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Festival Stakes Tips – 2014

Queensland trainer Steve O’Dea is line for his first Sydney feature races according to punters who have supported his gelding Sir Moments into favouritism for Saturday’s Festival Stakes at Rosehill. Sir Moments opened up $4.80 but firmed into $4.40 and outright favouritism with Generalife ($4.60) on the second line of betting. The only other runner in the capacity field under $10.00 is last start winner Strawberry Boy ($9.00). Only one of the past six winners of this race has carried more than 55.5kgs to victory and interesting to note, that wide barriers haven’t seem to harm the chances of runners, with four of the last six coming from gate nine or wider.

 

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1. MONTON – S Clipperton (10) 60kgs

Grand campaigner who lines up for his fourth consecutive start in the Festival Stakes, a race he won in 2011, finished second in 2012 and eighth in last year’s edition. He recorded a much deserved win two starts back, defeating I’m Imposing by a neck over 1500m and backed that up with a tenacious second (0.8 lengths) behind Strawberry Boy in the Listed Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury. Heart Testa ran third in that race and won well since. Despite the big weight and wider draw, hard can’t write the old boy off given his form and strong record at this track.

Generalife – Festival Stakes 2014

 

2. MOURO – K McEvoy (3) 59kgs

Returned to racing off a sixth month spell under the steadier of 60kgs and ran a fantastic second to Heart Testa in an Open handicap (1350m) at Rosehill a fortnight ago. Did a great job to get so close to the winner, who enjoyed a lovely drop behind a hot tempo and had relatively lighter weight of 57.5kgs. The Tony McEvoy trained runner has a good second up record of 5:2-1-0 and ran seventh (5.2 lengths) second up last prep in the G2 Ajax Stakes. The nice draw and additional fitness could see him add to the above stats in some manner.

 

3. AOMEN –       (13) 58.5kgs

Tremendous effort, even if he was allowed to dictate the pace in front, by horse and trainer to win his first start in Australia off a eighteen month spell, when leading all the way in an Open Handicap (1400m). The former Hong Kong galloper was then taken to Victoria by trainer Anthony Cummings to contest the Listed Mss Security Stakes (1200m) on Cup day, but he failed to have the same impact against the better class of opposition and finished thirteenth behind Reparations. A return to Sydney, a turning track and an extra trip should see a quick form improvement but the outside gate will see him tested.

 

4. STRAWBERRY BOY – J Parr (9) 57.5kgs

Returned from a spell with a tough win in the Listed Ladies Day Cup (1400m) at Hawkesbury two weeks ago, settling on a solid pace and finding plenty when challenged late by Monton and Heart Testa. The Chris Waller trained galloper ran a head second to Mecir in the Group 3 Newcastle Newmarket Handicap second up last prep, which was his third win from five second-up runs, and will only be fitter again for the first up victory. Hard not to see him involved in the finish.

 

5. GENERALIFE – B Shinn (4)

The Godolphin galloper won three straight here at Rosehill during the winter including the Listed Civic (1350m) and Winter (1400m) Stakes. He was then given a freshen up for the spring and has been knocking on the door of win in four runs since. He ran second to subsequent Group 1 winner Hucklebuck two starts back and went within a nose of a deserved win in the Listed Kevin Heffernan Stakes when nosed out on the line by Fast’n’Rocking. In sold form, returns to his favourite track, drawn perfectly and has the leading hoop to steer – there’s nothing not to like about his chances here.

 

6. HEART TESTA – J Bowman (8) 56.5kgs

After a long lay-off of near nine months, the 5yo gelding needed a few runs to get back to peak , condition and signalled he was almost there two starts back, in the Listed Ladies Day Cup (1400m), when third to Strawberry Boy (1.2 lengths). His only start since saw him land in the perfect spot in an Open handicap, trailing a hot speed over the 1350m trip. He hit the front full of running in the straight and despite peaking late, had enough in hand to hold of the late challenge of Mouro. Honest in given the right run but will find this race a tougher assignment than his last couple and goes beyond 1400m for the first time.

 

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7. SCREAM MACHINE – T Clark (5) 56kgs

The Jason Coyle trained galloper was in great form last campaign, running a unlucky sixth in the G1 Doomben 10,000 before winning two in a row and finishing a close up third in the Listed Winter Stakes behind Generalife. He has had two runs back and just found the pace too slick first up over 1100m when last of six behind Our Boy Malachi, and again, with the leading stretching the field out, he got too far back in the run and under 59.5kgs, did all he could do in running eighth (3.6 lengths) behind Heart Testa. Gets a nice drop in the weights now, a suitable trip and can settle closer from a good draw and more even tempo. Could be a sharp improver.

