The Group 2 Villiers Stakes is the feature race of the Warwick Farm meeting with a competitive field of nineteen, including one emergency, to face the starter. Thirteen runners competed in the Listed Festival Stakes at Rosehill a fortnight ago and with the winner of that race, Malavio, succumbing to injury since and not able to take part here, the market is wide open with Galah the favourite at $5.50
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1. MONTON – S Clipperton (4)
He won this race last year after claiming the Festival Stakes and has followed a similar path this year as he looks to make it back-to-back victories. Thought his last start, his first in eight weeks, in the Festival Stakes was a great effort. With 59kgs he led and made Malavio – who had a 4kgs advantage at the weights, earn the victory. He can only be fitter for that run and has drawn ideally in four.
Odds: $7.50
2. TRIPLE ELEGANCE – J McDonald (18)
Returned to racing with a great effort in the Listed Skin Fitness Stakes out at Hawkesbury, running second to All Legal before an eighth (beaten 4.2) behind Classics at Rosehill. Draw wide and got a long way back last start in the Festival Stakes, a race dominated by those up front. He is faced with another horror draw again this week and will be giving most of these a big start as they turn for home.
Odds: $34.00
3. KINNERSLEY – T Berry (13)
He is coming off a good win in the Goulburn Cup – which is proving to be a very good form race – under 59kgs, where he camped on the speed and showed good determination late. He drops down to 56.5 today and despite an awkward draw, would have to be considered amongst the leading hopes.
Odds: $16.00
4. CABERNET – J Bowman (10)
A convincing winner of the Listed Summoned Stakes (1500m) two starts back in Melbourne before settling in the box seat and finishing fifth (beaten 1.2 lengths) behind Malavio in the Festival Stakes at her last start. Just got baulked for a run at a crucial stage last start and finished right on the heels of a few very much in form. She can’t be ignored.
Odds: $7.00
5. DARCI BE GOOD – N Berry (17)
A tough effort two starts back to win the G3 Hawkesbury Gold Cup (Malavio finishing fourth) before despite drawing gate fourteen of sixteen in the Festival Stakes, finding a good spot fourth in the run but wasn’t able to go on with it late and weakened to finish tenth (beaten 2.5). Not a good draw either here and if he, as expected, goes forward in the run he’ll have to produce a career best effort.
Odds: $41.00
6. SHOUT OUT LOUD – J Parr (1)
Melbourne visitor that brings together the inform partnership of Josh Parr and Peter Moody. Tough win last start, second up, when recording a three quarter length win over Danzylum at Caulfield in Open company under 57.5kgs. Ran second to Southern Speed in a Listed race back in January of this year and, given that his pattern is to race forward, has drawn perfectly in 1.
Odds: $21.00
7. THUMBTACKS – J Collett (2)
Resumed with a pleasing effort behind Classics at Roshill two starts back before getting too far back in the Festival Stakes and finishing twelfth of sixteen (beaten 3.1). From a better draw today, expect him to be ridden closer and with two runs now under his belt, coupled with his exceptional record at this Track/Dist – four wins and three placings from ten starts, don’t be surprised if he were to run a big run.
Odds: $16.00
8. ALL LEGAL – G Schofield (9)
He won the Listed Skin Fitness Stakes at Hawkesbury three starts back, second up from a spell before finishing sixth (beaten 2.4 lengths) behind Classics and at his most recent start, a close up seventh behind Malavio in the Festival Stakes. Had his chance last start and I just wonder, in this class, if the mile trip isn’t a fraction beyond his best but certainly going well enough to be considered.
Odds: $16.00
9. GALAH – K McEvoy (8)
He has burnt punters at his last two starts when starting as 9/4 and being narrowly beaten by Good Value at Flemington before, at his last start, starting 4/1 favourite in the Festival Stakes and finishing third (beaten ¾). Did have to make up a bit of ground on the leaders (who ran the quinella) in the Festival Stakes and would be prepared to, with a solid speed anticipated here, give him one more crack at it.
