It is now ranked alongside the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate as one of the main lead up races to the Melbourne Cup and on Wednesday, a cracking field will look to find their best form in the $300,000 Group lll Centrebet Geelong Cup (2400m) as they head towards the first Tuesday in November. Brigantin, Gatewood and Maluckyday look three main chances, but others could definitely be included.
The three year olds will try and sneak into the Derby field when the line up in the $120,000 Listed Geelong Classic (2200m). It is a very even bunch of youngsters, with no real standout.
Race One: Geelong Milk/Pura Handicap (78) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: The nod goes with Run Diego. A most consistent grey gelding who was super in defeat last start at Ballarat behind the group one performer Unpretentious after sitting deep with no cover. Doesn’t take on much here. If he is allowed to lead, he’ll take a stack of beating.
Don’t Back Me: The drop back to 1200m does suit Spatha, but when you go back through her form, her last win was in a very weak race at Sale. She does look well suited, but not sure if she has the confidence to win.
Big Danger: I give Dashalot a huge chance here. I loved his return run at Echuca last start. Was ridden very poorly by Noonan, but the old grey still packed plenty to only be beaten less than two lengths in a good race. If he can get cover and be in the first couple, he will make sure his rivals know he is in the race at the pointy end.
Roughie: Wannajewel finished third behind in the race that Run Diego contested. He got back and worked home well late. The step up in trip looks ideal and he should be running on again.
Race Two: Schweppes Handicap (62) 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: In a race that appears very even on paper, I am going with a maiden galloper in the shape of Zanteco. He was excellent on debut in a hot maiden, then…ugh, if you backed him, like myself, then don’t watch the replay because he should have absolutely bolted in, but he did not get a crack at them at any stage. If he gets clear room, he’ll be a great chance.
Don’t Back Me: The wraps have been huge on That’s The Way, but he was very plain last start at Seymour. If he brought his old form, then yes, hard to beat, but I can’t trust he will, especially if he is at a stupid price.
Big Danger: Rock ‘N’ Royal ran along in front last start at Cranbourne and was only caught in the last 200m but he toughed it out well for third. If he is ridden a touch more quiet, he can certainly be a threat.
Roughie: Purrplexed sat last in a slowly run race on Cranbourne Cup Day, so for him to finish fourth was a very good effort. He’ll lap up the 1700m and is definitely the best roughie of the afternoon.
Race Three: Pro-Ride Racing Handicap (78) 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for value with Prussian Officer. His form, numerically, isn’t too flash, but he has contested some good races in recent times. This is the easiest contest he has lined up in for a long time and if he found his best form, he’s a great each-way chance.
Don’t Back Me: Arch Fire looks like the type that has to sit back and be saved for one spurt. Barrier one is the worst draw to do this, so he has to be a risk, even though he was good at Bendigo.
Big Danger: Lucky Angel does what Lucky Angel does and that is run honest races, like she did behind Arch Fire. Just a query if she can run 2400m, but she should be given every chance from the barrier and prove a worthy contender.
Roughie: Altonio sat back last week at Caulfield and worked home nicely. His form in New South Wales was solid and he gets out to his right distance now. If they go hard in front, this bloke will be charging late.
Race Four: Geelong Aus Duel Choice Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: If he is anywhere near right, then Under The Eiffel will be winning and winning quite comfortably. Didn’t really produce his best last time in, but that can be put down to unsuitable races and wet tracks, which he hates. Jamie Mott knows him best, he has drawn the rail and when you consider what he has raced up against in the past, he is thrown in at the weights.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat the main pick. He is a clear standout.
Big Danger: From The Terrace needs a dry track and he proved that with a strong win at Mornington. Always has had the talent, but at times he does lack the x factor to win the good races. If he brings his best, he is right in contention.
Roughie: Agrippa may need this run, but his form during the Autumn was outstanding. Look for him to sit midfield and work to the line as he will probably head towards a listed event during Flemington Carnival.
Race Five: Market Square Shopping Centre Handicap (68) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Going to give Renegade Arrow another chance because he hasn’t been suited in his two runs this time in. 4kg apprentice rode him first up and was beaten not far in a hot race, then failed in the slop at Ballarat. Forgive him for those runs and expect a much more improved showing and he looks good odds.
