Flemington will host Saturday racing in Melbourne this Saturday with a strong eight race program, headlined by the $120,000 Listed Chester Manifold Stakes (1400m).
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Race One: Better Beyond Plate 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a good race for the Team Hawkes runner Bugatty (Best Odds: $2.30), who attempted to lead all the way at the Valley on debut a couple of weeks back, and did look the winner, only to be grabbed in the final few strides by a good one in Chivalry. Doesn’t appear to be much depth here, should ping the barriers, lead, and win if he brings that form.
Big Danger: Ducal Castle (Best Odds: $3.50) is very safe in betting here for Moody despite no public appearances. The booking of Brad Rawiller is a positive lead for me, and he doesn’t have to be a star to beat these.
Roughie: Lotion (Best Odds: $7.50) seemingly had his chance on debut at Morphettville, but the two that beat him home look pretty smart I think, so don’t underestimate the form line.
$250 Bugatty Free Bet
Race Two: Nouvelle Star Handicap (70) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Inexperience beat It’s One (Best Odds: $4.40) at Caulfield. She was heavily backed in betting and after having a sweet run off the pace, she peeled three wide on the turn and looked the winner, but she just wanted to wander about in the straight and lost concentration, which allowed our big danger to swoop in time to win. I think with a more conservative ride, and having something to chase, she’ll prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: So Hasty (Best Odds: $3.50) spanked her rivals at Werribee, then aided by a brilliant Rawiller ride, she pounced on It’s One to win at Caulfield. She gets the weight pull despite beating home It’s One, and does draw barrier one. Massive threat.
Roughie: Mamwaazel (Best Odds: $4.20) is another of these Chris Waller gallopers who have been sent down to Melbourne from Sydney in pretty good form. Pace was against her last start, but she still hit the line strongly in a close finish. Beautifully in at the weights after the claim, drawn well, definite chance.
$250 It’s One Free Bet
Race Three: Jezabeel Handicap (84) 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: In a very ordinary mares race, you just stick with the form runner, and that is clearly Reckless Assassin (Best Odds: $2.70). Olly has produced two crackers to get her home at her last two at the 2040m of the Valley, and in tougher races than what she faces here. Going away from the Valley is a slight concern, but she is trained on the track.
Big Danger: First Bloom (Best Odds: $9.00) was a surprising but an impressive winner on Ballarat Cup Day, beating home a subsequent city winner in Big Memory, then was good under the big weight behind Kiss Me Ketut before having no luck at Caulfield behind Flying Hostess, where she got checked and hampered before the turn. She gets out to her ideal distance now, and on a bigger track, she could easily improve.
Roughie: Coming back to 2000m will suit Chateau Latour (Best Odds: $15.00), who was okay at the 2500m last start, but never looked a winning chance. Back to this distance now, on her home track, and young Oisin Murphy is riding in sparkling form.
$250 Reckless Assassin Free Bet
Race Four: Straight Draw Handicap (78) 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the card for me in Nesbo (Best Odds: $6.00), who was a tragedy beaten first up behind Under The Leaner at Caulfield. He got a long way back, hooked wider than Veandercross on the turn and absolutely savaged the line for third. He then went for the easy kill at Sale, and spanked his rivals there. Drops 3.5kg on his last run and strikes a very winnable race for mine.
Big Danger: As we keep saying, once Edgewood (Best Odds: $7.00) puts it all together in his head, gee he is going to be a good horse. But for some reason, he just wants to miss the kick all the time and settle out the back. He really savaged the line late when fourth to Sistine Demon over 1200m, then again missed the kick and never got into the race behind Murcielaga. Up to 1700m, and a wide barrier, will assist his cause.
Roughie: Adirondack (Best Odds: $6.00) was excellent over the 1400m here last start when settling midfield in a very slowly run race, yet made up good ground late for third to Gracious Prospect, who goes around in the Magic Millions Guineas later on in the day. Up to 1700m and a rails draw gives him a great chance.
$250 Nesbo Free Bet
Race Five: Rain Lover Handicap 2500m Form Guide
Back Me: Great each way bet for me in Angelology (Best Odds: $9.50). Really caught the eye with his second when first up at Caulfield, then probably should have finished a touch closer when second to Index Linked, before battling away strongly for fourth to Gottino, who he meets much better at the weights.
