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Epsom Handicap Tips – 2014

The first of three Group 1 races that will round out a tremendous day’s racing at Randwick this Saturday is the time-honoured Epsom Handicap. In the past ten years, Gai Waterhouse has won five Epsom Handicaps but punters are keen on her chances of adding to that tally this year with her two runners, Liberty’s Choice and Pheidon, at $26 and $51 respectively. Punters are more inclined to think that last year’s winning Trainer Chris Waller, will go back to back with one of his four runners. Leading the Waller charge and markets overall is Royal Descent ($4.60) and He’s Your Man ($6.00) who will be ridden by visiting superstar jockey “Magic Man” Joao Moreira Waller’s other representatives is last year’s winner Boban ($7.00) and Lucky Chappy ($51.00). If successful, Waller will claim the rare feat of winning the Doncaster/Epsom double in consecutive years.

 

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1. BOBAN – G Schofield (1) 58kgs

The sensational winner of this race last year with 53kgs has found the step up to WFA races harder than anticipated with his record this year reading 8: 1-0-0. He made a pleasing return in the G2 Missile Stakes, closing well to finish within ¾ of Sweet Idea before heading to Melbourne were as the 13/4 favourite, he finished fifth (3.7 lengths) behind Dissident. Found that horse to good again when having every chance in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) last start, finishing fifth (2.7 lengths) Has been sharpened up with a winning barrier trial last week but expected more from him the last two starts and the inside gate for a horse getting back, could be as much a problem as an advantage.

 

2. ROYAL DESCENT – H Bowman 55.5kgs

She has run three second placings since resuming from a spell in August, taking her record since her last win, the 2013 Australian Oaks, to 12: 0-6-1. As she did in her first two starts this campaign, she enjoyed a lovely run in transit but didn’t sprint as well as stable-mate Sacred Falls when the run they both went for opened and finished 1.3 behind him in the G1 George Main Stakes. Sacred Falls was again her nemesis when in the G1 Doncaster over this course earlier in the year, she again ran second after looking all over the winner with 100m to go. Carried 54kgs in the Doncaster and after competing in WFA events, drops nicely to 55.5kgs here. Whilst her form is frustrating, it’s better than most lining up here and she’ll be right in the mix again.

Royal Descent – Epsom Handicap 2014

 

3. TOYDINI – J McDonald (8) 55.5kgs

Despite an average record first up and on wet tracks, the 5yo gelding’s run in the G2 Tramway Stakes (1400m) first up on a heavy track was very good. He settled at the tail of the field before coming home well out wide to claim third behind the impressive winner Lucia Valentina – good again since – and the in-form Tiger Tees. He backed that up with good effort in the George Main Stakes (1600m) where he again settled back and came wide, in a race that favoured those closer to the speed and fence, and was doing good work late when eighth (3.6 lengths). Ran third to Boban in this race last year third up with 54kgs and going just as well this time around for mine.

 

4. LASER HAWK – C Brown (12) 53.5kgs

He has three runs back off a long spell of fifteen months with the most recent a bold effort when third (1.8 lengths) to Sacred Falls and Royal Descent in the G1 George Main Stakes (1600m). Crossed from a wide gate to lead and fought on well. Drops to a weight he hasn’t carried since competing as a three year and combined with is last start effort, would have to rate a chance of a place.

 

5. STAR ROLLING – M Meech (2) 53kgs

Returned to racing with a determined win in the P B Lawrence Stakes, defeating Spillway by nose after finding a good spot on a moderate speed. That signalled the 5yo was in for a good campaign but he has been a touch disappointing in two subsequent runs, the G2 Dato Tan and G1 Underwood Stakes. He was found out the last furlong in the Dato Chan after chasing bold front-runner The Cleaner and finished sixth (1.9 lengths) before getting a lovely run off the pace in the Underwood but failing to improver his position, running eighth (3.1 lengths) behind Foreteller. Needs to lift on his last couple but drawn well and dropping down to 53kgs will give him every chance to do so.

 

6. HE’S YOUR MAN – J Moreira (10) 52.5kgs

Winner of two of his four starts this prep, the former import looks well placed here. After a four week break he needed the run when third (2 lengths) behind Greatwood in the Listed Premier’s Cup (1800m) before recording a comprehensive win in the G3 Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) three weeks ago. Settled three back the running line before easing out and rounding up the opposition easily and record a 1.3 length win. Possess a good turn of foot and whilst this will be his biggest test to date in Australia, he can measure up.

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7. HONORIUS – W Costin (6) 52.5kgs

Hasn’t lived up to the promise he showed as a three year and the now 5yo stallion has been winless from five starts over the past twelve months. He didn’t handle the wet conditions when second to last in the G2 Tramway Stakes (1400m) second up before finding the right spot on the leader’s, and eventual winner Junoob, back in the G2 Hill Stakes. Only battled home last start and whilst he drops considerably in weight and has drawn a good gate, it’s hard to include him with any confidence.