Don’t Back Me: How on earth is Rollerball a $7.50 chance!? He should be a $501 chance because he has just been dreadful since returning from a spell.
Big Danger: Felidea is a frustrating horse to follow for punters given his racing pattern, which is to sit back and get luck. Most of the time, he doesn’t get luck, but he still races well and with Rodd on board here, he could be able to steer him home.
Roughie: Forgive Rose Pattern for her second up run at Mornington because she simply doesn’t perform at all second up. She is better than that and can certainly make the improvement required to win.
Race Six: Mr Paparazzi Geelong Classic 2200m Form Guide
Back Me: The best form in the race lies with Road Trippin. Fifth behind Hvasstan, fourth behind Pierro then fifth behind the three best colts in Australia when he contested the Caulfield Guineas. He sat three wide in the Guineas, so the 2200m really should not be an issue because he races as if he’ll handle it no problems. Hard to beat and looks the value at $8.
Don’t Back Me: Steering well clear of the two Sydney youngsters, Solemn and Our Desert Warrior. They were both terrible in their respective last starts in much easier company. They cannot be had here.
Big Danger: Escado is one of these types of horses that runs his races in patches. The talent is definitely there, but he doesn’t put together a strong 100% race. If he learns to do that soon, he could be winning good races. He’ll prove hard to hold out here.
Roughie: It takes a handy three year old to beat the older horses, especially at this time of year. Danas Best has done it in his last two starts. Don’t rule him out at all.
Race Seven: Centrebet Geelong Cup 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: I am only going on what we’ve been told from Werribee, but if what they are saying is true, then Brigantin should be toying with this field. The carer for Dunaden has said that this horse is the big threat for the Melbourne Cup. This horse does tick all the boxes. Class, distance, track condition are no issues and as I said, from all reports he has been flying in trackwork. That’s enough for me.
Don’t Back Me: Tac De Boistron has had 10 starts on firm tracks and hasn’t run a drum. No thanks.
Big Danger: The two big threats are Gatewood and Maluckyday. Gatewood was luckless in the Herbet Power, and perhaps not ridden the best. He is a great chance, as is the 2010 Melbourne Cup runner up. Great to see Cassidy back on and it’d be wonderful to see him win en route to Flemington.
Roughie: Chateaux Margaux is a nice mare heading places. This is a bit rich, but she should still run wel
Race Eight: BC3 Thoroughbreds Black Pearl Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Gossip Girl looks the great value here. Forget she went around behind Detours because she was trapped wide the whole race and never was going to feature after that. She should get a very comfortable lead and at Geelong, that is a definite advantage. Have something each way on her at the $9 mark.
Don’t Back Me: Stacey Lee looks a bit short for mare. Sure, she was impressive at Albury, but it was Albury and she beat nothing. She takes on some quality mares here.
Big Danger: Koonoomoo is finally putting it all together. Once upon a time, she couldn’t win a race. Now she is mixing it with some of the better mares in Victoria and doing well. She will get the perfect run and prove awfully hard to beat.
Roughie: Spot On Maggie still can’t get out from last start. She has had no luck this time in. Give her an ounce of luck and she could easily win this at good odds.
Race NIne: A & L Windows & Doors Handicap (78) 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: In all honesty, a very poor race to close out the afternoon. New York looks the one just based on current form. The race was set up for him at Cranbourne where he sat last because they went crazy in front. From barrier one here, he should sit a touch closer without doing much work at all. The top pick in betting and well deserved.
Don’t Back Me: Just got a question mark about Sabres. She has been hot this preparation, but she can be ice cold. Be cautious about taking a short price for her.
Big Danger: Chatrang rarely wins, but runs his usual honest race. He races as if 1500m and beyond will suit him, and his last start was excellent. A certain threat to the top tip.
Roughie: Would not be shocked at all if the injury plagued Studley Park ran a race here. He was involved in that hot pace which won the race for New York at Cranbourne, but he is better ridden colder. An exotic player at a massive price.