Saturday we see the running of some very good races with the highlight race of the day the Australian Derby taking second back seat to the TJ Smith Stakes in which we see Black Caviar take on a quality field of runners including her main rival Hay List and last start Galaxy winner Bel Sprinter. We also get to see Saturday’s Golden Slipper winner Overreach back up in the Sires Produce Stakes as she goes for the triple crown.
The weather has been kind to Randwick the last few days and we are likely to have a Dead track come raceday and with nine quality races on the day it looks a great betting meeting especially if your willing to take a few short priced favourites that dominate the betting on the day.
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Race One: Kindergarten Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Safeguard was super impressive on debut last year and has been given time to mature. Often horses who win these early two year old races get even better with some time off. I think he is the horse to beat in the race and looks good odds at $2.80.
Don’t Back Me: Any other runners. I doubt any of the other horses can match it with the two favourites.
Big Danger: Il Cavallo has had some big wraps around it even as far as people saying he would win the Golden Slipper if he got a start. I think that has made his odds unders here but is the major danger to Safeguard.
Roughie:Diamond Oasis has Sidestep form around him and looks the horse who will make up the trifecta in the race.
$250 Safeguard Free Bet
Race Two: Carbine Club Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Tatra will be let to roll forward in the race and i think the main dangers in the field will settle back. I anticipate the tempo to be rather slow which i think will make it very hard for anything to beat Tatra.
Don’t Back Me: Toydini won well last start although heading into this race i dont think its the best form guide and at $3 he is way under the odds.
Big Danger: If for some reason they do pressure Tatra then the horse to run over the top of them is Flying Snitzel.
Roughie: Proverb was disappointing on the weekend but i think he is much better than what he showed at Rosehill. Comes back to the mile where i think he is better suited and at $13 looks a good value bet.
$250 Tatra Free Bet
Race Three: Adrian Knox Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Royal Descent will go into the race with the top weight although i think thats
Don’t Back Me: Unimpeachable was unlucky at Randwick last start but it was in a pretty weak race. She has opened pretty short in the Adrian Knox and i think it is terrible value against a much better field.
Big Danger: Sail hasn’t been missed by punters with her odds shortening two points in betting. She gets a much better barrier on Saturday and she was unlucky in a decent form race last start and looks the biggest danger in the race.
Roughie: Fourtracks Forkids run last start was up there with Unimpeachable’s run and at $34 if your backing the favourite in the race you have to include her in your multiples.
$250 Royal Descent Free Bet
Race Four: Schweppes Chairman’s Qlty Hcp 2600m Form Guide
Back Me: Hathras was up against a very good field in the BMW and definitely was not disgraced when running seventh. Won his two starts before the very impressively and gets a massive weight relief in this race where he looks a very good winning chance.
Don’t Back Me: Julienas has won his last two races but that was against somewhat easier competition. At similar odds as Hathras i think he is unders in the market.
Big Danger: Mourayan is the class runner of the race and despite being rather disappointing in his last two starts if you check his form he is much better third up and looks right in this race against an easier field than he has raced against lately.
Roughie: Vatuvei’s run behind Jet Away had a lot of merit to it and i think the extra distance here will definitely suit him where he is at $15 to win the race.
$250 Hathras Free Bet
Race Five: Sires Produce Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Overreach has been super impressive at each of her starts this preparation and despite being a long odds on favourite in the race she looks unbeatable in the race.
Don’t Back Me: Guelph was well beaten by Overreach last start and she has drawn out wide where i doubt she will get any favours.
Big Danger: Villa Verde will get a better run in the race as opposed to the Golden Slipper and over the long distance could be a danger to the favourite if there is one.
Roughie: Havana has raced in two very good races in his only two starts and i think there is a lot of improvement with the experience of those two runs and think he can sneak into the placings at long odds.
$250 Overreach Free Bet
Race Six: Doncaster Prelude 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Moriarty ticks all of the boxes heading into the race. He has a great first up record and has won twice from three times over the distance. He is currently a $15 shot which is reflected in the barrier he is drawn which is a bit of a worry but Corey Brown should be able to give him a good run.
Don’t Back Me: Havana Rey has drawn the car park in the race and from barrier 16 he will need a lot to go right to win the race which suggests the $5 on offer is unders.
Big Danger: Mahisara is coming out of a strong form race where he had no luck in running and should be right in the finish here.
Roughie: Stout Hearted has been out of form of late although im willing to give him one last chance and if he can return to his best could win this race at $41.
$250 Moriarty Free Bet
Race Seven: Australian Derby 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: It’s A Dundeel is a superstar in the making if he isn’t already classified as one. He has beaten many of these horses comprehensively and will do it again on Saturday.
Don’t Back Me: All other runners except It’s A Dundeel.
Big Danger: Philippi was too good for them last start and looks the obvious runner to run second to the favourite.
Roughie: Bass Strait should improve with the extra distance and at triple figure odds he could run a nice placing in the race.
$250 It’s A Dundeel Free Bet
Race Eight: Sapphire Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Detours has an excellent first up record and looks to have the class to win this race having beaten Mrs Onassis last preparation. Will need a bit of luck from the wide barrier but is likely to go forward and make her own luck.
Don’t Back Me: Arinosa is a much improved horse but her third up record isn’t very good having only ran one placing from five starts so at $4.20 in this very even race looks unders.
Big Danger: Dystopia was unlucky in The Galaxy last start and punters think she can continue that good form in this race where her odds have shortened substantially and looks a danger in the race.
Roughie: Gybe has continued to be scratched from easier races. They were either having issues with the horse or they are confident she is competitive in this race and should be kept safe at $51.
$250 Detours Free Bet
Race Nine: T.j. Smith Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Black Caviar has won twenty four from twenty four and she will make it twenty five straight wins on the weekend.
Don’t Back Me: Any horse to beat Black Caviar.
Big Danger: Bel Sprinter’s run in The Galaxy was massive and if he can replicate that he is likely to run into the placings.
Roughie: Sea Siren is a very good horse and we definitely didn’t see her at her best last start in the Galaxy and should be able to turn things around.
$250 Black Caviar Free Bet
Best Bet: Hathras is coming out of The BMW where he was only beaten 2.4L by Fiveandahalfstar carrying 58kg. He gets 53kg in the race and will go forward and make his own luck and should be winning well.
Next Best: Tatra will be very hard to hold out in what looks to be a slowly run race in the Carbine Club Stakes and looks great value at $6.50.
Best Roughie: Moriarty is currently $15 in the market and looks the best value bet of the day at Randwick racecourse with an excellent first up record he looks hard to beat and can be backed each way.