 

8. HOOKED – S Clipperton (14) 52kgs

After a string of close up finishes in major races, the Casino Prince Stallion finally recorded a much deserved feature win when leading all the way to record a 1.5 length win in the G3 Cameron Handicap (1500m). Ridden a treat out in front by Blake Shinn in the Cameron, he controlled the race and was strong through the line. Draw here however will not help his chances and he’ll need luck early to find a spot on the speed as it’s hard to see him running some of the down from behind.

 

9. NINTH LEGION – C Munce (9) 52kgs

Sat on the speed and stuck on well second up when third (1.7 lengths) behind Cluster in the Theo Marks before again from on-pace position, fighting strongly to the line when third (3.9 lengths) to Rock Sturdy last week’s G2 Shannon Stakes. Had Rock Sturdy backed up here he would’ve started close to if not the favourite. Ran fifth in the Doncaster Handicap, carrying 51.5kgs, third up from a spell earlier this year and with a weight drop of 6.5kgs from last start and the services of Chris Munce, he represents a good light-weight chance.

 

10. LUCKY CHAPPY – J Lloyd (4) 52kgs

Caught the eye finishing well first up behind Entirely Platinum when sixth (2.8 lengths) in an Open Handicap before finding the combination of a wet track and big weight (60kgs) too much at his following start in a BM 95 (1500m) and running fourth (3.5 lengths). His next and most recent start saw the 6yo follow the eventual winner He’s Your Man home in the G3 Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) but he couldn’t match that horses sprint late and ran fourth (2.4 lengths). The 2000m probably sees him out and a return to the mile is to his benefit but hard to see him turning the tables on He’s Your Man let only defeating some others.

 

11. JETSET LAD – A Allen (7) 52kgs

Secured a lovely run in transit and although trying hard, could do no better than finishing fourth in the G2 Theo Marks (1400m) before, at his most recent start, finding the depth of competition too strong and finishing well back in the Shannon Stakes. Led last start but offered very little run home and can’t see him winning this race off of that effort.

 

12. LIBERTY’S CHOICE – T Clark (5) 52kgs

The well bred Redoute’s Choice colt competed well in 3yo races during the winter carnival in Brisbane, running close up placings behind Sir Moments in both the G2 Qld Guineas and Listed Daybreak Lover Stakes. Never fired a shot first up in a BM 85 (1200m) settling at the tail of the field and failing to improve his positions before a markedly improved effort last start in the G2 Shannon Stakes. Tim Clark rode him out of the gates to find the one/one before peeling out at the top of the straight and beating all bar Rock Sturdy home. Fitter again, drawn an ideal gate in two to take up another advantageous position in the run and might run a better race than his $21.00 price would indicate.

 

13. PHEIDON – T Heut (3) 52kgs

He worked his way through the grades in good style last campaign, winning the G2 Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) before running second to Arabian Gold in the G3 Frank Packer Plate (2000m). Resumed in the G2 Tramway but not surprisingly, found the 1400m and WFA conditions too slick and strong finishing ninth of twelve behind Lucia Valentina. He then finished fourth in last fortnight’s Bill Ritchie (1400m) behind Manawanui and Rock Sturdy. Manawanui is a class galloper who won well and Rock Sturdy won in similar style last week and although he takes up a good spot from his draw, would still prefer to see him in something easier and longer still.

 

14. WOODBINE – C Reith (13) 52kgs

Son of Golden Slipper winner and Champion filly Miss Finland, he recorded his fourth career win last week in a BM 84 (1350m) with a strong effort. He was wide and midfield before finishing well down the centre of the track to defy the challenge of the fast finishing Amovatio by a head. Has had a crack at some good races in the past – All Aged Stakes, Phar Lap Stakes and even started favourite for the Hobartville Stakes as 3yo, the race ultimately won by Dissident, but has come up a bit short on each occasion and will not find this race any easier than those.

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15. SPY DECODER – J Ford (15) 52kgs

Returned with an eye-catching finish in a BM 75 (1100m) behind Beckon, signalling that the Anthony Cumming galloper who finished last prep in encouraging style, was set for a good campaign. He then run second in heavy conditions to wet track specialist Supreme Warriors before, at his most recent run, getting back in a slowly run Cameron Handicap and finishing seventh (3.4 lengths) behind Hook. Better horse that the run would suggest but not that good to be winning a Group 1 handicap from the widest gate.

 

RACE OVERVIEW AND SELECTIONS

Can Royal Descent crack it for a much deserved G1 win? It’s taken some top-line performers to prevent the mare recording her first win since the Australian Derby but that duck can be broken here. Toydini is the threat for mine – he has hit the line well in each of his two runs back and went close in this race third up last year. Bowman, who rides Royal Descent because he couldn’t get down to the weight of 52.5kgs for He’s Your Man, was glowing in his report of this galloper after his Kingston Town Stakes win and rightly so. Looking for value, Ninth Legion and Liberty’s Choice, two who should take up a forward position appear the best chances of adding value to the exotics.

  1. ROYAL DESCENT
  2. TOYDINI
  3. HE’S YOUR MAN
  4. NINTH LEGION
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