Carlyon Stakes (Listed), Race 7, 1000m

Racecourse

Moonee Valley, Melbourne

History

Heatherly won this race last year but was the first leader to do so in the last five years and notably she sat off the track in doing so.

She was the first favourite in that time to win and is looking to be the second repeat winner after Brokenwon in 2012/13.

Race Pace

It’s doubtful Heatherly can lead this race with Jungle Edge, Prussian Vixen and Sunday Escape likely to cross her.

Leading chances 

Heatherly ($2.25)

Treated well under the conditions of the race, meeting all runners better at the weights than she would under handicap conditions.

Barrier 2 is no favour to this mare.

Jockey Damian Lane is going to either have to use her early to lead or position leaders back on the fence which isn’t ideal at the track and distance with the rail true.

She rated several lengths below her best in her Autumn preparation after returning from a bleeding attack.

She should win and has been bet down from around 3.30 to 2.30.

El Divino ($8.50)

At his best, he has ratings to be right in this race.

However, he’s winless in his last seven after winning his first two career starts.

Only fair odds to find out if he can turn his form around.

Missrock ($7.00)

She went to a big new career peak in the Goodwood at her final run last prep when she was kept to the sprint distances.

Likely to be two to three pairs back on the outside ready to swoop if the pace suits.

With strong stamina and a likely strong pace to sit just off she can win the race.

Speedeor ($5.50)

Lightly raced horse with the scope to lift in ratings from his current position as the lowest ranked horse going into the race.

Still very hard to see how he beats the two mares giving them weight, more-so as his PB last Spring was in a race to suit plus a strong bias.

Likely to start much longer than the early quotes.

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Bets

I expect the mares to fight this race out but even they have their queries.

At the prices, I’m happy to lean towards Missrock each way.