after the claim for Winona Costin.
Big Danger: More Than Frank is on debut for Team Hawkes off the back of a decent barrier trial placing on his home track at Rosehill last week. He did show gate speed on that occasion and kept fighting on nicely under riding, so in a tricky race, he can run well without surprising.
Roughie: Chosen Prayer worked to the line really nicely at Warwick Farm behind Next Level. That race is the key form reference from raceday leading into this, and I’d say this filly has them covered here. Just a matter if she has improved enough to beat the two mentioned above.
Race Two (12:55) : Sportsyear Handicap (73) 2000m
Back Me: Putting Elusive Runner on top. Dominant maiden winner at Goulburn, then followed that up with a really strong second to Pinstripe Lane at Rosehill. That horse will go around at Doomben in the Grand Prix as a live chance, and he was one of only a few to make up ground on that particular meeting, so I think the Randwick 2000m with some give in the ground looks absolutely perfect.
Big Danger: Elroi is the unknown heading into this. Kiwi stayer trained by Paul Shailer, who doesn’t have the attention of some his counterparts like Roger James, Murray Baker etc etc, but I think he has a really nice horse on his hands. Finished a brave third at Hastings, then was freshened up and bolted in over 1400m at Ascot Park on a bottomless surface. What he beat there wasn’t much, but it was quite impressive and you always have to respect the kiwis when they come over.
Roughie: Keep an eye on this gelding down the bottom, Emerald City, for David Vandyke and Josh Adams. Should have bolted in on debut at Bathurst, then made amends with a gritty win over the Kembla mile. Bred to be a decent type over this sort of distance, and the proof was there at Kembla that he’ll appreciate the trip.
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Race Three (13:30) : Girvan Waugh Handicap (80) 1400m
Back Me: Good bunch of three year olds, but they aren’t as good as this filly from New Zealand, Katie’s Cove. I gave her a really good chance in the Hawkesbury Guineas after two spankings back home, and she was excellent behind Chautauqua, hitting the line very gamely. A repeat of that and she’ll beat these, and then go on to be competitive up North.
Big Danger: Very interested to see how Equator goes here. He was quite poor in three runs during the Autumn Carnival albeit in much tougher grade than this, alongside the likes of Guelph, Gypsy Diamond and Arabian Gold. Drops back to 1400m from 2000m which is a query, but on his best form, he’d give this a shake.
Roughie: Longma sat three wide with no cover at Warwick Farm and toughed it out very strongly under the urges of Cassidy to get the job done. He had been quite frustrating in a few runs prior, but now that he has got the win under the belt, his confidence will be up.
Race Four (14:05) : TAB Rewards Handicap (80) 1200m
Back Me: I think Chris Waller will win with the race with either You’ll Never and Specific Choice. Given he has the race fitness and less convictions, I’ll go for the former. Very good first up run here behind Two Blue in a close finish, then made up a stack of ground late at Rosehill when a close up fourth to Forster. Back to Randwick, where he probably races best, Shinn on board, looks hard to beat.
Big Danger: Specific Choice was the CEO of the Milk Drinkers Association last time in. He was a complete tease, bolting in the run, then when asked for the final effort, he turned it up. Trialled very well last week, and if he runs truly, he’ll probably win, but it’s very, very, very hard to back him with confidence.
Roughie: I thought Inside Job was quite good in the sprint race at Hawkesbury on their stand alone meeting, sticking to the task quite gamely in a strong race. Considering his record, I think he gets in well at the weights, near unbeatable second up and drawn well.
Race Five (14:40) : At Sea Handicap 1100m
Back Me: Interesting race. I’ll stick with Avoid Lightning. She hasn’t raced since really catching the eye in the Sapphire when a closing second to Cosmic Endeavour, a race which was dominated on the speed by that filly. Avoid Lightning has since been kept up to the mark with a slick trial win and while she is creeping up in the weights, she is the in form horse heading into this race.
Big Danger: Arinosa is the intriguing one. Could have easily been sent North to contest the lead up mares races, but Waller has elected to stay in Sydney, I’d say to try and build her confidence back up, because quite simply, she was horrible in the Autumn. Her two trials have signaled she has turned the corner to be competitive in whatever she contests, and she is unbeaten at Randwick.
Roughie: See The World is the clear class runner who stormed home for fifth in the TJ Smith to Lankan Rupee, then wasn’t suited by the slow tempo in the Hall Mark behind Hot Snitzel. Speed should be good here, and the small field means he won’t be as far back as normal. On his best form, he’d give this an almighty shake.
