Moonee Valley will host it’s feature race meeting of the year on Saturday in which we see the running of the WFA championship of Australia and perhaps the world in the way of the Cox Plate.
There are also five other Group races on the day which are the Group 2 Crystal Mile, Drake International Cup, Mitchelton Wines Vase and the Group 3 Eliza Park International Stakes and Telstra Phonewords Stakes.
The rain is forecast to have gone from Melbourne after a lot of rain earlier in the week so it is likely that we will be racing on a Dead track come race time which will provide suitable conditions for all horses.
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Race One: Inglis Banner 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Donelle has been brought down from Sydney by Gai Waterhouse who is notorious for producing early running two year olds. She trialled really well last month and looks a very talented type which shows in the betting with her odds shortening slightly into $2.70.
Big Danger: Good Prince hit the line well in the Debutant Stakes when running second, he has drawn a wide barrier and will have to carry 57kg but on exposed form he is the horse to beat in the race. Currently a $4.20 chance in betting and looks hard to beat.
Roughie:Beau Rada did it tough on his debut run when beaten four lengths but racing wide. He has drawn a much better barrier on Saturday and i think at the odds he is a massive chance in the race and must be kept safe at $26 in betting.
$500 Donelle Free Bet
Race Two: 1print.com.au Hcp 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Freereturn has a very good record over the course and distance and he finds a much easier race on Saturday than he has previously been contesting. He has drawn well in barrier 4 and will get a good run throughout and at $7 he will be very hard to beat in the race.
Big Danger: Vatican won impressively first up this preparation when carrying a big weight and he will have to do it again on Saturday and from a wide barrier although he is racing really well this preparation and in a race with not many winning chances he looks the biggest danger.
Roughie: Oamaru Princess has shown a lot of early speed this preparation and that will be needed on Saturday in this race. She has a weight allowance on the runners in the market. She hasn’t been beaten far in her last two starts and i think she could be the blowout runner in the race at $21 in betting.
$500 Freereturn Free Bet
Race Three: City Jeep Hcp 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Henwood is a very talented horse and he has drawn a perfect barrier in the race which will definitely help his chances. He has a good record over the course and distance and with what looks to be decent speed in the race he will be able to sit midfield and will be hitting the line strongly late. He is a $5.50 chance in betting and he looks very hard to beat in the race.
Big Danger: Vibrant Rouge is a very consistent galloper who boasts a ton of ability, he has had one start over the course and distance for one win. He is likely to go forward in the race and if he can cross over early and get some cheap sections in front i think he will take a ton of running down at $6.
Roughie: It Is Written i don’t think ran out the 1400m strongly last start which is why he finished back in the field. The start before that he was impressive in winning at Caulfield beating Richie’s Vibe who is likely to start favourite in the race. He has a very good record over the course and distance and at $15 in betting he looks massive overs.
$500 Henwood Free Bet
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Race Four: Drummond Golf Hcp 2040m Form Guide
Back Me: Hvasstan has been disappointing this preparation although in saying that he probably hasn’t had the best of luck in his races. He again has drawn poorly although this is a much easier race than what he has been contesting lately with the field made up of non winners. He is a $6 chance in betting and i think he can bounce back on Saturday with a win.
Big Danger: Opinion is an imported galloper now with Chris Waller. Waller has been able to get these gallopers to fire first up regularly so i doubt this will be an exception. His international form is good and this isn’t really that good of a race so i think he will be hard to beat and the market suggests that with his odds shortening into $3.30.
Roughie: Phantom Brew will drop 6kg from his run at Caulfield which was very good when carrying the big weight. He has drawn barrier 1 so will get an easy run throughout and being such a consistent horse i doubt we will see him far off the winners if he isn’t the first to past the post so at $18 in betting i think he is a very good each way chance.
$500 Hvasstan Free Bet
Race Five: Mitchelton Wines Vase 2040m Form Guide
Back Me: Drago i thought was very good last start in the Spring Champion Stakes where he finish back in the field. He went out the back and made good ground late. This is an easier race and i think he will likely take a more forward position in the race and from barrier 3 he will have a great run throughout and be strong at the finish so the $5 on offer is looking great value.
Big Danger: Savvy Nature has never run out of the placings from six starts and i doubt that will change on Saturday where he looks the main danger to our on top selection. From the outside barrier he will go back and will be running home well at the end. I am not quite sure there is enough speed in the race for him to win which is why Drago has been put on top at better value.
Roughie: Mantener La Fe was very strong at Caulfield last start when running on the speed. I think being on the speed in this race will be an advantage which he will be and if he doesn’t get much pressure applied he will give a good kick in the straight. Lightly raced and looks a promising stayer.
$500 Drago Free Bet
Race Six: Telstra Phonewords Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Thermal Current is coming out of two very good three year old form races including what i thought was a very solid run in the Golden Rose when finding trouble in the straight and running on nicely when clear. He drops weight slightly from that run and from barrier 1 he wont have to exert any energy and will be finishing strong at very good odds of $7.
