With heavy rains forecast around Sydney this week, Saturday’s Golden Slipper looks like being run on a rain-affected track giving us a ‘soggy’ Slipper.
With the dry weather in Sydney and Melbourne over the last six months, most of these two-year-olds are unraced on heavy or genuine soft tracks.
Here’s a quick rundown of each runner’s credentials and a quick look at their Sire’s winning strike rate percentages on dry and wet tracks to get some insight.
Market ?: View the 2018 Golden Slipper odds
1. Written By – Has had a heavy track experience having won only heavy start on debut.
Sire – Written Tycoon – 14.1 percent dry v 12.6 percent wet – progeny generally handle but don’t love wet tracks, though this horse has handled at only attempt.
2. Santos – Won Soft 5 trial and impressive in most recent trial on heavy – untried under race conditions though.
Sire – I am Invincible – better stats dry tracks dry 18.9 percent v 14.3 percent (breed generally prefer dry tracks).
3. Aylmerton – Won only start on soft ground.
Sire Siyouni (France) – 1/1 wet track starts Australia but has only average wet stats in Europe – Aylmerton is the only wet track runner in Australia.
4. Long Leaf – Narrow victory on Soft 5 at only attempt in a race.
Sire – Fastnet Rock has 13.9 percent strike rate on dry versus 12.9 percent on wet tracks.
5. Performer – Won narrowly on Soft 5 – impressive trial on heavy track.
Sire – Exceed and Excel – 13 percent dry v 11.8 percent wet – Sire handle wet but don’t thrive (breed OK – but like the way he trialed recently on heavy).
6. Ef Troop – Untried in race but won soft track trials by big margin.
Sire – Spirit of Boom – 1st season sire – so very small sample size – dry 25.5 percent v wet 13.3 percent (query on heavy)
7. Praire Fire – unseen on wet tracks.
Sire – Snitzel – This breed generally like wet tracks – dry 14.9 percent v wet 17 percent – (wet conditions could possibly favour).
8. Sandbar – Won race on a soft track race.
Sire – Snitzel – Breed like wet tracks – dry 14.9 percent v wet 17 percent – (wet conditions likely to favour).
9. Enbihaar – Unraced on wet track – runner-up in heavy trial.
Sire – Magnus – dry 13.2 percent v wet 13.7 percent (thought trial on heavy was only fair).
10. Sunlight – Has won a heavy track trial but untried on any soft going in race conditions.
Sire – Zoustar – First season sire only had 4 wet track starters for 1 win so inconclusive. (Seems a risk as a slipper favourite and with racing style unseen on a wet track).
11. Estijaab – seen soft 5 in trial (2nd) – no real guide.
Sire – Snitzel – wet track sire – dry 14.9 percent v wet 17 percent – (good chance will appreciate).
12. Oohood – Runner-up soft track on debut.
Sire – I Am Invicible – Better stats dry tracks dry 18.9 percent v 14.3 percent (breed prefer dry tracks in general).
13. Fiesta – 3 runs have come on soft tracks for a win and two 2nds.
Sire – I Am Invicible – Better stats dry tracks, dry 18.9 percent v 14.3 percent (breed prefer dry tracks in general but she has shown good soft track form).
14. Sizzling Belle – Unraced on wet track.
Sire – Sizzling – First season sire, so yet to race significant numbers but early signs don’t indicate a love of wet tracks – dry 14.3 percent v wet 7.7 percent.
15. Seabrook – Won on a soft (5) at only attempt.
Sire – Hinchinbrook – has better dry track stats – dry 14.8 percent v wet 11.7 percent.
16. Secret Lady – Unplaced on only run on wet track.
Sire – Choisir – Dry 11.7 percent v wet 11.4 percent.
Most Likely Advantaged by rain
The Snitzel Breeds – especially Sandbar who has won on a soft Warwick farm track but also Estijaab and even Praire Fire at big odds who are yet to race on a wet track.
Neutral
Written By – not especially by a wet track sire but countered by the impressive heavy track win on debut.
Performer – not especially by breeding but the blinkers went on and looked great in a heavy track trial.
Most Likely Disadvantaged
I Am Invincible breed – Santos and Oohood mostly and less likely Fiesta (as has soft track form).
Sunlight – certainly some guess work required – but as a slipper favourite who is a natural speedster yet to see a wet track – it’s a short price to find out.