Odds: $5.00
10. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED – L Nolen (11)
The second of Moody’s runners who lines up for this race, third up into his preparation. Resumed off a long break with a fair effort in the Listed Kevin Heffernan behind Mid Summer Music before, under the steadier of 60kgs, finishing ninth (beaten 4.4 lengths) to stable-mate Shout Out Loud at Caulfield. Drops to the luxury weight of 53.5kgs and meets Shout Out Loud some 3.5kgs to the good. Won the Alister Clark – defeating Ethiopia – earlier this year as a 3yo and will be one to keep safe.
Odds: $26.00
11. QUIDNUNC – K O’Hara (19)
Good win when claiming the Listed Nevison first up this preparation and in three subsequent runs, hasn’t been far off the money in any of them including her last start fourth (beaten 1.1) in the Festival Stakes. Going well but from barrier 19, will have her work cut out for her here.
Odds: $21.00
12. CLASSIC – C Reith (6)
Tough win three starts back under 59kgs in a BM 78 and backed that up with another tough effort, this time in Open company, when claiming a narrow victory over Tromso. Off the back of that form, started as a live chance in the Festival Stakes (7/1) and settled in the right spot from her good draw but failed to produce in the straight and weakened to finish eleventh (beaten 2.9). Drawn well again but off the back of her last start, where she had no apparent excuses, find it hard to include her.
Odds: $16.00
13. ISOPACH – C Brown (12)
A good effort when second to Darci Be Good in the G3 Hawkesbury Gold Cup was backed up with a strong front-running effort when finishing fourth (beaten ¾ ) to Kinnersly in the Goulburn Cup. Lined up in the Festival Stakes as an 11/1 chance but had little luck in running form gate eleven and finished thirteenth (beaten 3.7).
Odds: $16.00
14. SHADOWS IN THE SUN – A Allen (7)
He was very well supported when first up at Rosehill on the 17th November and almost pulled the plunge off when flashing home to be beaten a nose by Ollie Vollie. He’s only start since, he got back from his inside draw and never threatened in the Festival Stakes, finishing third last (beaten 5.1). Only the three wins from twenty-five starts and it would take a significant turn-a-round on his last start.
Odds: $19.00
15. ALMA’S FURY – B Shinn (16)
Always thereabouts in these races but has only managed four thirds form his last ten starts. That being said, he did produce a very tidy effort last start in the Festival Stakes where, from the widest gate and came from last on the turn, in a race dominated by the leaders, to finish as well as anything for sixth placing (beaten 1.8). Unfortunately, the draw hasn’t been kind to him again this week but inclined to include him as a blowout chance.
Odds: $16.00
16. RACING HEART – (14)
A former QLD’er now with Jo Pride’s yard who, after settling mid-field, finished last in the Festival Stakes at his last start – his first for ten weeks. He can only be better for that outing but will still find this race well out of his reach.
Odds: $126.00
17. MERLIN MUSTANG – B Avdulla (5)
Thought his efforts two and three runs back, behind Under The Sun and Moriarty respectively, were very good and that form had him installed as a 5/1 chance in the Hawkesbury Gold Cup, where he led and weakened late to finish ninth behind Darci Be Good. Whilst he hasn’t raced since then (early November), he’s had two barrier trials to keep him up to the mark, winning the both. Will no doubt be up on the pace from five.
Odds: $16.00
18. HOLY MOLY – J Cassidy (3)
She got a good time of it out in front last start and recorded a length win in a Fillies and Mares BM 80 race at Rosehill a fortnight ago. Drawn to be handy again but will be kept honest in front this time and likely to find the step up in grade a bit too rich.
Odds: $13.00
19. AL’S GOLD – B Spriggs (15)
He has four runs back from a brief let-up but has yet to record a placing. His last start was last week behind Samui Lad when beaten 2.6 lengths. That was an improved effort on the start before but still not good enough to consider him among the leading chances in this race.
Odds: $126.00
SUMMARY
This is a good competitive race. Hard to go past Monton given his last start performance and, when comparing his form from this year to last’s when he claimed this race, he appears to be going just as well. Good value at around the $8.00 mark. If he stays the eachway price of $5.50, could give Galah one more roll of the dice. Two at value could be Alma’s Fury ($16.00) and Thumbtacks ($14.00) for those looking for value/playing multiples.
