The staying feature of the Flemington card is The Bagot Handicap with a field of eleven taking part. With seven of the field having win at least one of their past two starts, we’ve got a wide open affair with joint favourites in early markets You Think So and I’m Jake ($5.50) with Unusual Suspect ($6.50), King Diamond ($6.00) and Crafy Cruiser ($7.00) all well in contention.
1. UNUSUAL SUSPECT
Finally recorded his first Australian win when narrowly scoring in the Werribee Cup a fortnight ago, defeating King Diamond and I’m Jake. Carried the same weight to victory that he has been allocated today and with in-form Brad Rawiller and gate two also in his favour, can’t see any reason why he won’t be in the thick of it again.
Odds: $7.50
2. KING DIAMOND
He proved that his win in the Ballarat Cup (40/1) two starts back wasn’t a fluke by going within a whisker of winning the Werribee Cup at his most recent start. Appears to have really hit his straps this prep now that he has had a handful of starts under his belt and returns to a track where he has won three from five.
Odds: $6.50
3. I’M JAKE
A good effort two starts back under the WFA conditions of the Sandown Cup was followed up with a head third to the above two runners at his last start in the Werribee Cup. Never far away in these races but is finding it hard to break through for that elusive win. Will have to come across from his wide gate if, as he prefers to do, takes up a forward position.
Odds: $5.50
4. YOU THINK SO
He has won four of his last five starts, the last three in succession and his most recent two when rated a treat in front by McCabe. He’ll go forward again and will enjoy the relatively lightweight when compared to recent outings, of 54kgs. If he can get to the lead/on pace cheaply, he’ll be in this for a long way.
Odds: $5.50
5. WARATONE
He won three on the trot in Adelaide and brought that winning form with him to record a comfortable 1 ¾ win at Caulfield two starts back in a BM 89 defeating Commanding Time. Got his tongue over the bit when failing last start behind You Think So when starting as a 7/2 chance. Obviously forgive him that one and when comparing the prices in his last start to You Think So, the $13.00 in early markets available about him here creates interest.
Odds: $13.00
6. CRAFTY CRUISER
Unbelievably he kicked off this campaign in April and his now lining up for his 21st run this prep! Of those starts, he’s won two – a BM 78 (in September) and a RST 82 (in October) both on Slow tracks. Not suited by the WFA conditions of the Sandown Cup two starts back but a better effort last start with a head second to You Think So under 59kg. On that run and today’s weights, despite the moderate strike rate, he’s another not without some hope.
Odds: $8.00
7. MUIRFIELD
Having his fifth run in this prep and judging by his last start effort, when fifth of eight (beaten 2.9 lengths) behind Alcohol in a Flemington Open (2000m), he’ll appreciate the 2800m. Only a lightly raced five year old (this is his eighteenth start) from the Mike Moroney yard, he’s runs into some inform and seasoned stayers here.
Odds: $13.00
8. MODULE
He has been just a few lengths of the mark at both of his recent outings, finishing in fourth position in both behind Waratone (beaten 4.1 lengths) and more recently You Think So (beaten 2.1 lengths). He’s only won one of his thirteen starts in the past two years and a win here would surprise.
Odds: $26.00
9. STAR OF JEUNE
Chased home You Think So two starts back when second, beaten four lengths before dead-heating with Akzar last start at Moonee Valley over 3000m. He’s last three wins have all come at the Valley circuit. He’ll go forward however, expect there’ll be a few too good for him in this race.
Odds: $41.00
10. ROCK ROBSTER
Comfortably won a F&M 82 two starts back by four lengths before running second as 8/11 on Fav. (beaten a head) to Ivory Cross in a RST 78 event at Moonee Valley two and a half weeks ago. Steps up significantly in grade and whilst she’s an improving staying mare, thought a race like this was a bit beyond her at this stage of her career and that the $10.00 on offer was a bit skinny.
Odds: $10.00
11. WARWARICK
Won a Werribee RST 62 by four lengths two starts back and then won by a dozen, when competing in the same grade at Ballarat on the 23rd December. Since stepping beyond 2000m in his races, the son of High Chaparral has improved lengths but is that improvement enough to win this?
Odds: $8.00
SUMMARY
Generally, a 2800m handicap at Flemington over summer wouldn’t be described as a good betting race but, this event seems to be the exception to the rule. Not sure where to start here to be honest, most have a legitimate chance. Off the back of his liking for the track and that he’s last two starts have been as good as any, I’ll stick King Diamond on top. Arnold should bide his time and the tempo genuine enough for him to finish well. Given that he was 7/2 last start and had genuine excuses, thought Waratone was the forgotten horse at $13.00.