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Race Six (15:15) : W J McKell Cup 2400m
Back Me: Two horse for mine between Destiny’s Kiss and La Amistad. I’m going with the latter, purely because she has been so dominant at her past two outings, in particular at Warwick Farm where she was crunched in betting and showed a very sharp turn of foot on the home turn to bolt in. She won’t reach the heights of her sibling, Makybe Diva, but she has her fair share of talent, and enough of it, to take care of this field with the right run.
Big Danger: Putting Destiny’s Kiss in for second and not first because Joe Pride had stated that he was only going to keep Destiny’s Kiss to below a mile this prep, but the horse really grinded home in the Scone Cup to suggest he is looking for further, and he immediately gets it. If the rain comes, he will be elevated to top tip. If not, he’ll rate as a serious threat.
Roughie: Alzora could be a sneaky chance with the right run here. Made up a stack of ground in the JRA Plate behind Spillway, then was bogged down by the 59kg at Morphettville on a shifty track. Her record isn’t flash, but she has always contested good races during her career, so on the minimum and at her home track, she could run a decent race at odds.
Race Seven (15:50) : James Boag’s Premium Handicap (80) 1400m
Big Danger: There has been no stopping Amazon at the moment, winning her past three quite impressively and in rather dominant fashion. I think the drop back in distance will suit and Tim Clark gets back aboard.
Big Danger: Mamwaazel tried her guts out at Warwick Farm and was only caught in the last stride by her stablemate Sense And Reason. She was second up there, so I expect some improvement from her, and I think getting back to a bigger track will be a big tick.
Roughie: Expect an improving run from Bugaboo. She has been racing against some good horses in tough company in recent times, including Leebaz and Aerobatics in the Darley Crown. She’ll get a soft run on the fence and gets back to her home track.
Race Eight (16:30) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (90) 1400m
Back Me: $8.50 for Excess Knowledge is ridiculous overs for a horse who is being touted as the next Fiorente. He comes over from the UK with a very similar profile to Fiorente and has an uncanny resemblance to the Melbourne Cup hero of 2013. The trial win was outstanding and Nash was glowing in his report of the horse after the trial. 1400m is well short of his ideal distance, but he is a future Group l horse and has the class to beat these.
Big Danger: Taxmeifyoucan did a bit of work first up in the Wagga Wagga Town Plate, sitting wide midfield, but ran on okay late behind Unanimously. Is a winner second up and draws much better here, plus gets the claim for Thornton. Expect him to improve.
Roughie: Earnest Ernest has really found a good patch of form in recent times, winning at Rosehill, then trialling really well before running at the track again and finding the line really strongly in an on pace dominated race when fourth to Tromso. He’ll get back again here, but looks ready for 1400m now and is only 0.5kg over the minimum.
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Best Bet: Race Three Number 5 Katie’s Cove
Next Best: Race Eight Number 6 Excess Knowledge
Best Roughie: Race Seven Number 10 Amazon
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3
Leg Two: 2, 13
Leg Three: 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11, 13
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
News:
The latest import to find his way into Tulloch Lodge could challenge Makybe Diva’s sister as the most promising stayer to emerge from the WJ McKell Cup meeting at Randwick.
Excess Knowledge will make his Australian debut with a Timeform rating on a par with trainer Gai Waterhouse’s Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente at the same stage of their careers.
But that’s not where the similarity ends as Excess Knowledge, a Blake Shinn mount, sports the silks of syndicator Round Table Racing for the first time in the Hyland Race Colours Handicap.
As a son of Monsun, Excess Knowledge is by the same sire as Fiorente and he will tip the scales close to 500kg on Saturday.
“When Fiorente ran in his first Melbourne Cup at his first start out here he was 500 kilos and Excess Knowledge will be 495 kilos,” Round Table Racing’s Bruce Slade said.
“By the time Fiorente won the Melbourne Cup the next year he was 520 kilos.”
La Amistad, a three-quarter sister to Makybe Diva, will be out to continue her rise through the ranks in the Listed McKell Cup (2400m) as Excess Knowledge will be trying make an impression over what appears to be an unsuitable 1400m.
The team behind the deal to buy Fiorente has also been instrumental in securing Excess Knowledge who is a $15 to $9 firmer to make a winning Australian debut.
A winner over 1600m on debut as a two-year-old, Excess Knowledge first came to the attention of Waterhouse when he was beaten a head in the Group Three Gordon Stakes over 2400m at Goodwood in July.
“Fiorente ran second in the same race as a three-year-old,” Slade said.
Slade said close to half of the owners involved in Fiorente had taken shares in Excess Knowledge, a horse he envisages will be at his peak for the 2015 spring carnival.
“He is a very progressive horse who has acclimatised like no other horse for Gai,” Slade said.
“Gai thought that while he has adapted to well to her systems she may as well get him used to the Australian style of racing.
“But in reality we are aiming him up for the 2015 Cups.”