Blake Shinn ate into the Jockey Premiership lead of James McDonald with three winners at Wednesday’s Warwick Farm race meeting and with McDonald currently riding overseas, Shinn looks set to close the gap further with a solid book of rides at Rosehill this Saturday. Shinn has rides in seven races including aboard Dothraki in the feature race of the day, the Listed Civic Stakes. Dothraki has been posted the $3.50 favourite for the event in early markets despite the wide draw (13) and top weight of 59.5kgs. Since the turn of the century, only two horses Hadaaf (58kgs in 2009) and Mic Mac (59kgs in 2013) have carried more than 57.5kg to victory.
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1. DOTHRAKI – B Shinn (13) 59.5kgs
Drew wide when resuming in the Listed Ortensia Stakes (1100m) and finished eighth (3.1 lengths) behind That’s A Good Idea and Target In Sight. The Snowden Racing runner was then kept fresh and five weeks later, lined up as the 5/2 favourite for the G3 Tatt’s Stakes (1200m) on the Gold Coast. The 4yo gelding sat on the speed and proved too strong later, turning the tables on Target In Sight by head. Very consistent type who has built for himself a strong record but he’ll need to improve again here with the wide draw and top-weight to contend with.
2. SEE THE WORLD – J Bowman (8)
Back-maker who has made good ground late in each of his three runs this campaign, the most recent of which saw him finish third (two lengths) behind Timeless Prince at Randwick a fortnight ago in Open Company. The Joe Pride 8yo has a good record here at Rosehill and the big field will ensure that the pace will be on from the jump, helping him to reel off a big finish however; he finished seventh in this race in 2013 and has missed a place in each of five attempts at Stakes level since. Would need all things to go his way in the run.
3. DANCES ON STARS – B Avdulla (10) 56kgs
He has been honest in some of the leading races during the Brisbane Winter Carnival, the best of his efforts seeing him run third in the G2 Victory Stakes behind Srikandi. The 5yo’s most recent run saw him finish fourth (4.3 lengths) behind Dothraki in the Tatt’s Stakes where from a midfield position in the turn, he battled on strongly. Meets Dothraki 2.5kgs better this weekend and on his form this campaign, would rate a place-chance.
4. WOULDN’T IT BE NICE – T Huet (8) 56kgs
Perfectly ridden when finishing too well for Avoid Lightning, who carried 6kgs more, when scoring in the Listed June Stakes two starts back before a plain effort as the 6/4 favourite at his following and most recent start, finishing fifth of six (3.6 lengths) to Timeless Prince. Disappointing last time out and that does continue a history of him mixing up his form. On his best efforts, which have generally come on rain-affected tracks, he’d be a chance here but he is a hard galloper to tip with confidence.
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5. RUGGED CROSS – T Angland (15) 55kgs
Won second up this campaign and has placed three of his four runs since – all of which of been in wet tracks. Ran home steadily behind Beauty’s Beast last week, who dominated from the lead position, to run fifth (3.3 lengths) in Open Company. Drops down nicely in weights here and his rock-hard fit however, wide draw will see him in need of luck in the run and required to produce a big finish late.
6. ESTONIAN PRINCESS – J Collett (3) 54kgs
Returned from a spell with an eye-catching second to I’ve Got The Looks in the Listed Gold Coast Bracelet, giving every indication the 4yo mare was set for a big campaign however, in her three runs since then she has been very disappointing and finished well back in the field. Draws well here which should see her get every opportunity in the run and has been more than competitive at this level in the past but appears to have too much to turnaround on her more recent outings.
7. DIAMETRIC – G Schofield (11) 54kgs
We haven’t seen this 6yo gelding since he finished a distance last in the G3 Manion Handicap (2400m) back in March of this year. Only the one win from eight starts since the son of Dansili joined the Waller yard and would think he’d been in need of this run and further ground.
