This really is a Cox Plate for the ages. The well-time preparations of the older gallopers steeling to turn back the tidal wave of support for the three-year-olds, two of them climbing off the mat from a torrid Caulfield Guineas to step into the colluseum of weight-for-age racing at Moonee Valley.
While it’s disappointing the rail is out 3m and not in the “true” position – courtesy of the Manikato Stakes 2012meeting ridiculously run the night before – there is tremendous depth in this year’s field.
So much talk has been around Gai Waterhouse’s decision to choose gate 11 for More Joyous, even before anyone else had a call. Admittedly, More Joyous will be suited away from the fence and allowed to roll from the half mile, but regardless where she drew, I believe she is no chance of winning the race.
Punters on Luxbet are having a field day. First they steamed into the value around three-year-olds Proisir ($11 in to $9.50) and Caulfield Guineas winner All Too Hard ($12.00 into $10.00), then there was significant money for Turnbull winner Green Moon at $5.00, back they came to take the easing $7.00 about Ocean Park, More Joyous was then the big flavour tumbling from $12.00 into $9.00 in the last 24 hours, and now finally they’re queuing up to take as much as $4.40 about Pierro. Scores of bets written since late Thursday night, including one of $10,000.00, and you do get the feeling the star colt will start shorter on the day.
I think Pierro will roll forward from a middle gate and try to slot in trailing the horse sitting outside the leader, likely to be Glass Harmonium if he steps away from the barrier. In fact, Pierro and Green Moon who is drawn two stalls closer in may end up next to each other first time out of the straight.
It’s sure to be truly run, and the questions should be ringing by the half mile, that is why I won’t shirk from Green Moon, a weight-for-age warrior I’ve been supporting for weeks to win this race!
MY ASSESSMENT OF THE BIG 3 RACES AT MOONEE VALLEY (SAT):
GROUP 2 MOONEE VALLEY CUP: Two chances. Even though he had a nice run behind the speed in the Herbert Power, Ironstein is better away from the fence and rolling into the race. The danger is Precedence. He won this race two years back, is well placed under the set weights & penalties, and has an outstanding record at the track. Will drift back and come with one sweeping run. Midas Touch will race on the speed and could be hard to collar, while Moudre, backing up from the Caulfield Cup, is the query.
GROUP 2 CRYSTAL MILE: Rangirangdoo looms as one of the better bets on the card back at weight-for-age. Caught wide all the way in the Epsom, but battled on okay, and is now sensationally placed in small field from a better draw. Toorak winner Solzhenitsy n is flying but rises a whopping 7kg to a track he’s never raced on. Ambidexter is also going well but also can’t beat Rangirangdoo at the weights.
GROUP 1 COX PLATE: Fitter, stronger and with an ideal preparation, Green Moon is the one to deny the three-year-old onslaught. This is only his fourth run in so the dash is still there, and can stalk the speed from a good gate. With any luck, star colt Pierro must be the danger dropping 7kg from the Caulfield Guineas. Kiwi Ocean Park is unbeaten this Spring, still on the fresh side, and should be in the finish, while Guineas winner All Too Hard is ready for the longer trip and must be included carrying no weight. Will be shocked if anything outside these four wins!
Here’a s snap-shot of how I see Super Saturday:
MY COX PLATE TIP: GREEN MOON: Tough stayer who has had a terrific preparation for this, and right at his peak. Drawn to sit behind the speed where he can apply the blowtorch from the 600m. The one to deny the three-three-year-old onslaught!
MY BEST BET: RANGIRANGDOO (Moonee Valley R7): Big effort in the Epsom when caught wide all the way, but the key here is weight-for-age in a small field. Looks beautifully placed over the mile to stalk the speed all the way!
MY BEST VALUE: AERONAUTICAL (Rosehill R6): Flew home from impossible position last start, but can settle closer here and be tucked away in the second half of the field and saved for the last crack. Drops 4.5kg to the limit weight!
MY BEST LAY: I GET AROUND (Moonee Valley R2): Good sprinter who charged through his Winter grades in much weaker company, but is way under the odds here first time around Moonee Valley in open class!
BEST BACKED ON LUXBET: PIERRO (Moonee Valley R8): It’s changing by the hour, but when the star colt got to $4.40 in the Cox Plate, the punters charged in with scores of four and five-figure bets, almost signalling he’ll be shorter by the jump!
NEIL’S ROSEHILL RUMBLER: R5 No. 2 ARINOSA: Betting approx $4.00. Rated $2.65
NEIL’S DOOMBEN DASHER: R7 No. 9 FLYING JET: Betting approx $3.50. Rated $2.50