 

8. SIR MOMENTS – T Bell (11) 56kgs

The Choisir gelding recorded his six win from only twelve starts when a comfortable victor in a 1400m Open handicap on the Gold Coast last start, his second run back this prep. The Steve O’Dea representative settled midfield and made light of his opposition and 59kgs in the run home, winning by a length on the line. Could have contested the Listed Recognition Stakes (1600m) in his home-state but has opted for the trip down and that should be seen as a positive lead.

 

9. HOYLONNY – J Collett (12) 55.5kgs

His won two races in the last twelve months and started as a 14/1 and 30/1 shot when victorious so to say this bloke can be hard to catch is an understatement. He hasn’t raced for ten weeks now and his form prior to the let-up, over middle distances, was mixed at best. Recent fresh record is plain and hasn’t won below 1800m for close to two years.

 

10. I’M IMPOSING – T Angland (6) 55.5kgs

Returned from a eight week freshen up with a strong neck second to in-form Monton – both when carrying 58.5kgs, before heading south to contest the G1 Emirates Stakes (1600m). Drew poorly (14) in the Emirates and never threatened from the back of the field in the run home, finishing second to last and thirteen lengths from the winner Hucklebuck. Better suited back to this grade, drawn well and although he hasn’t won one, hasn’t missed a place in five starts this track/trip. Could easily keep that record intact here.

 

11. ESTONIAN PRINCESS – B Avdulla (1) 54kgs

Underrated mare racing in good heart even though she is finding it hard to break through for a win. She was bettered by a head in the Angst Stakes (1600m) by Neena Rock and then went to Melbourne for the G1 Myer Classic and G3 Summond Stakes. She ran a typically honest race in the Myer, closing well from the back half of the field to run fifth (1.7 lengths) to Bonaria and then settled handier to the speed from a poor draw (13) in the Summond and found the late challengers too hard to hold off up the Sandown straight, finishing fifth again, four lengths behind Politeness. This will be her seventh start this campaign and just wonder if her she’ll still at her peak, as she’ll have to be to win here, after Melbourne.

 

12. MECIR – D Dunn (2) 54kgs

The son of Lonhro rounded out last campaign, which included a smart win in the G3 Newcastle Newmarket, with a poor last of thirteen as the 7/2 favourite and was immediately spelled. Unfortunately though, the break doesn’t have seen to helped him in away way judging by his two runs back from a spell that have seen him finish last in both the Listed Italktravle Stakes (won by In Cahoots) and Yellowglen Stakes behind Hucklebuck. Has had a trial since his return to Sydney but seems a long way off his best form at the moment.

 

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13. MULTILATERAL – G Schofield (14) 54kgs

The winner of the Wyong Gold Cup (2100m) in September, the 6yo grey gelding returns to racing here after a brief break of eight weeks. Best runs come a few runs into his prep and over a middle distance. Hard to see him with enough acceleration to round this field up in the straight from the back, which is where he’ll settle from the wide draw.

 

14. KEEP COOL –     (7) 54kgs

Drifted from 40/1 to 60/1 for his first up run over an unsuitable 1350m however, he was ok late and finished within three lengths of the winner Heart Testa. Fitter again and has run some cheeky races second up in the past, including a third placing (at 100/1) in the G3 Hawkesbury Cup (1600m) last campaign.

 

RACE OVERVIEW

Heart Testa, Strawberry Boy and Monton, who are drawn alongside of each other in gates eight nine and ten, push forward with Mouro, Generalife and Estonian Princess drawn closer to the fence, all keen to make the most of their draws and find a nice spot. Can’t leave Generalife now! Been with ever since he ran a luckless fourth in the G2 Premiere Stakes and only the 59kgs got him last start. Draws a lovely gate, loves Rosehill and deserves a win. Strawberry Boy will give them plenty to catch. Good win first up and front runners do not have a bad record in this race. Did think he was weighted to his best given that prior to last start, he had only won in Open company but, he has always promised a lot and could be ready to deliver this prep. Thought Mouro was over the odds at $10.00. He will take huge benefit from his first up run, which was a beauty behind Heart Testa (Strawberry Boy form-line) and McEvoy plus a good draw, has him right in the mix.

 

Value, Scream Machine ($12)

1. GENERALIFE

2. STRAWBERRY BOY

3. MOURO

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