Christmas Stakes 2013 – Tips

Early markets suggest it is a wide open affair with Loveyamadly holding favouritism at $4.50, just in advance of Don’t Get Excited at $4.80. Well in contention also are Richie’s Vibe, a Stakes winner over the Spring Carnival and Adelaide’s representative, Karacatis, both at $6.00. Former promising juvenile Chase the Rainbow returns off a long lay-off and whilst connections may be down-hearted about his poor draw, the should note that Steve Arnold, who will steer the 5yo this weekend, won this race on Here De Angels back in 2009 when jumping from gate 11 and also carrying top-weight.

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Christmas Stakes Form Guide

1. CHASE THE RAINBOW – S Arnold (11) 58kgs

Returning of an enforced lay-off of fifteen months, this now 5yo will create plenty of interest. He showed plenty of promise as a 3yo and claimed the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m) as one of his three wins from his first five starts. He has been prepped for his return with two barrier trials, the latest of which was an impressive 2 ¾ length win at Cranbourne just on a month ago. Looked very good winning the trial and despite the big weight and wider gate first up, would not dismiss his chances.

Loveyamadly winning the City of Glen Eira Handicap at Caulfield - photo by Race Horse Photos Australia (Steven Dowden)
Loveyamadly winning the City of Glen Eira Handicap at Caulfield – photo by Race Horse Photos Australia (Steven Dowden)

 

2. IT IS WRITTEN – M Allen (8) 58kgs

The 5yo Robbie Griffiths trained runner won the Listed Testa Rossa this track/trip, third up from a spell back in September. Is three runs since that win, in Listed, Open and Group 3 company, have seen him well accounted for with his most recent outing being a ninth (5.3 lengths) behind Lankan Rupee in the Kevin Heffernan Stakes (1200m). That run was almost seven weeks ago now and whilst he does perform well fresh, would have to run some smart sprinters down from his wide gate.

 

3. RICHIE’S VIBE – D Oliver (7) 57kgs

After an unlucky second in the Listed Testa Rossa Stakes when second to It Is Written, the Tony Vasil trained runner started favourite in his next two starts – the Listed Weekend Hussler and an Open class race at Moonee Valley. Unfortunately for punters he ran fourth and fifth respectively but rewarded those who stuck with him by winning the Listed Mss Security Stakes (1200m) on the last day of the VRC Carnival. He was back to his old tricks at his next and most recent start though, again letting punters down when, as the 5/2 favourite, he ran fourth (2.4 lengths) in the G3 Sandown Stakes (1400m). As his record suggests, he can be hard to catch but is never far away.

 

4. ZEDI KNIGHT – C Symons (9) 57kgs

The old boy returned to racing as a 9yo off a twenty-one week spell in the Listed Doveton Stakes (1000m) just shy of three weeks ago. Starting at 25/1, the son of Zedative sat on the speed and stuck on well for a fourth placing behind Vatican and Loveyamadly. Will cut across again to lead or help establish the pace but can’t see him holding off the challenges late. He ran last in this race last year after winning it in 2011 at 15/1.

 

5. KARACATIS – D Lane (2) 56.5kgs

An Adelaide galloper that came across to Victoria earlier this year and tried his luck in two races over the VRC Spring Carnival. The Richard Jolly trained son of Hussonet ran a credible fourth in the G2 Yellowglen Stakes (1200m) behind Fontelina and Spirit of Boom before, a week later on the Stakes Day, he had a lovely run just off the pace but battled late when seventh behind Longport in Open company. That run was seven weeks ago now and he supports a very strong record racing fresh. Coupled with his good draw here and effort in G2 company two starts back, he’ll be a contender.

 

6. LOVEYAMADLY – D Smith (10) 56.5kgs

An eighth month break and no public trials didn’t deter punters making this Mick Price trained mare the 11/4 favourite when she resumed in the Doveton Stakes (1000m) three weeks ago. The daughter of Bel Esprit sat in the box seat and half-way up the straight, looked set to do the right thing by her supports but in the end, was unable to run down Vatican, running second by 1 ¾ lengths. Hasn’t missed a place in four starts this track, two in Stakes graded races, and will strip fitter again for having had her first run back. Draw is an awkward one.

