The Group 1 Japan Cup is run this Sunday at the Tokyo Racecourse.
This event is run under weight-for-age conditions over 2400m and is an invitational race where Japan’s best middle distance horses race against invited horses from overseas.
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Starting in 1981, the initial two races were won by American horses, before European visitor Stanerra won the third edition before the first local victory in 1984.
New Zealand mare Horlicks was successful in 1989 followed by an Australian victory in 1990 with the Hayes-trained Better Loosen Up.
In recent times, the locals have proved very difficult to beat in this event with no internationals placing since Ouija Board in 2006 while the last overseas winner was Alkaasseed in 2005.
This year, three invited Europeans will take their place in the field with Erupt returning to the event having run a credible sixth behind Shonan Pandora last year.
This Dubawi Colt comes into the event in good form coming off a win in the Group 1 Canadian International.
He should run well again, though this is a much harder affair than the Canadian race and it would surprise if he can beat the locals.
Germany provide the other two invitees with Nightflower returning having run 11th last year.
Her last three runs have been in German Group 1’s where she twice finished runners-up before running home well to win the Preis Von Europa.
She strikes the race in better form than last year, and while only 11th, she wasn’t that far from the winner, so expecting she’ll run a bold race.
Iquitos is the other German runner in the race, a colt who won his maiden Group 1 in the Grosser Preis Von Baden over this trip in September.
He likes to get back and run home, so the Japanese style of racing should suit, however he has been comfortably beaten in his last two runs, so happy to risk him travelling to Japan and making an impression in this race.
With the recent record of international horses, expecting the visitors to go around at long odds here, and with possibility of an affected track with snow in Tokyo through the week, think Nightflower could possibly run a good race at a big price. Keep an eye on track conditions.
The locals expecting to fight out favouritism are Kitasan Black, Gold Actor and Real Steel, while three-year-olds Dee Majesty and Rainbow Line are also given chances.
Kitasan Black is a four-year-old who hasn’t missed a place for over a year, including wins in the Tenno Sho Spring and Japanese St Ledger.
Likes to lead or race handy to pace and comes off a Group 2 win over this journey last start.
Expect he’ll be in front coming down the straight and with a 3200m victory in the Tenno Sho, he’ll will prove difficult to run past.
Gold Actor returned from a break with an impressive victory in the Group 2 all comers over 2200m and should strip fitter for his second run here.
Has a good record at the track including a victory over this trip. Won four of last five races including a Group 1 Arima Kinen. Has obvious class and looks set to perform to his best here.
Real Steel is a four-year-old colt by super sire Deep Impact, who himself won a Japan Cup and produced the first two home in 2015, and also 2012 and 2013 winner Gentildonna.
Real Steel is a Group 1 winner having won the Dubai Turf over 1800m after competing in top company as a three-year-old in what appeared a really strong year.
Disappointed on return to Japan in the Yasuda Kinen over the mile, but returned to form last start finishing second behind highly talented Maurice over 2000m in the Tenno Sho Autumn.
He raced wide for the majority of the race, yet still found plenty at the end of the race to run home strongly in a race with fast final sectionals.
Significantly, he gets one of the world’s best jockeys in Ryan Moore to reunite with the colt having ridden him to victory in Dubai.
While potentially his best trip is at a little short of the distance here, 2400m is in his range and this doesn’t appear likely to be run at a really fast tempo.
Looks a great chance to me and I think he can finish over the top of this field.
The three-year-old colts also add interest with Group 1 winner Dee Majesty and Rainbow Line running well in their lead-up run in the Japanese St Ledger behind Satono Diamond.
Fame Game was a Melbourne Cup favourite just over 12 months ago. He’s a gelding now and caught the eye finishing hard at his latest start.
Has three wins at the track from only six starts and he could surprise at odds.
Looks another great edition of the race. Happy to be with Real Steel to win
My tips:
1. Real Steel
2. Gold Actor
3. Rainbow Line
Best Roughie – Nightflower