Big Danger: Instrumentalist (Best Odds: $6.00) was given an Olly special to get the job done at this track/distance last start, carrying 60kg. He is a real tough and gritty import for Chris Waller who never runs a bad race, and with Bossy on board now, and dropping in weight, he’ll be awfully hard to beat.
Roughie: Reigning (Best Odds: $13.00) produced three very good runs back from a spell against strong opposition, then had a mishap in the mounting yard prior to running last start at Canterbury, then he didn’t have much luck in the run, but at the same time raced a touch flat, so I like the move to send him to Melbourne. Different environment, new surroundings…might spark him up a bit, as will a bigger track and 2500m.
$250 Angelology Free Bet
Race Six: Chester Manifold Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Anlon (Best Odds: $4.00) looks the clear top pick. He was a tragedy beaten here two back behind Free Of Doubt. He got absolutely flattened as soon as the gates opened and lost all chance. For him to pick up and hit the line better than anything was enormous. He then got the breaks last start and won most impressively. With normal luck, and to be saved for the final 250m by Yendall like he did last start, he’ll be hard to hold off.
Big Danger: Limes (Best Odds: $4.00) loomed to win the Villiers last week, but just couldn’t quite get past Ninth Legion in a thrilling finish. He then dropped back to benchmark level and was much too good at Rosehill. Has raced quite well here in the past and does have a touch of class on his side.
Roughie: Gig (Best Odds: $15.00) hasn’t done much wrong this time in, in particular a couple of Saturdays back at Flemington where she worked home well when third to an in form mare in Sistine Demon, then was rewarded for her consistency with a top win over this track/distance on New Years Day. Rises in grade, but she loves Flemington and is drawn well.
$250 Free Of Doubt Free Bet
Race Seven: Comedy King Handicap 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: I don’t think this Open Handicap will last too long in the memory bank. I actually didn’t mind the first up run of Eraset (Best Odds: $10.00) here mid last month behind The Peak, a chance in the previous race. He saves his best for Flemington, rider is in form, runs well second up. Only query is that it’s been a long time since he has greeted the judge.
Big Danger: Free Of Doubt (Best Odds: $5.50) battled away very strongly I thought last week at Caulfield, where he sat on the speed, kicked for home, looked the winner, only to be grabbed late by a tough customer in Pillar Of Creation. Drops 4.5kg from that outing, I like the fact he is on the seven day back up, and maps very well.
Roughie: Amaethon (Best Odds: $5.50) gets her chance to produce a win here. She finished second in that race won by The Peak after getting a soft run on the pace. She then raced on New Years Day and looked the winner 300m out, only to be caught late by two good horses in Anlon and He’s Your Man. Either leads or sits outside Free Of Doubt. Either way, hard to beat.
$250 Eraset Free Bet
Race Eight: Tauto Handicap (78) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Tough race, so again looking for value and am putting Taddei Tondo (Best Odds: $13.00) on top. Forget he went around here first up behind Kaiser Sun (won since), then returned to some form with an excellent second from well back at Mornington. Noticed he was scratched from an easier race at Geelong during the week in favour of this, so the stable must have a bit of confidence. $12 will do me fine.
Big Danger: Fight To The Line (Best Odds: $6.00) put together two good wins from as many runs this prep, then was pressured in front last start and was swallowed up late. Looks well placed back in this grade.
Roughie: Clairvaux (Best Odds: $13.00) was an excellent winner at his home track of Warrnambool late last month in a nice little benchmark race there. I like the fact that the stable has sent him to town instead of looking for more races in the country, indicating they might have an opinion on this gelding.
$250 Taddei Tondo Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Four Number 5 Nesbo (Best Odds: $6.00)
Next Best: Race Six Number 8 Anlon (Best Odds: $4.00)
Best Roughie: Race Five Number 6 Angelology (Best Odds: $9.50)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12
Leg Two: 4, 5, 8, 10, 11
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6, 8
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 7
$50 Investment = 8.33% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