 

7. REPARATIONS – D Moor (4) 55kgs

Exceed and Excel gelding returns from a twenty week spell for trainer Anthony Freedman. He kicked off last prep with a sixth placing (1 ¼ lengths) in a Cranbourne Maiden (1200m) before progressing his way to Open grade win, defeating Veewap here at Caulfield over 1400m. He has drawn well here but likely to need this run and a slightly longer trip.

 

8. DON’T GET EXCITED – G Boss (12) 54kgs

Kicked off this campaign back in July by winning four on the trot and his form saw him progress to better class of races. The Elvstroem gelding finished fifth (1.4 lengths) in the Listed Tavern Stakes as the 5/2 favourite behind Molto Bene early in October before a break of several weeks and returning two and a half weeks ago with head win in a RST 84 race at this track and trip. Had to carry 60kgs last start and fought hard late to register the win. Expect him to be much better for the hit-out and is well weighted here. Drawn the outside gate but is a winner of seven of his fourteen starts and couldn’t rule out on that factor alone.

 

9. ESSAY RAIDER – SCRATCHED

 

10. MORANT – B Higgins (5) 54kgs

This time last year, the Fusaichi Pegasus gelding was right in the think of several smart races and rounded out his campaign by running second to Mahisara in the G3 Sandown Stakes. After a brief and poor campaign earlier this year, the Danny Williams trained runner has shown signs at his two recent outings, that he may be nearing a return to his old form. A solid finishing effort saw him run fourth (1 ¾ lengths) behind Flamberge (BM 80) before again making good ground late, when second (¾ lengths) behind Decircles at Flemington in Open company a fortnight ago. Will appreciate the solid tempo they’ll set in this race and, provided that those getting back in the races are running on, he could be the value runner of the race at $12.00.

 

11. KNEELING – V Duric (1)

The well bred daughter by Encosta De Lago returns to racing for Peter Moody after a break of eighteen weeks. The winner of only three of her twenty starts, she has performed well in some quality races such as the W. W. Cockram Stakes earlier this year when finishing 1 ½ lengths behind Octavia and A Time For Julia. First up and from the inside gate though, would be happy to risk her here.

 

12. SOLSAY – D Yendall (6) 54kgs

Former WA galloper who at the beginning of this year joined the Mick Kent stables. He returned off a spell to record his first win for Kent in a RST 78 race at Moonee Valley and back that effort up, at his most recent start just over a fortnight ago, with a head second to Don’t Get Excited in a RST 84 race. Only drops 2.5kgs on that run and doubt that will be enough to counter the rise in grade he faces here.

 

RACE OVERVIEW

Zedi Knight will go forward and just might provide the ideal lead for Loveyamadly who is drawn in his immediate outside. Loveyamadly was well supported first up and looked set to score but a combination of condition and weight (carried 58.5kgs) told on her late. She’s better placed here in regards to both of those factors and should figure prominently. Karacatis’ effort in the Yellowglen Stakes, a Group 2 race, has him well placed here. Can forgive him his effort behind Longport last start – it was his first over seven furlongs. Freshened up and back to a truly run 1200m race from a good draw, should see him get his chance. Has finished in the top two eleven of his sixteen starts. Can’t leave Richie’s Vibe out – can’t have him with any great confidence either – lost his last three when starting favourite. On his best, he’ll make the $6.00 on offer for him look a good bet. Outside gate is a concern for Chase the Rainbow. Being first up off such a long break, just wonder how hard they’ll go with him from the gate and therefore, think he’ll give them too much start. Morant the value for exotics.

 

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  1. LOVEYAMADLY
  2. KARACATIS
  3. RICHIE’S VIBE
  4. MORANT
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