Australia’s feature race meeting will be run at Doomben racecourse on Saturday were we will see the running of the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 which see’s last start BTC Cup winner Your Song hold favouritism in.
The weather looks to be relatively clear in Queensland and it’s likely the track will be be a Dead rating come race time.
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Race One: Brisbane Town Plate 1350m Form Guide
Back Me: Gold Flow never got clear at his only career start in which he should have won in my opinion. Should get every chance on Saturday and looks good value.
Don’t Back Me: Outstrip ran well last start but from barrier 15 i think he is a big risk at the odds in this race.
Big Danger: Shawano is coming out of a good race in Sydney and finds an easier field on Saturday were she looks the horse to beat.
Roughie: Just A Perla is yet to miss a placing from four starts and finds a relatively similar class field on Saturday were he looks great value.
$500 Gold Flow Free Bet
Race Two: Ambassador Travel Hcp 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: The Conspirator wound up well last start in the Dittman Plate. Finds a similar class field here and the $21 on offer looks tremendous value.
Don’t Back Me: Reflectance will drop in class a lot although i think he is under the odds due to running in a Group 1 last start were he was well beaten.
Big Danger: Tukiyo has won three from three and could quite easily make it four in a row on Saturday were he looks a massive player in the race.
Roughie: Rocky King took a lot to run down last start and i think it will be the same on Saturday were he looks good value and with an easy lead could quite easily win.
$500 The Conspirator Free Bet
Race Three: Novotel Brisbane Airport (c6) 1350m Form Guide
Back Me: Someday has shown he is a very good horse and has only missed the placings once from ten starts. Has drawn wide but will go back anyways and the race looks to have a bit of tempo which will suit him. Three from Three over track and distance.
Don’t Back Me: Peron has won four from five but steps up a lot in class which is a concern at the odds.
Big Danger: New Day Rising will go to the front and always proves hard to get past. If he can get some cheap sectionals in the run he will be hard to beat.
Roughie: Show Affection was disappointing lasts start but if you look past that run she has pretty good form and at $51 should be added to multiples.
$500 Someday Free Bet
Race Four: Glenlogan Park Stakes 1350m Form Guide
Back Me: Bound To Blush ran very well first up and will likely go forward from the wide barrier and if she can get some slow pace upfront which she should she will be very hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Arinosa has improved out of sight in the past year but despite that i think the even money in this race is poor value. Untried at the distance and track. Despite that he can certainly win the race but i think there is better value on offer.
Big Danger: Risk Aversion is coming out of the Coolmore Classic and despite running tenth wasn’t beaten that far on the line. Finds an easier race here and looks well weighted.
Roughie: Quidnunc hit the line strongly last start and will improve from the run and the added distance. Will start at double figure odds which i think is good value.
$500 Bound To Blush Free Bet
Race Five: Brc Sires’ Produce Stakes 1350m Form Guide
Back Me: Missy Longstocking is a very good horse and she has drawn a good barrier and gets in better in the weights on Saturday. Two starts at the track for two wins and with the money for Zoustar is at good odds.
Don’t Back Me: Hooked is a good horse although i think the on top selection and biggest danger may have him for class.
Big Danger: Zoustar has won two from two in Sydney and has been heavily backed to win on Saturday and is the horse the on top selection has to beat.
Roughie: Paximadia i had on top last start against Zoustar. Put in a bad run but is capable of bouncing back at big odds.
$500 Missy Longstocking Free Bet
Race Six: Chief De Beers Qlty Hcp 1110m Form Guide
Back Me: Griffon i thought was very unlucky last start. Finds another winnable race here and will go back in a race which looks to have a lot of speed in it and will be finishing over the top of them.
Don’t Back Me: Karuta Queen will be contested up front in the race i feel with a lot of speed on paper which should set it up for those coming from behind.
Big Danger: Pentasia runs well fresh and will go back in the run which i think is the winning pattern for this race. Classy galloper in the making.
Roughie: Spirit Song is a classy runner and despite the big weight can win this race. Likely to go back from the wide barrier and at $26 is worth an each way bet.
$500 Griffon Free Bet
Race Seven: Grand Prix Stakes 2200m Form Guide
Back Me: Honorius i think is very well suited in this race he has been around the mark in some good races and the extra distance here should suit. Will go back in the run and be finishing off well at good odds.
Don’t Back Me: Hawkspur won well last start but i think the bias helped him do so with not much ground being made out wide. Taking that into account i think he is under the odds.
Big Danger: Ambitious Champion is a NZ galloper who has never run outside of the first two from six starts and looks a big danger.
Roughie: Lucky Lucky Lucky was disappointing last start but im happy to forgive that run. Before that hit the line strongly and the extra distance should suit.
$500 Honorius Free Bet
Race Eight: Carlton Mid Doomben 10,000 1350m Form Guide
Back Me: Epaulette was disappointing last start in the All Aged Stakes but still hit the line well and wasn’t beaten far. Looks very well placed here and should take a lot of beating.
Don’t Back Me: Your Song blitzed them last start on a heavy track. I don’t think he is as good on top of the ground and from barrier 15 i wouldn’t be backing him.
Big Danger: Buffering lost the race at the start in the BTC Cup and will be better on top of the ground. If he can jump well on Saturday he is the horse to beat.
Roughie: Steps In Time will go forward in the race and if Buffering misses the jump again should get a relatively easy lead and prove hard to run down.
$500 Epaulette Free Bet
Race Nine: Channel Seven Premier’s Cup 2200m Form Guide
Back Me: Margins didn’t handle the going last start and will be better on top of the ground. Will go back from the barrier and will be finishing the race off well at good odds.
Don’t Back Me: Midsummer Sun has won his last two but they haven’t been the best races. Jumps up in class and looks to be under the odds in the race.
Big Danger: Less Is More won last start and drops in weight from that run. Has won over the distance and looks a big chance.
Roughie: Shamardashing drops in weight and finds an easier field than last start and will jump in double figure odds which is good value.
$500 Margins Free Bet
Best Bet: Griffon should get all the favours this start with a race that on paper looks to have a ton of speed allowing him to go back and finish off down the outside.
Next Best: Honorius continues to improve each time he has stepped up in distance and Saturday’s race looks to suit him well and can be backed each way.
Best Roughie: The Conspirator looks great value on Saturday he took a long time to wind up lasts start but hit the line well will go back and could run over the top of them.
