Not disgraced first up in the Oakleigh Plate, Glenall subsequently ran a strong 2nd to Whispering Brook at Moonee Valley before a forgive run last start when he sat 3rd fence off a hot pace but was knocked out of the race just as he was gathering momentum.
He has a win over the favourite Tango Rain in the Spring, although it must be noted that Tango Rain has been gelded since and turned in a nice recent trial.
The gelding aside I can’t see any value in Tango Rain at the price and more to the point, the market loves backing a horse with his profile, so I think he’s likely to firm still from his opening 4.00 quote.
Passage Of Time is another with a strong chance but I suspect he’ll peak later in his preparation at Scone or over the carnival in Brisbane.
The engagement of black type winners The Monstar and Kuro has compressed the weights with just four runners over the limit of 53kg.
The market, nor I can make strong cases for the top three in saddle cloth order and as such there’s a distinct advantage to Glenall at the weights.
At 0.5 kg over the limit, he fits correctly to those above him and has a weight advantage over all those below him bar Isorich.
Regardless of the importance you place on the specific weight carried in this case, it suggests that Glenall is the best placed in terms of the relative ranking of horses on their OHC rating.
The biggest obstacle to Glenall might be the wide barrier with a clear advantage to barriers 3-7 at this distance, but it’s an obstacle I’m willing to gamble on.
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Tips:
- Glenall
- Tango Rain
- Kuro
- The Monstar