Festival Stakes 2013 – Tips

Two exciting gallopers Terravista and White Sage meet here in the feature race of the day, the Festival Stakes. The pair, who between them have won eight of their nine races, dominate the betting with Terravista ($3.20), who has drawn well in barrier 2, whilst White Sage is $3.60 despite drawing the widest gate in a big field. Their dominance of the market does create some attractive prices on other runners in what should be, not only a competitive race but also, an intriguing betting affair.

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Festival Stakes Form Guide

1. MALAVIO – P Robl (12) 59kgs.

Excellent three starts back when ¾ of a length fifth behind Boban in the G1 Doncaster Handicap (1600m) before a failed venture to Moonee Valley for the G2 Crystal Mile where he finished sixth, beaten just over eight lengths, behind Toydini. A three week break and return to Sydney saw him run fourth at Rosehill a fortnight ago over 1350m where from a wide gate, he set the pace before holding on well to finish 1.4 lengths behind in-form Ninth Legion. Drawn wide again and has an extra 1kg. Winner of this race last year carrying 55kgs.

Strike The Stars
Strike The Stars

 

2. ALMA’S FURY – K O’Hara (3) 58.5kgs

The Paul Murray trained 6yo finished just over three lengths behind Toydini in the G3 Cameron Handicap (carrying 59kgs) before a brief break of eight weeks. He returned to racing a fortnight ago in a 1350m race at Rosehill and just lost a length or two heading into the turn before gathering momentum and closing well late to run 2 lengths fifth behind Ninth Legion and Said Com. Better for having had that run and this distance suits (has won 2 form 4 this track/trip). Drawn to get a nice run from gate three and at $17.00, represent value.

 

3. SHE’S CLEAN – J Collett (14) 57.5kgs

The Redoute’s Choice mare returned from a break with a fast finishing half length fifth behind Arinosa in the G2 Premiere Stakes (1200m) before a very uncharacteristic effort saw her finish last in the G3 Nivison. Trailed before returning back to her customary form and producing another strong finish to run third behind Plucky Belle and Arinosa in the G3 Lavazza Stakes on Melbourne Cup Day. Will get back and has her fair share of weight to carry against the males here.

 

4. DESTINY’S KISS – (9) 56.5kgs

Promising stayer and stable-mate to the favourite, the Power Of Destiny gelding resumed after finishing fifth as 7/2 favourite in July’s Grafton Cup (2350m) with a pleasing effort in a 1350m Open class race at here at Rosehill a fortnight ago. Settling toward the tail of the field, he wasn’t pushed hard in the straight but closed well nevertheless to finish three lengths behind Ninth Legion in seventh spot. Probably needs further again but given he drops 1.5kgs, steps up in trip and should appreciate the solid tempo that they will set here, wouldn’t think he is the worst long-shot in the race.

 

5. MONTON – S Clipperton (15) 56.5kgs

The son of Catbird was placed in the G2 Ajax Stakes and went within a lip of claiming the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes earlier this year. After those efforts in the autumn, more was expected from him in the three runs he produced after returning from a spell in August, the latest of which saw him have every chance in the run before finishing 3.4 lengths behind Rain Drum in the G2 Shannon Stakes. Trainer Ron Quinton has given him a brief eight week break which was the same case last year when he finished second in this race carrying 59kgs.

 

6. SAID COM – J Bowman (5) 56.5kgs

The Chris Waller trained runner keeps promising too but as yet; still hasn’t been able to land that quality race win. He has won one of his last fifteen starts but he did go within a half a length of breaking that drought last start when second to Ninth Legion, his second run back from a spell. Was afforded every chance in the run – as will be the case here from a good draw – and should be at his peak now third run back but rises 2kgs and hasn’t won past 1400m.

 

7. ALL LEGAL – B Avdulla (13) 56kgs

Sent out as a 100/1 chance when making his comeback off a seven month spell and ran accordingly when second to last and over eight lengths from Heart Testa in a BM 90 (1100m). He was in good form this time last year, claiming a Listed race at Hawkesbury before taking out the G2 Villiers Stakes but impossible to include him here off the one run back.

 

8. MERLIN MUSTANG – J Ford (8) 56kgs

Like many here, he too resumed for trainer Mick Tubman in the 1350m Open class race a fortnight ago. From an inside draw he settled three back on the fence and pushed himself into a good spot on the turn but being first up, couldn’t go with Ninth Legion over the final stages and finished sixth (2.6 lengths). He’ll be better for that run but will have to be has this is a tough race. Has attempted a few Listed races in the past and whilst he applied himself well, was found to be just a length or two of the pace, which may be the case here again.

 

9. STRIKE THE STARS – B Shinn (7) 56kgs

Produced an outstanding effort first up, three runs back, to record only his second career win when nosing out Coup Ay Tee over 1400m. He was then sent south and caught the eye finishing hard and running third in the Tab.com.au Stakes behind in-form pair of Smokin’ Joey and Galah. His latest start was in the G1 Emirates Stakes where again from the tail of the field, he finished 2.1 lengths (eighth) behind Boban. Going as well as he ever has and delivering on the potential he displayed as a younger horse. Will need some luck in running given his racing pattern but should it come, will be right in the mix.

