Feel free to comment below and call me crazy but looking at the current betting trends and the weather forecast i think we will see a new favourite for the Golden Slipper on Saturday in the way of Mossfun.

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Earthquake has been the outright favourite in betting since she beat Rubick comprehensively in the Blue Diamond Stakes over a month ago but i think she will find herself on the second line of betting when the Golden Slipper field jumps on Saturday at 5pm.

Since the barrier draw was conducted on Tuesday we have continued to see Earthquake’s odds drift from red figures on Monday out to her current quote of $2.60 with online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au whilst Mossfun has had a solid stream of money put on her shortening her quote from $5 into $4.60 and despite the two dollar margin the difference in prices will continue to close.

The two fillies met last start in the Reisling Stakes where they both went into the race unbeaten, they both went forward and fought it out until the final stages of the race in which Earthquake got the upper hand. Earthquake was ridden on the speed that day which probably didn’t suit her but riding her in the accustom position on Saturday just of the speed will mean she will race wide throughout.

Mossfun has two distinct advantages over Earthquake i feel. The first being she has the only wet track form out of the two in which she brained her competition winning by four lengths on the line in the Silver Slipper Stakes which included Magic Millions Classic winner Unencumbered. The weather reports suggest there will be a large down pouring in west Sydney on Friday with light showers continuing through the meeting on Saturday and with a rain affected track the money will pour for the daughter of Mossman.

The second of the advantages is that she has drawn in barrier eleven which will likely be the immediate inside barrier from Earthquake so in-form jockey James McDonald will be able to position his filly inside of Earthquake with instructions to keep the Darley filly posted wide throughout and take her back when she makes her move.

With these two points taken into account and the sentimental money which is likely to come for Unencumbered and Valentia we are likely to see Earthquake drift in the market whilst if the rain comes money for Mossfun will fall from the sky.

If the weather reports are correct i think this could cause a massive change in the betting on the race but who would bet on a weather report being correct?…