The Autumn carnival will get its first taste of Flemington this Saturday, headlined by the $500,000 Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m), with Moir Stakes winner Samaready the popular pick in betting to kick off her Autumn with a win. Snitzerland is on the second line of betting while the race will create plenty of intrigue with a couple of juveniles, Boomwaa and Bugatty, set to take their place. The last time a two year old contested the race was Clever Zoe in 1993, who ran second to one of the all time great sprinters, Schillaci.
Race One (12:35) : Talindert Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Ducal Castle has plenty to learn, but has plenty of ability. Inexperience probably cost him on debut here behind Bugatty, then closed off really nicely in the Blue Diamond Preview behind Mohave, with again inexperience coming to the fore. Once he learns what this game is all about, he’ll develop into a good horse.
Big Danger: Betcher trialled really nicely at Cranbourne, and ran pretty good time hence why she is the favourite. Field isn’t overly strong, so you have to respect his chances.
Roughie: Lady Sharpova is a beautifully bred filly on debut for Team Hawkes off the back of a pleasing trial placing at Rosehill. Stable has sent it down South, and they have a very good record when they go interstate.
$250 Ducal Castle Free Bet
Race Two (13:10) : Hilton Nicholas Handicap 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Val Mondo has built up plenty of confidence in Adelaide, winning his past three at Morphettville quite comfortably and impressively. He has earned himself another crack in Melbourne, and given he is absolutely flying, and the fact he strikes a thin race, he goes on top for me.
Big Danger: Extra Zero is a very consistent old timer who always is around the money in these type of races. Had the charmed run last time out and battled on well for third at Caulfield behind Prince Of Penzance. Drops big time in depth here, but is a query at running a strong 2000m. Class may get him home.
Roughie: Zabeelzebub ran really well last time out at Caulfield, getting a long way back before working home solidly late. That was over the mile, so given that run, and his breeding, 2000m looks ideal. Wouldn’t be shocked if he greeted the judge.
$250 Val Mondo Free Bet
Race Three (13:45) : Indian Summer Handicap (84) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Five All can do no wrong this prep, winning three and placing another three from six runs. Loved the way she toughed it out at Caulfield last time out, where she probably got to the front a touch early and was left a sitting shot, so I think there was plenty of merit in that performance. Rises significantly in weight, but the senior rider in Brad Rawiller gets on board now, drawn the paint and he’ll know when to push the button.
Big Danger: Means A Lot is a stablemate of the top tip and she herself was a top winner last time out, bursting into the clear late in the piece and getting up to salute. That was only her second run back from a four month break, so expect more improvement from that outing.
Roughie: First Print has run a couple of cracking races at Caulfield recently, firstly behind Means A Lot then was gunned down late in the piece by a future stakes winner in Princess Deauville. Drawn to get the gun run off the pace and gets the pull in the weights. Hard to beat.
$250 Five All Free Bet
Race Four (14:25) : Lawn Handicap (90) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: About Square was good first up over this track/distance behind Salute To Jude, then worked home well late again over the similar trip before recording a well deserved win in the Sale Quality, beating home a handy horse in Solsay, who would nearly go around favourite here. Loves the Flemington straight six, Bossy sticks, looks the one.
Big Danger: Despite the amount of racing he has had, King Buddy is yet to run at Flemington, so it’ll be interesting to see how he performs and how he handles it. Given there is plenty of speed in the race, his racing pattern of getting back and running on should come to the fore.
Roughie: Mandla put together two highly impressive wins at the start of this prep, then found the 1400m here a touch too far last time out when a heavily backed favourite, so coming back to 1200m, senior rider on board, and down in the weights should see this Mick Price runner prove hard to get past.
$250 About Square Free Bet
Race Five (15:00) : The Mittys Vanity 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Good thing on the program here courtesy of Scratchy Bottom , who I think will win a Group 1 before the end of this preparation. She couldn’t have been any more impressive first up at Caulfield, sitting last, on the fence, nowhere to go, then angles into the clear and puts pay to them in a couple of strides. Classy mare who should lap up the spacious surroundings of Flemington. Can’t see her getting beat.
Big Danger: Solicit was superb during the Spring in the better class fillies races, winning her first two runs during the prep before running behind Arabian Gold and KIrramosa (twice), including that thrilling finish in the Oaks. Arguably, she should have won the Oaks given she pulled her head off in front. With better racing manners, she can measure up to Oaks company again, so she goes in as a real threat.
Roughie: Sensibility has to go into calculations. Awesome debut winner at Mornington during the Spring, then was disappointing in the Morphettville Guineas before running a cracking second to world class filly Guelph in the Flight Stakes. Any horse who gets beat 1.8 lengths by that superstar is a pretty handy horse.
$250 Scratchy Bottom Free Bet
Race Six (15:40) : CS Hayes Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: This is D-Day for Prince Harada . Fair run first up at Caulfield I thought after wanting to pull a touch early on in the race. He did relax soon after and had his chance. Coming to Flemington may suit him, and drawn wide will assist given he prefers to be outside horses. This race will tell us if he is a contender or a pretender.
Big Danger: Hucklebuck is a very classy South Australian animal. Made a name of himself during the Spring with a desperately unlucky third to Lion Of Belfort at the Valley, then bolting in the Gothic Stakes before an unlucky second to Paximadia in the Carbine Club. Resumed the other day at Morphettville and was outstanding, hitting the front at the top of the straight with 59.5kg and holding his main rival, Kushadasi, comfortably despite being first up and carrying condition. Serious threat and deserved top pick in betting.
