Racing will return to Flemington on Saturday in which we see a quality eight race program with the feature race on the day being The Straight Six with a prize pool of $120,000. The meeting looks like it will produce a ton of value for punters with plenty of our tips being at double figure odds including our best bet of the day.
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Race One (12:00) : Victorian Carbine Club Plate 1000m
Back Me: Husson Eagle hasn’t been a punters friend in his last two starts but with prior race experience in what look to be decent form races will definitely prove useful against a field of horses who will be having their first starts. His run at Sandown last start was very good when hitting the line well and the Flemington straight should suit and the weight drop will insure he is very hard to beat.
Big Danger: Agent For Change will go into the race without any trials or race experience but purely based on his breeding he needs to be added into the selecetions. He comes out of the Mick Price stable who always figures in these 2yo races and he must be kept safe which bookmakers have.
Roughie: Chasing Liberty has had the one career start at Bendigo over 900m which he led and weakened late. I think he would take a lot from that run into Saturday and if he can get an easy run upfront he will make his own luck and be tough to run down at big odds.
Race Two (12:35) : Henry Bolte Hcp (90) 1700m
Back Me: Bachelor Royal did enough at Sandown last start first up over an unsuitable distance to warrant putting him in the tips here. He made decent ground late and with the extra distance and drop in weight he will be right in the finish on Saturday. He has had one start over the distance for the one win and his run last preparation at Flemington in a decent form race should see him figure here.
Big Danger: Harveys True Heart is a horse that looks like he will continue to improve. His runs recently on rain affected ground weren’t great but he is likely to be back on top of the ground at Flemington on Saturday which will definitely increase his chances in the race. He is likely to take up the running and there doesn’t look to be much pace in the race so he should get a relatively good run throughout and give a good kick in the straight with just 54kg on his back. He is at great each way value.
Roughie: Prince Of Capers has opened and is likely to start at massive odds in the race but i think back in this grade and with the 3kg claim he will be right in the finish. His record over the track and distance is good having run third on both of his occasions and he likes Flemington. He drops in grade sharply here and i think he is a very good each way bet on Saturday in what is a winnable race for him.
Race Three (13:10) : Trevor Clarke Hcp 1200m
Back Me: Scarlet Billows is a very talented filly who has a good career record. Last start she got back at Warrnambool on the heavy going where she had a lot of issues and never handled the track so i will be putting a line through that run. The start before i thought outside of the winner ‘Srikandi’ she put in the run of the race and that form has stacked up in Queensland which looks very good for this race. Her first up run this preparation she hit the line strongly after a 6month break in what was a quick 1000m race. She looks hard to beat and at double figure odds she is very good value in betting.
Big Danger: Belle Couture was very disappointing last start where i thought she would be tough to beat. Nothing appeared to be wrong and if she is right on Saturday i will be happy to add her into my tips and ignore last start. She has shown a very good turn of foot and i hope we see it at Flemington on Saturday.
Roughie: Amaretto won well at her first start despite finding trouble in the straight. She then went to Bendigo and raced well in what i think be a good form race for the class and track with the race run in good time. I think she will improve with the step up in distance on Saturday and at the big odds i think she can definitely figure in the finish.
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Race Four (13:45) : Banjo Paterson Series Ht 2000m
Back Me: Freshwater Storm was my best bet at Caulfield on the weekend where he ran a good second in the race. He will take improvement from the run and will get into the weights very well on Saturday with just the 52kg on his back. He has drawn a barrier to get the run of the race and despite the step up in grade i think the race he is coming out of will be a good form race so at the double figure quote he goes on top and punters can back him each way with confidence.
Big Danger: Tooleybuc Kid has won his last two impressively and he deserves to line up here as the short priced favourite in the race. He has three starts at the distance for two wins and a placing and he has placed twice at Flemington. He has drawn well and with the claim he is weight very well and will take a lot of beating.
Roughie: Garud put in a much improved run last start when running third. He will be better on top of the ground on Saturday and i think he will improve from that run. He doesn’t have a very good strike rate but i think he is the horse at a big price that could win the race so he must be included.
Race Five (14:22) : Andrew Ramsden Stakes 3200m
Back Me: Unchain My Heart didn’t handle the rain affected ground last start so it was a good run when you take that into account. Back on top of the ground and with the added distance i think he will be very hard to beat. He has one win from two tries over the distance with the win over the track and distance which is a major bonus with these staying races in which quite a few runners are a query at the trip.
Big Danger: Gotta Take Care is such an honest galloper and he will be rock hard fit from his hurdle at Warrnambool which he was super impressive when winning. He will have to carry 59kg which i don’t think will be an issue and he is a very good each way chance in this race.
Roughie: Wells you know will run the trip and be very competitive in doing so. He gets into the weights well on Saturday and at the double figure price i think he is a horse you have to include in your selections at the trip.
Race Six (14:57) : The Straight Six 1200m
Back Me: Karacatis had his first start on a slow track last start in The Goodwood and i don’t think he handled it that well and probably got back too far in the run and was never in the race. I think they will try to race handier on Saturday which will suit and his form looks very good around some good Group 1 winners. He should be able to position just behind the leaders and will be hard to beat at what i think to be good odds although albeit in a tough betting race.
Big Danger: Lonhspresso was heavily backed first up but could only run an okay fourth. She had excuses with the stewards report saying she pulled up lame after the race. Because of that i am willing to give her another chance on Saturday and if she is at her best i think she will be very hard to beat.
Roughie: Blackie flew late in the Wangoom last start and really caught the eye in that race. This race looks to have good speed in it which will set it up for those running on from the back and i think he will be the one to come over the top of them and with a bit of luck he can definitely win this at a good price.
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Race Seven (15:32) : Vrc-crv Winter C’ship Ht 1400m
Back Me: Limes has a good record at Flemington although not posting a win from his four tries he has run second three times. He finds an easier race on Saturday and his form from earlier in the year looks to be good enough to win a race like this. He will need some luck from the wide barrier and will need to carry a big weight but i think he has the class to win this.
Big Danger: Henwood returned to winning form at Flemington last start which is where he does his best racing. He gets into the weights well again on Saturday and he will go back from the wide barrier which shouldn’t be an issue. There looks to be good speed in the race which will set it up for him to run on late.
Roughie: Shadow Ninja looks to be at very good odds when you take into account he beat race favourite Henwood two starts ago before failing on a slow track last time out. He has drawn a good barrier and i am expecting him to be much better on top of the ground on Saturday.
Race Eight (16:10) : K.a. Morrison Hcp 1600m
Back Me: Miss Maggiebeel did everything wrong last start so you can put a line through that run. On her form last preparation i think she will be very hard to beat in this race. She will need to overcome the a wide barrier and a relatively big weight for a 3yo filly but on ability she should go very close and at good odds.
Big Danger: By The Grace won a good form race last start and im expecting him to continue with the good form. He will have to carry the top weight in the race but he looks well placed in this grade and the Flemington straight should suit him. He looks hard to beat but under the odds in the betting due to the big weight.
Roughie: Kirani led and weakend late at Werribee but i thought it was a very good run as they went quick throughout the race so to only be narrowly beaten on the line was a very good job and he showed a lot of heart. He drops in weight from that run and i think he can dictate in front and run a big race at good odds so he must be inlcluded in multiples.
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Best Bet: Race Three Number 4 Scarlet Billows
Next Best: Race Five Number 6 Unchain My Heart
Best Roughie: Race Eight Number 7 Miss Maggiebeel