Good collection of 3yo’s assembled for the running of the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes, headed up by last start winner Toydini who is the $2.90 favourite. Unlike some other races on today’s card though, he doesn’t completely dominate the market with Tatra ($6.50), Lunar Rise ($9.00), Ninth Legion ($6.50) and Flying Snitzel ($4.00) all given genuine chances.
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1. TATRA – (7)
Didn’t handle the heavy conditions when first up in the G2 Hobartville Stakes but on drier surfaces, has finished third in both the G1 Randwick and Rosehill Guineas behind It’s A Dundeel. Fourth up last prep ran second to Lunar Rise in the Victorian version of this race. Awkward draw here means he may have to work a little if he wishes to, as he regularly does, settle handy to the speed.
2. TOYDINI – B Shinn (9)
Recorded only his second win from eleven starts but did so with authority in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes (1500m). He settled mid-field and continued to build into his work in the straight before really running away with it late to win by 2 1/4. Mile looks ideal, barrier is not but will get back anyway.
3. LUNAR RISE – J Bowman (6)
Winner of the Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day who resumed with an average tenth of eleven in the CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) behind Sheer Talent before, being taken to Kembla Grange a month later where he finished ¾ fourth behind Fedde, Upshot and Soledad over 1300m.Better for that run and the step up to the mile is also a positive. Expect a significant improvement.
4. PROVERB – (4)
Put together a very solid campaign last spring that saw the son of Commands win the Listed Dulcify Quality (1900m) and place in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes and G2 Sandown Guineas. Not sure if things have gone his way in three runs this time in. After kicking off the campaign on a heavy track in the Hobartville Stakes, he got too far back in the G1 Randwick Guineas and, as 13/8 favourite, missed a runs at crucial stages when seventh (beaten 5 ½ lengths) in the G2 Tulloch Stakes. Capable of bouncing back.
5. FLYING SNITZEL – C Williams (2)
Produced an outstanding effort two starts back to win the G2 Kewney Stakes at Flemington, defeating Norzita before getting back again, before closing well enough for 3 ¾ length eighth behind Appearance (since won again) in the G1 Coolmore Classic. Last start probably not run to suit but previous runs over the mile have been only fair. Think I’d risk her at the $4.00
6. NINTH LEGION – J McDonald (1)
Son of Fastnet Rock who was just behind the place-getters in some of the feature 3yo races during the spring and has been consistent again this time in, winning a BM 82 (1400m) three starts back and holding on well for second last start behind Toydini in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes (1500m). Will probably lead from gate one but just needs to find an extra length or two this grade to hold the challengers off.
7. HONORIUS – J Collett (10)
Placed third in the G1 Spring Champion and second in the G3 Norman Robinson last Spring but in three runs back for Trainer David Payne this campaign, we haven’t seen anything close to those efforts. In fact he has finished last at his most recent outings – G2 Hobartville Stakes and Phar Lap Stakes.
8. BRADMAN – T Berry (5)
David Hayes trained gelding who, when resuming this preparation, won a Ballarat RST 68 event (1400m) and backed that up with, as a 50/1 pop, a win in the Bendigo Guineas accounting for Ninth Legion. Didn’t have much luck at his last at Caulfield where, despite finishing tenth, was only 2 ¼ lengths from the winner. Appears to be going well but this is a step up again.
9. HAWKSPUR – C Brown (3)
Was proving a nightmare horse for punters but toward the end of his last prep, started to redeem himself but stringing three wins together in races over 1800m – 1900m. Resumed with a good effort over 1400m when 2.7 lengths behind Keith’s Legacy in a BM 85. Better for that run but a race such as this second up, fancy he’ll need it a touch longer and easier.
10. DIAMOND COSTA – P Robl (8)
Anthony Cummings trains this Encosta de Lago colt who, judging by his recent seventh of eight at Canberra, seventh of ten at Canterbury and sixth of ten at Randwick in graded company, will struggle here.
OVERVIEW
Really liked the last 100m of Toydini’s win last start and think the mile at Randwick is tailor made for him and. Expect a better effort from Proverb here who grabs the attention at $13.00. Think he’ gets in the right race for this first time this prep – a mile, drier surface, right grade.