Caulfield Guineas Tips, Odds and Field Preview – 2016

Saracino
Caulfield Guineas Tips, Odds and Field Preview – 2016

The Caulfield Guineas brings together some of Australasia’s top three-year-old colts and geldings. The race, run over 1600m at Caulfield supplies a good platform for the Victoria Derby and possibly the Cox Plate.

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Caulfield Guineas Field Preview

 

SACRED ELIXIR – Odds ($7.50)

This class Kiwi three-year-old is $4.50 favourite for the Victoria Derby.

 Why he can: Won Group 1 Jim Atkins (1600m) as a two-year-old. Resumed from a spell with impressive win in Guineas Prelude (1400m), won at the distance, fitter and plenty of ability.

Why he can’t: He is meeting tougher opposition and top Sydney three-year-olds. Chances may decrease if track is heavy.

 

GOOD STANDING – Odds ($8.00)

James Cummings prepares this three-year-old colt, rated $13 for the VRC Derby.

Why he can: Robust colt and he will strip fitter here following three runs from a break. Latest he worked early and fought on well for third to Impending.

Why he can’t: He may be more an autumn three-year-old. He has been honest this prep’ but is just below top grade at this stage and barrier 11 will make his task tougher.

 

DIVINE PROPHET – Odds ($4.80)

A Choisir colt trained by “Team Hawkes.”

Why he can: Racing well this preparation and coming off a game second to Impending in the Stan Fox Stakes (1500m). Has the rails draw, which will ensure he gets a nice position.

Why he can’t: He enjoyed the run of the race last start and could not hold out Impending. He may find the 1600m too far.

 

IMPENDING – Odds ($4.00)

From the in-form Godolphin yard.

Why he can: Has made gradual improvement this preparation and is maturing with every run. He followed Golden Rose third with a fast finishing win in Stan Fox Stakes (1500m). Settled well and the 1600m should be to his liking.

Why he can’t: Appears to be learning to race as he goes and having first go around Caulfield, which has brought some good horses undone.

 

HEY DOC – Odds ($9.00)

Why he can: Won last three starts and hit career best form with win in Stutt Stakes (1600m) last start, when he had them covered on the home turn and won by 1.5 lengths.

Why he can’t: Barrier 13 will be tough to overcome. He had the run of the race last start, but may have to work harder here against stronger opposition.

 

SEABURGE – Odds ($15)

This Sebring colt won the VRC Sires produce Stakes in March.

Why he can: Came from well back with a sustained wide run, from the 600m, in the Prelude. He battled on strongly for fourth and with a better run he would have been in the placings.

Why he can’t: Will again have to go back in the field from a wide gate. Not sure he will be as string at the end of 1600m.

 

SARACINO – Odds ($13)

He is Group 2 winner in New Zealand and also here.

Why he can: Followed Flemington win with fifth to Sacred Elixir in the Prelude. He was tight for room, at a vital stage in the straight, but will be improved by the run and out to 1600m looks made to order.

Why he can’t: Hard to find reasons, but he is yet to win on a good track.

 

REVOLVING DOOR – Odds ($26)

Singapore based jockey Corey Brown to ride.

Why he can: Had a change of tactics last start when ridden forward. Almost paid off, but just nailed, by Sacred Elixir, in the Guineas Prelude.

Why he can’t:  Just lacks the class and ability of the top level three-year-olds and 1600m will test.

 

WAZZENME – Odds ($26)

This well named colt, by Wanted, is trained on the track by Stuart Webb.

Why he can: Been placed two of last three starts. He turned in an eye-catching run when he came from near the rear of the field for third to Sacred Elixir in the Prelude (1400m). He is rock hard fit and gives every indication that he will be suited at 1600m.

Why he can’t: His only win is a Bendigo Maiden and he just lacks the class of some of these.

 

EVACUATION – Odds ($9.00)

More Than Ready colt prepared by Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott.

Why he can: His last start was much better than it reads on paper. He was three deep throughout and then pushed even wider on the home turn. He wound up seventh to Sacred Elixir, but did not shirk the task at any stage and did well to finish as close as he did.

Why he can’t: With just three career starts he lacks the race experience of his rivals.

 

LAND OF PLENTY – Odds ($34)

This Stratum three-year-old is having first preparation.

Why he can: Won his Maiden last month and far from disgraced in higher grade since. Two runs over 1600m have been solid and last start ran on strongly for second to Hey Doc in the Stutt Stakes.

Why he can’t: Jumps from outside barrier and will get too far back. Promising, but will probably come next preparation.

 

KACHING – Odds ($26)

So You Think colt that has been in the money at his four career starts. He is $9.00 second favourite for the VRC Derby

Why he can: Placed last two starts behind Harlow Gold and Hey Doc, respectively. Had wide barrier in both of those races and was a long way out of his ground, but finished the races off strongly.

Why he can’t: Tracked Hey Doc into the race last start and could not make any ground on the Stutt Stakes winner. Tough to see him turning the tables and he is probably looking for longer than 1600m.

 

SO SI BON – Odds ($51)

Colt having his fifth race start here for Robbie Griffiths.

Why he can: He ran a super race last start when sixth to Sacred Elixir in the Prelude. He was second last early and weaved a passage late. He will have taken a lot of improvement and looks over the odds at $51.

Why he can’t: He broke his Maiden two starts back and faces a huge class rise here.

 

BARBIE’S BOY – Odds ($101)

Choisir gelding, trained at Cranbourne by Louise Bonella.

Why he can: Tough to make a case for him wining this.

Why he can’t: Outclassed after defeat in Benchmark 64 at his last outing.

 

Best Bet

  1. Saracino
  2. Impending
  3. Evacuation

Value Tip

  1. Sacred Elixir
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