There is just the one Group 1 race in Australia on Saturday and thats the Australian Guineas which will be run at Flemington racecourse. All Too Hard headlines the field and looks to be the runner the rest have to beat after he has returned with two impressive victories both of which have been Group 1 races.
The day also hosts the Group 3 Frances Tressady Stakes and four other listed races in what looks to be a great days racing and luckily Melbourne hasn’t received the rain which has hit Sydney and will race on a Dead 4 or Good 3 track.
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Race One: Festival Of Racing 1000 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Indulgence was heavily backed when he accepted last start but was scratched. He has been heavily backed again for Saturday so connections must have some confidence in him winning which is why ive put him on top. No form to go off but in racing money talks.
Don’t Back Me: It’s hard to put a line through a horse in this race but if i have to select one it would be Mount Zero. She has had four starts and i dont think she was overly impressive after getting all of the favours.
Big Danger: Again ive gone with an unraced runner as the danger that being Marianne. She has been well supported in the market and Craig Williams takes the ride so you’d expect her to race well.
Roughie: Excitable Boy looks to be a good roughie in the race with race experience on his side.
$250 Indulgence Free Bet
Race Two: Juene Handicap 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Keep Cool looks the best horse in the race and if he can settle in front should be able to hold the rest of the small field off.
Don’t Back Me: Elusive King continues to take punters money and he just seems like a non winner now. Im willing to risk him on Saturday.
Big Danger: Shewan is the obvious danger to Keep Cool where they finished second and third to Bells Of Troy last time. Just feel in the small field it will suit Keep Cool more.
Roughie: All the runners are all in the market but Zlatan looks the best roughie of the race. He has won four of his last five starts so knows how to win.
$250 Keep Cool Free Bet
Race Three: Mr’s Macs Beef Pie Sprint 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Glows looks a great bet in this race. She has a fantastic first up record and has only missed a place twice in her ten start career. You can get $6.50 for her and i reckon she will get backed come race time.
Don’t Back Me: Again i found it hard to find one in the market that couldn’t win. I think Loveyamadly is under the odds at $2.80. She is very quick and i think she will get grabbed late.
Big Danger: Avoid Lightning has won six from nine and looks a very talented galloper. She did it tough last start and was still able to win and she looks very tough to beat.
Roughie: Lady Antebellum was scratched from Moonee Valley on Friday night to race here and when thats the case they usually do well.
$250 Glows Free Bet
Race Four: Frances Tressaday Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: There’s Only One looks the horse to beat in the race with a very good second up record as well good distance and track record its hard to go past her.
Don’t Back Me: Sheila’s Star looks to be unders a $4 but has received support from punters. Hasn’t got a great win record, happy to leave her out.
Big Danger: Koonoomoo looks to be the biggest danger to the favourite. She raced well in Group 1 company last start and was well beaten but comes to a much more winnable race here.
Roughie: There isn’t a lot of value in the small field but the best runner in the market outside of the favourites is definitely Jolie Blonde.
$250 There’s Only One Free Bet
Race Five: Roy Higgins Quality 2600m Form Guide
Back Me: It’s hard to look past last start Mornington Cup winner Tuscan Fire in this race. He has drifted in the market which is giving punters better value and looks very hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Ran well behind Tuscan Fire last start but i doubt Kutchinsky can turn the tables on Saturday. He doesn’t have the best record at Flemington and im happy to risk him at his current quote of $5.
Big Danger: It was a huge win by Bells Of Troy last start and looks like he can go on with it. Has had one start at the track for one win which is a bonus.
Roughie: On paper the race looks dominated by the favourites but if there is a horse in double figures that could win and i wouldn’t be surprised it would be Red Shift.
$250 Tuscan Fire Free Bet
Race Six: TAB Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Launay looks well placed here and is at better value than favourite Callanish in my opinion.
Don’t Back Me: British General i think isn’t coming out of the best form races heading into the race and im happy to leave him out of my selections.
Big Danger: The obvious danger is Callanish who has won eight from nine and was only beaten last start in the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes.
Roughie: It’s not a race in which there will be a long priced winner but i think Shout Out Loud is a much better horse than his last two runs suggest.
$250 Launay Free Bet
Race Seven: Australian Guineas 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: All Too Hard is the current $1.28 favourite and he deserves to be. You cant possibly see him lose against this competition unless he is very unlucky during the run.
Don’t Back Me: The rest of the field.
Big Danger: A very talented horse Albrecht has been disappointing this preparation but could turn things around on Saturday.
Roughie: Ajeeb has won his last two by big margins in much easier company. Looks like he could be a very talented runner.
$250 All Too Hard Free Bet
Race Eight: Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: It’s hard to look past Ready To Rip first up in this race. He has had four first up runs in which he has won all four. Currently at $6 in the market which is great value and punters can have a savour on the place.
Don’t Back Me: Karuta Queen was very disappointing last preparation and just doesn’t look like the same horse that she once was. Has drifted in the market and i think her best is behind her and im happy to leave her out.
Big Danger: Isabella Snowflake is the danger to Ready To Rip she is a very talented runner and has only been beaten once in her four starts and warrants a lot of respect.
Roughie: I thought Cardinal Virtue’s run last start was huge and will be better on Saturday. At $26 he will be finishing strong and i wouldn’t be surprised if he upset the favourites.
$250 Ready To Rip Free Bet
Race Eight: Saintly Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Practiced has found a very winnable race here. He is the class runner in the race and can fire first up, i think if he can get the right run from barrier eleven he will be winning this and when you have one of the best jockeys in the world on board he will have every chance.
Don’t Back Me: Gail’s run last start was very good although she just doesn’t seem to win enough to be at the quote that she is.
Big Danger: Absolutely nothing went right Langridge Street last start and hopefully he can turn his luck around on Saturday where he looks a big danger in the race.
Roughie: Was left flat footed at Moonee Valley last start and the step up in distance will suit Captura where he is a good $16 chance in a weak field.