Mike Moroney concedes Tulsa will need a fast-run Caulfield Guineas to win the $1 million race.
Tulsa has been in eye-catching form without winning but emerged as a true Guineas prospect when a close second to Bon Aurum in the Prelude.
Unless the emergency Mr Individual earns a call-up, Tulsa will jump from the outside gate in a field of 16 for the third successive start in the Group One race.
“It’s probably not the ideal draw but in saying that he’s had a bit of practice from there now,” Moroney said.
“And one thing about it, we’ve found he can race back off the speed.”
The trainer is hoping for a genuine tempo.
“If they trot and canter around and sprint home he probably can’t win. But if they go at a true rate he’s a chance at running over the top of them because he has to go back from that draw,” Moroney said.
“We think that his two runs against the better three-year-olds have been very good and he’s definitely got to be one of the main chances on natural talent.”
While Tulsa is a naturally gifted racehorse, Moroney says the son of Sebring still has improvement to come both physically and mentally and expects him to be better next preparation.
“He did a few things wrong last start and I think if he raced straight he would have won,” Moroney said.
“He just wanted to lay in and gave Ben (Melham) a bit of a difficult ride when he did get to the outside.”
Tulsa is at $13 for the Guineas with Group One-winning colt Press Statement the $2.30 favourite ahead of Ready For Victory at $7.
Moroney rates Press Statement the horse to beat, along with Bon Aurum.
He also has Alaskan Rose in the Thousand Guineas for fillies and hasn’t lost faith after her unplaced run in the Prelude, insisting the run should be forgotten.
“It would be no surprise to see her win it,” he said.