8. HAUSMANN – T Clark (2) 54kgs
Drew wide in the Listed Ortensia Stakes when making his return to racing back in May and struggled to keep in touch with the leaders, running eleventh (8.2 lengths) behind That’s A Good Idea. Better in his only run since when chasing home Mirage, Beauty’s Beat and You’ll Never – all in solid form a the minute, to run fifth (2 lengths). That was his first run in four weeks so expect him to be fitter again but won’t find this any easier than last time out and would have to produce a career-best to win here.
9. ROSE OF CHOICE – J Ford (1) 54kgs
With a couple of impressive trial wins under her belt, the 5yo mare returned from a spell the 11/4 favourite for the G3 Dark Jewel at Scone but let punters down when being caught wide in the run and over-racing before running fifth. She was caught deep again but improved to run fourth (2.3 lengths) behind Hazard in the Dane Ripper Stakes (1350m) and at her following and most recent start, finished well down the track in the G1 Tatt’s Tiara. Hasn’t measured up as expected thus far this campaign but will get every chance to put her best foot forward here from the inside gate.
10. TWO BLUE – W Costin (14) 54kgs
The honest 6yo mare has improved with each of his three runs back this campaign, culminating in an all-the-way win at Rosehill last weekend in a BM 85 (1200m). Had favourable conditions last weekend, wet track/leader’s bias, but was good enough to hold off the challenges in a big field. Will have to commit from the jump and his wide gate if he’d like to take up a similar position here in a field of far greater depth but he is as honest as they come.
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11. ROYAL ISLAND – D Holland (7) 54kgs
Returned from a lengthy spell with an unexpected win in the Listed Wangoom at Warrnambool back in May before, a month later at Moonee Valley, recording an honest fifth (1.1 lengths) under 60kgs in a BM 90 behind Our Nkwazi. Going well, drops down to 54kgs, the same weight as assigned to the 5yo in the Wangoom, and boasts impressive records on ground with the sting out. Has to be given his chance here.
12. SAID COM – K O’Hara (6) 54kgs
The Chris Waller 6yo hasn’t raced since November of last year and will be looking for his first win in two years. A great deal hasn’t been asked of him in two trials over the past month and whilst that was a similar story prior to the commencement of last campaign, where he finished solidly to run fourth this track and trip, this event is of much stronger quality and combined with his poor strike, makes him an outside chance at best.
13. MEDCAUT – C Reith (4) 54kgs (1st EM)
Returned from a spell with an impressive win followed by a close up third to Rugged Cross in a blanket finish but after two poor subsequent runs, which saw him finished well out of the placings as a leading chance according to the markets, the Godolphin runner was given a freshen up. Draws perfectly here and whilst he hasn’t raced in six weeks, he’s been kept up to the mark with two trials. Can bounce back here on previous efforts and represents a good chance at value.
14. TURBULENT JET – D Beasley (5) 54kgs (2nd EM)
The Jet Spur 5yo has finished strongly in each of his two runs back from a spell, finishing second to impressive winner Alberto Magic (2.3 lengths) and Aussie Loves Sport (Nose), respectively. Takes on Stakes grade for the first time but both recent runs suggests he’s in the right kind of form to have a crack at this race. Will be charging late and not without a place hope at a big price.
15. REFER – T Clark (12) 54kgs (3rd EM)
She hasn’t been far off the money in some of the leading fillies and mare’s races over the past few months including a half-length fourth in the Listed Gai Waterhouse Classic behind Real Surreal. Should the well-bred mare by Fastnet Rock gain a start as third emergency, despite some recent handy performances, the combination of a poor strike rate and an awkward draw would have others in the race as preferred options.
RACE OVERVIEW –
Dothraki and Two Blue will push forward from their wider gates with Estonian Princess, Rose Of Choice and Royal Island all keen to take up handy positions from more favourable draws. Keep coming back to the top-weight but must admit to some concerns with the 59.5kg over 1350m. He hasn’t raced beyond 1200m since his 3yo days. Rose Of Choice gets every chance – but needs firm ground, whilst wouldn’t mind seeing Medcaut, the first emergency, a start given his previous efforts this campaign and the fact that he maps well.
1. ROSE OF CHOICE
4. TWO BLUE