 

10. TROMSO – J Parr (11) 55.5kgs

Trainer Chris Waller has tried a new tactic with this 7yo in his last two starts and ridden him in a forward position and, it has paid handsome dividends. He finished a nose second to stable-mate Secessio before claiming the Listed Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury where he out-bobbed Ninth Legion on the line. Carried 58kgs last start and Ninth Legion came out last week and won an Open class race, defeating a number of horses entered here. Don’t think they’ll be able to lead here today but he’s going too well to ignore and $21 seems a good price given the form-lines.

 

11. NINTH LEGION – T Berry (4) 55kgs.

The son of Fastnet Rock hasn’t put a foot wrong in three starts back this prep. He finished a nose second to Tromso in the Listed Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury two starts back before a lovely ride last week from Robl, had the 4yo in the perfect position throughout in a Open class (1350m) race where he proved too strong, winning by half a length. Will or should get a lovely run in transit here and he’s another who, at his current quote of $10.00, should attract a fair share of support.

 

12. COURT CONNECTION – (6) 54kgs.

Stayer from the Goulburn stables of Danny Williams who, when resuming from a six month spell, finished last behind Ninth Legion here at Rosehill a fortnight ago. He needs it a lot longer than this and to see him finish in the first half of the field would surprise.

 

13. LIMES – (17) 54kgs

The Darley runner can claim a win over Boban when the pair met in the Listed Hawkesbury Guineas last season as three year olds. He had no luck when resuming in the G2 Premiere Stakes and pay no attention to the thirteenth of fifteen listed in form guides. The son of Commands then ventured to Flemington for the final race on Stakes day where he settled on the speed and chased home leader and eventual winner Longport, finishing fifth (2.6 lengths). That was his first run for over a month and has had another barrier trail since to bring him on even further but the draw makes his task a difficult one.

 

14. WHITE SAGE – J McDonald (18) 54kgs

Made it four wins from as many starts when scoring in impressive style last start, winning a BM 80 (1350m) by 3 ½ lengths over El Of A Time. Led last start and has settled close to the speed in each of her starts but the daughter of Reset has drawn the car-park here – gate 18. How much petrol does she burn early? Does she get lucky and find a spot? Is she better still when ridden off the speed? She certainly has talent but from her gate with the above questions to be answered, would be in no hurry to take the price currently on offer.

 

15. TERRAVISTA – G Schofield (2)

The half brother to well performed Tiger Tees and Singapore Horse of the Year and Champion 3yo Super Easy, made it three wins on the trot with a ¾ of a length win last weekend over King Cobia. He sat on the speed and whilst he wasn’t devastating as an 8/15 on favourite should be, he was always going to win the BM 85 (1400m). Post race, both trainer and Jockey indicated the horse would be better again with a sit which should be obtainable from this good draw. That said, would’ve liked to have seen a bit more from him last start when being asked to take $3.20 in a race such as this.

 

16. FEDDE – T Clark (10) 54kgs (1st EM)

Plain effort first up from a spell when finishing second to last behind Goldstone in a BM 80 (1200m) before an improved effort when two lengths fifth behind Tromso and Ninth Legion in the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury. Did have box seat last start and will have to improve again if to be competitive here.

 

17. REFLECTANCE – (16) 54kgs (2nd EM)

Enjoyed the strong pace of the race and flashed home to run a head second to Terravista in a BM 80 (1200m) before getting back in a race dominated by those up on the speed when fifth (beaten 2 ¾ lengths) again, behind Terravista. Will enjoy both the distance and tempo if he gets a start but doubts remain over the class.

 

18. IMPERIL – (1) 54kgs (3rd EM)

Held on well when leading first up and carrying 59kgs to run fourth (2.2 lengths) behind Adaboy Ross before getting a nice run in transit and finishing a head second to promising Koroibete – again with 59kgs in BM 75 (1350m) Definitely not far off a win but wouldn’t picture this race being it.

 

RACE OVERVIEW

Can’t knock the form of Terravista or White Sage and both horses have both earned their shot at a good race such as this however, when asked to take the price on offer in the early markets, there a few niggling questions over both that get flushed out. This does create some good value about other quality horse in the race such as Strike The Stars. To finish two lengths from Boban is as good as a form reference that is going around at present. He got a long way back last start over the mile but could settle mid-field here and the pace of the race should suit. Second up off an eight week break last time in, Alma’s Fury ran sixth (beaten less than two lengths) behind Shoot Out in the WFA Chipping Norton Stakes. He has drawn well, produced a good effort in this race last year from a wide gate, and would expect a better effort than his $17.00 quote suggests he’ll produce.

  1. STRIKE THE STARS
  2. ALMA’S FURY
  3. TERRAVISTA
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