Race four on the Ascot card is the first of four Black Type races and sees a field of eight runners line-up for a scamper over the 1000m. After a disappointing effort in the Listed Northerly Stakes in October, Texan returns to racing and will looking to make five wins from his last seven starts.
Special Offer: $500 FREE BET – Luxbet (Tabcorp owned)
Special Offer 2: $450 FREE BET – IASbet (Recommended Bookmaker)
Special Offer 3: $500 FREE BET – Sportsbet (Recommended Bookmaker)
Crawford Stakes Handicap Guide
1. WERD – J Noske (6)
No match for the smart Barakey two starts back in the G3 Colonel Reeves (1100m) running second (beaten 3 ¾) before finding the WFA conditions and company of the G1 Winterbottom Stakes to great of a challenge and finishing sixth of nine. He’ll appreciate the drop back to grade and is no stranger to the big weight.
Odds: $4.00
2. TEXAN – D Staeck (7)
Strung three wins together, including the Listed Birthday Stakes (1200m) before, at his most recent start, failing as 9/4 in the Northerly Stakes (1400m) on the 20th October. Barring that effort, his form is first rate for an event such as this and despite the awkward draw will be one of the leading contenders.
Odds: $2.40
3. ACORNS – W Pike (2)
Well travelled 7yo who now calls home the stables of Sean Casey for which he has had the one run. That was a two length, fourth of seven behind Excelorada in a BM 80 at Ascot a fortnight ago. That was only his second start since May of this year so expect some further improvement and drops 3kgs on last run.
Odds: $7.00
4. BLACKSMITH – P Carbery (3)
Has certainly been around the money in seven starts this preparation with four placings but – and frustratingly for connections, no wins. Led all bar the final stages last start when third (beaten ½ length) behind Excelorada. Drawn to be the leader again but does meet Excelorada worse at the weights and does find it hard to win.
Odds: $11.00
5. Excelorada – S Parnham (4)
A 5yo by Exceed and Excel who is building the impressive career record of eight wins from sixteen starts including his most recent outing at Ascot, a fortnight ago. Meets those that he beat last start, Blacksmith and Acorns better at the weights today and has drawn the gun-alley in gate four. Will be very hard to beat.
Odds: $4.40
6. HIGHLY TOXIC – (8)
He won’t know himself with today’s weight of 54kgs given that in his last three starts he has had to carry 61kgs, 59kgs and 57kgs. Finished within two and half lengths of Excelorada two starts back (meets him 2kgs better today) but last week’s ninth of ten behind Waterman’s Bay is a concern. Don’t know if the weight relief will be enough to convince me he can turn it around.
Odds: $1.00
7. MEGEM’S BOY – R Hill (5)
Another who will welcome significant weight relief when compared to his recent outings. Finished last of seven behind Excelorada last start (beaten 2 ¼ lengths) but despite his weight drop, only meets that winner 1kg better and don’t think that’ll be enough for him to make up last start’s beaten margin.
Odds: $34.00
8. THE ENTOURAGE – C Staples (1)
6yo by Flying Spur who, when third behind Lee Rani three starts back, beat Excelorada home. His two subsequent runs have been a close up effort behind Barakey before an average behind Travinator on the 20th October. Been freshened up since then and normally produces a run fresh. Drawn well and one for the multiples.
Odds: $26.00
SUMMARY
Paying attention to the old saying of “winning form is good form” it should pay to stick with Excelorada and Texan here both of whom have healthy strike-rates. A nice weight drop and a better draw, has me leaning to Excelorada but it’ll be interesting to see the price posted about the smart Texan first up. To round out the trifecta, I’ll be throwing in Werd and for some value, The Entourage who might run a cheeky race from the inside draw.