Roughie: Plenty to like about the first up run of quality gelding The Quarterback where he got further back than anticipated and got held up between runners in the straight before getting clear and really savaging the line late for third. Flemington will be interesting for this horse as he has a brilliant short, sharp turn of foot, and that doesn’t get you home here unless you are presented at the precise time.
$250 Prince Harada Free Bet
Race Seven (16:20) : Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: I think it’ll be Snitzerlands turn to have her day in the Group 1 spotlight. She has been placed countless times in the big races, most notably in The Galaxy when looking to have the race won, only to be gunned down by a world class sprinting performance from Bel Sprinter. She looked very sharp in a barrier trial win last week, and throw in an excellent first up record, I’m happy to be in her corner.
Big Danger: Bernabeu could be a real rising star in the Sprinting ranks given there isn’t much depth now post Black Caviar, with the exception of Buffering. This bloke produced one of the runs of Cup Week with a stunning win at this track/distance, and ran outstanding time. Had a jumpout recently, and from all reports, it was a Group 1 winning jumpout. Like him alot here.
Roughie: Aeronautical is a very good first up horse who ran a beauty down the straight in the Newmarket last year. He record a top win in the Razor Sharp before being given a freshen up. Trialled really nicely behind Rain Drum, and is back to his best form, which should see him give this a shake at odds.
$250 Snitzerland Free Bet
Race Eight (17:00) : Elms Handicap 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Very, very ordinary Saturday race. The horse that is in form is Are There Any, so she goes on top here. Got to the fast lane first up won two back at Caulfield, then ran there again last start and narrowly missed out in a three way photo finish to Five All. Flemington looks perfect for her, as does the extra distance.
Big Danger: Xavi has been a perennial money muncher with the punters, and he has been okay without being great in two runs since narrowly getting beat here on Emirates Stakes Day. If ever he is going to win another race, this is it…but he is on my barred list betting wise. Still think he’ll run well, but I won’t be backing him.
Roughie: Nevis is an import having his first Australian run under the guidance of Robert Hickmott and Lloyd Williams. His form over in Europe was okay, he did run sixth to Dawn Approach albeit 14 lengths away from him. Betting will be the best guide.
$250 Are There Any Free Bet
Race Nine (17:40) : Tab.com.au Trophy 1400mForm Guide
Back Me: The United States, interesting runner for Lloyd Williams, Unknown. Foundry. Club Command got bogged down by the weight in the Sunny Coast Cup when third to Fillydelphia. Run prior in the Magic Millions Cup behind Velrosso was outstanding after doing plenty of work, so those two hard runs should have him cherry ripe for this, and he looks one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: Decircles was given a peach ride by Murphy to win last time out over this track/distance. Doesn’t look to be much early pressure here, so Murphy could again adopt similar tactics, and if he does get a cheap furlong, he’ll again be hard to run down.
Roughie: Foundry makes his Australian debut for Lloyd Williams and Robert Hickmott. He will be better over much further, but he has plenty of upside and a touch of class about him, so like Nevis, keep an eye on him.
$250 Club Command Free Bet
Best Bet: Race Five Number 4 Scratchy Bottom (Best Odds: $3.80)
Next Best: Race Nine Number 2 Club Command (Best Odds: $5.00)
Best Roughie: Race Six Number 7 Prince Harada (Best Odds: $6.50)
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Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7
Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 8, 10
Leg Three: 2, 5, 8, 9
Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 10, 11, 12
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
The presence of two-year-olds Boomwaa and Bugatty has added another dimension to the Lightning Stakes but Snitzerland’s trainer Gerald Ryan believes the form lines can be found elsewhere.
Ryan says the task of taking on the more seasoned sprinters offsets the obvious weight advantage the youngsters have with 46kg, 8.5kg less than three-year-old filly Brilliant Bisc one of the outsiders in the Group One sprint.
“I think there’s a big question over whether two-year-olds are strong enough,” Ruam said.
“They have speed and I know it’s a 1000 metres not 1200 but Peggy Jean beat Boomwaa in the Inglis Classic and she wouldn’t get near Snitzerland.
“Samaready is the favourite and the one to beat along with John O’Shea’s three-year-old (Bernabeu).
“But I’m very happy with my mare. She is as strong as she has ever been. Her barrier trial was good and Brenton has been pleased with her this week.”
Race jockey Brenton Avdulla has been in Melbourne for the past couple of days to give Snitzerland her final work-out and also to put her stablemate and leading Blue Diamond contender Rubick through his paces.
Samaready is the $3 favourite for the Lightning ahead of Snitzerland at $4.40 and Bernabeu at $6.
The Mick Price-trained Samaready will be having her first start since her Manikato Stakes failure after which she was found to have had an internal haemorrhage.
Before the Manikato she stamped her authority on the Moir Stakes field in September which was a disaster for Snitzerland who pulled up with a respiratory ailment that derailed her spring.
She recovered well and was given her chance in a Listed sprint at Flemington during Melbourne Cup week.
Snitzerland was beaten a nose after a battle with another Price-trained runner, Lankan Rupee who backed up nine days later for a Group Three win.
He returned last Saturday to post another impressive win and stampe himself as a leading Oakleigh Plate contender.
The Lightning field has been reduced to 12 with the scratching of Thermal Current with a temperature, leaving Peter Moody with just outsider Brilliant Bisc as the trainer tries to win the race for the fourth consecutive year after three wins by Black Caviar.
One of the great mare’s owners, Neil Werrett, is also aiming for his fourth-straight win as a partner in Snitzerland.