Big Danger: Not Listenin’tome will be stepping up in grade here but you cannot fault him on his two career starts having won both of them. He will start as the short priced favourite in the race and he definitely looks a big danger in the race but at the odds he couldn’t be put on top as he doesn’t represent any value.
Roughie: Ruud Awakening came over to Australia at the start of the year with massive raps on her but she really hasn’t delivered. Connections have continued to stick with her which says a lot and i think we will see her show her best on Saturday where she is a $21 chance in betting.
$500 Thermal Current Free Bet
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Race Seven: Drake International Cup 2500m Form Guide
Back Me: Sneak A Peek is yet to win this preparation although this looks the most suitable race for him to do so. He has drawn a little wide but if Luke Nolen can get him into a good position throughout the run i think he will be very hard to beat. He jumped awkwardly last start and was beaten less than a length in a good form race. He is a $3.50 chance in betting and with a little luck i can’t see him getting beaten.
Big Danger: Shoreham had no luck in the Cranbourne Cup last start when being held up in vital points of the race. He drops in weight from his previous few runs which will be a big advantage and his record over the distance is very good having won once and placing once from two tries.
Roughie: Tanby hasn’t shown that much this preparation but he has been ticking along okay, he is a very talented horse and this is a very winnable race for him if he can return to some form. Lloyd Williams runners have been firing lately and i wouldn’t be surprised if Tanby won on Saturday at $13 in betting.
$500 Sneak A Peek Free Bet
Race Eight: Schweppes Crystal Mile 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Sacred Falls was very good last start in the Epsom Handicap where te tempo of the race probably didn’t suit him very well. The form from that race has been franked since and from barrier 3 he will get a very good run throughout. He goes up a little in the weights but the rest of the field will be in the same boat. He is likely to go back mid field and he will be very hard to hold out in a race that looks to have decent speed in it.
Big Danger: Toydini is another runner coming out of the Epsom Handicap which i think is the form race for the Crystal Mile with Boban coming out at Caulfield and blitzing the field with relative ease. He got a long way back in that race and hit the line very well. He goes up in the weights here but i think he will be able to handle it and he looks the horse to beat in the race but will start quite short in the market.
Roughie: Blackie won impressively two starts ago at Moonee Valley before stepping up sharply in grade last start in which he ran a massive race. He has a good record at Moonee Valley which some of the other runners arent exposed to and this stat could be a massive benefit to him on Saturday. Currently an $11 chance in betting and those backing him know he will go close and handles the tight Moonee Valley track.
$500 Sacred Falls Free Bet
Race Nine: Eliza Park International Stks 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Kazanluk had absolutely no luck last start but wasn’t beaten far by Fire Up Fifi and Peron which looks a good form guide for this race. She drops 3.5kg from that run and has drawn a decent barrier which will allow her to easy back midfield and likely get on off the fence with cover and prevent being held up again. She has a good weight allowance on the fancied runners in the market and will be very hard to beat at $9 in betting on a track and distance she has a very good record at.
Big Danger: Lake Sententia missed the jump at Caulfield and made up a stack of ground late in a race she definitely was the eye catching runner. She is unbeaten at the track and from barrier 2 she will have all of the favours throughout the run and with some luck coming around the turn she looks tough to beat.
Roughie: Cameo went to the lead last start in what was a quickly run race and she was able to stick on well to only be beaten just over a length on the line. She will likely get an easier time up front on Saturday and with the drop in the weights from recent runs she will be hard to get past in the straight so the $11 on offer looks great each way value.
$500 Kazanluk Free Bet
Race Ten: Sportingbet Cox Plate 2040m Form Guide
Back Me: Green Moon has been ticking along nicely this preparation and i think he will be almost peaking in the Cox Plate on Saturday where he is at massive odds of $21 in betting. I think they will take a more forward position with him in the race and there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed in the race. He is a very tough horse who will be able to carry the big weight and be very tough to beat in the race. I am envisioning a similar win to what he did in the Newcastle Cup last year.
Big Danger: It’s A Dundeel has had a few set backs this preparation but he is a very good horse with perhaps his best win coming last start when he beat the then unbeaten Atlantic Jewel. He gets in well in the weights in the race when compared to the older horses and from the wide barrier he is likely to cross the field and take a forward position which i think will be an advantage in the race with the tempo looking quite slow.
Roughie: Masked Marvel’s three runs in Australia have all been very good with him getting better and better at each one. He was sent out as a short priced favourite last start and was only just beaten on the line. He has drawn a good barrier and will likely get the run of the race. He will be peaking in the race so at $34 in betting i think he is great value.
$500 Green Moon Free Bet
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Best Bet: Sneak A Peek
Next Best: Kazanluk
Best Roughie: Green Moon
