The Autumn carnival is not too far away and this Saturday at Caulfield, things get much more serious with the first Group 1 of 2014, the $400,000 Sportingbet C.F. Orr Stakes (1400m), featuring Cox Plate hero Shamus Award. The Blue Diamond picture will look much clearer after the two preludes, with all eyes on Rubick and Earthquake, two of the better youngsters Sydney has seen this season.
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Race One (11:00) : BMW Melbourne Handicap (84) 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Is this really a Saturday race? Dear me…Beliveau (Best Odds: $6.00) for me. He produced an excellent second at Morphettville last week to Signoff, a Darren Weir runner who is destined to win blacktype, so the form reads very well, plus he is back on his home track and on the minimum.
Big Danger: No reason why Use The Lot (Best Odds: $3.90) can’t win again. He was very good in winning over the 1800m here fresh after a little break. He will only improve off that run and faces a much weaker field here.
Roughie: Settlers Way (Best Odds: $9.50) was a gallant winner at the Valley back in late December, then had a month and ran over the mile there, when sitting back and running on nicely late. Only carries 52.5kg after the claim and is back up to his pet distance. Hard to beat.
$250 Beliveau Free Bet
Race Two (11:30) : Herald Sun Carlyon Cup 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Only six horses, but every runner has a winning claim. Going for Star Rolling (Best Odds: $3.70). Forget he went around in the John Dillon here a couple of weeks back, where he sat back in a race dominated by those closer to the tempo. Up to the mile and the small, as well as the booking of Olly, will make sure he is hard to beat.
Big Danger: Former classy animal Chase The Rainbow (Best Odds: $3.60) is slowly getting back to his best form. Looked terrible first up, then made amends with a slashing fourth in the Chester Manifold which was followed up by a narrow third in a three way photo finish. He is also up to his best distance and does have the fitness edge.
Roughie: He won’t be a roughie, but Pakal (Best Odds: $2.60) is the class horse. He was a brilliant winner of the Cranbourne Cup, then was a touch unlucky in the Mackinnon behind Side Glance. Trialled very strongly last week and looks fit enough to win first up. The bolter will be Anagold, but she trialled very nicely herself and a win from her wouldn’t shock.
$250 Star Rolling Free Bet
Race Three (12:00) : Autumn Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Really good race here. The best horse in the race is Polanski (Best Odds: $3.20), so he will go on top. Took all before him during the latter part of the Spring, culminating with one of the more dominant Derby wins we have seen for a little while. Looked reasonably forward in condition when placing in a trial last week, so fitness won’t be an issue. Looks the one.
Big Danger: I have a big wrap on Rock Hero (Best Odds: $6.50). I think he is going to be a real star of racing in this part of the world, whether it be now or in the Spring. Crept up on him a touch too quickly in the Spring, with a brilliant win in the Dulcify followed up by an eighth in the Spring Champion, where he raced liked a tired horse. Has trialled twice and looked good in each. If they keep him to 1600m, he’ll be winning a Group 1.
Roughie: Pyrrolic (Best Odds: $9.00) looks the better of the two Mick Kent runners here. Smart debut win at Sportingbet Park in May, and hasn’t been seen since trialling back in August. He is the intriguing horse, because he blitzed them in that race. Exotic player for sure.
$250 Polanski Free Bet
Race Four (12:30) : Kevin Hayes Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: I think one of the top two will salute here. Going with Bound For Earth (Best Odds: $3.50). She is the class runner given last time she resumed, she beat Guelph, the best three year old filly in Australia. She then bumped into that filly at her next three runs without being disgraced. Resumes here off the back of a pleasing trial placing, and class should just about carry her home here.
Big Danger: The Huntress (Best Odds: $10.00) had two runs during the Spring. First up she ran second to Gregers at the Valley, then was an unlucky fifth to Missy Longstocking on Caulfield Cup Day, then was found to have bled. Very good filly when right, and if Mick Kent has her indeed that way, she will give this a shake.
Roughie: Plenty to like about the two career starts and wins from Shamalia (Best Odds: $4.60) in Sydney for Team Cummings. Took care of them comfortably on debut, then showed a lovely turn of foot with a big weight to win next time out. Drawn terribly here for her Melbourne debut, but she looks high quality and Olly has been booked.
$250 Bound For Earth Free Bet
Race Five (13:05) : Blue Diamond Prelude (Fillies) 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Earthquake (Best Odds: $1.75). Need we say any more? She is a star, toyed with them in her lone run, trialled well last week, gun rider in the saddle…should take care of them.
Big Danger: Eloping (Best Odds: $7.50) is your typical juvenile- ready made, jumps on the bunny and runs. Did that on debut impressively, then had to be hustled forward after missing the kick a touch, but led and proved too good in the Preview. Won’t beat Earthquake, but still should fill a drum.
Roughie: Lumosty (Best Odds: $15.00) has 1400m Flemington written all over her aka Sires Produce. Looked very green on debut in the Preview, and didn’t really know how to let down when she peeled off the back of Eloping. I like her, and I think she can measure up to good races for sure. Throw her in exotics.
$250 Earthquake Free Bet
Race Six (13:35) : Blue Diamond Prelude (C & G) 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Rubick (Best Odds: $1.85). Pretty straight forward here. Blitzed them in a barrier trial, then did the same on debut at Randwick. If he has handled the travel from Sydney to Melbourne, has four legs come race day, he’ll beat these comfortably.
Big Danger: Plenty to like about the first up win of Mohave (Best Odds: $13.00) in the Preview, where he was a touch tardy to begin with, but quickly balanced up and just sat off the pace. Once they straightened, he got into the clear, took a couple of strides to wind up, but his last 100m was very good. Not in the same class as the top tip, but is a nice horse and should get in the money.
Roughie: Silent Whisper (Best Odds: $21.00) was a good thing beaten on debut in the Inglis race on Cox Plate Day where he loomed to win on the turn, then got checked and was almost sideways in his action. He then went to Flemington and was no match for Boomwaa. Freshened and ran at Morphettville, where he was wide and back, and never really was a winning hope, but his last 200m was good. Barrier one here, fitter…great place bet for me at around the $5 mark.
$250 Rubick Free Bet
Race Seven (14:10) : Rubiton Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: $4 for Lankan Rupee (Best Odds: $3.50) was an absolute gift for punters, because he looks one of the good things on the program. Came of age during the Spring after being gelded, winning three of his four starts, including two in stakes grade. Loved his trial last week at Cranbourne, looks the only leader, home track, drawn well, should win.
Big Danger: The stablemate Lion Of Belfort (Best Odds: $3.10) also came of age during the Spring. At first, he was just known as the horse to kick off Ollys comeback, but in a short space of time, he went on to place behind Zoustar and Notlistenin’tome in the Coolmore. Classy animal who also trialled well at Cranbourne.
Roughie: Don’t discount the Queenslander Better Than Ready (Best Odds: $4.50). I think Victorian punters will think he is a bit of a milk drinker after the way he performed in the Newmarket last year, but he is a much more mature, seasoned and tougher galloper now, as we saw during the Summer with a couple of devastating wins. Badly in at the weights, but is too good to ignore.
$250 Lankan Roupee Free Bet
Race Eight (14:45) : C.F. Orr Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: If ever Moment Of Change (Best Odds: $2.60) is going to win another big race, this is it. Sat wide with no cover in the Australia Stakes yet looked to travel sweetly and was home on the corner, but was bloused on the line by Richie’s Vibe. Back to 1400m, which he hasn’t raced at since winning his last race, the Sir Rupert Clarke, over this track/distance during the Spring of 2012. Has the fitness edge, has the tactical speed…should be too good.
Big Danger: The Cox Plate champ Shamus Award (Best Odds: $3.30) resumes here after that famous win at the Valley. Ran some awesome races prior to that also, placing in the Bill Stutt and Caulfield Guineas. Has looked solid enough in recent jumpouts to suggest he’ll be hard to beat. My only concern is that yes, he is the reigning Cox Plate winner, but you have to remember that is the only race he has won, and the race was handed to him on a platter. Very good horse yes, but only has won the one race.
Roughie: I’ll give a sneaky exotic chance to Playing God (Best Odds: $51.00), who has performed very well in Melbourne before as a three year old. He has residual fitness, drawn well, and seems good overs.
$250 Moment Of Change Free Bet
Race Nine (15:20) : Bellmaine Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: A Time For Julia (Best Odds: $9.50) on top for me. Raced four times during the Spring. First two runs were excellent, placing behind Octavia and Commanding Jewel respectively, then worked home strongly behind Catkins at this track/distance before racing like a tired horse in the Blazer behind Fire Up Fifi. Looked sharp leading all the way in a recent hitout at Sportingbet Park, and on her home track first up, and at a good price, I’ll be happy to be in her corner.
Big Danger: Arinosa (Best Odds: $3.60) is the interesting runner. If she is at her best, she’ll blitz these and blitz them comfortably. There were just a few question marks about her during the Spring after her flop in the Manikato. She ran on Cup Day and looked to have every chance after getting a beautiful drag into the race. Trialled twice for this, and has looked okay without being spectacular, but if she brings her game face, she is one of the better mares in Australia.
Roughie: Hi Belle (Best Odds: $8.00) couldn’t take a trick during the Spring. She had no luck at all in each of her runs, culminating with a narrow defeat in the Summoned at the hands of Floria. Very good first up horse, and should get plenty of cover from the barrier. Great knockout chance.
$250 A Time For Julia Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Seven Number 3 Lankan Rupee (Best Odds: $3.50)
Next Best: Race Five Number 3 Earthquake (Best Odds: $3.50)
Best Roughie: Race Nine Number 7 A Time For Julia (Best Odds: $9.50)
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 4
Leg Two: 1, 3, 6
Leg Three: 3, 7, 8
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 12
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
