We take a look at the Field for the Group 1 All Aged Stakes which is set to be run at Randwick Racecourse on Saturday. We’ll also give our tips and bets for the race as well as a look at each of the key runners in the race. View our All Aged Stakes preview below.
All Aged Stakes (Group 1), Race 7, 1400m
Racecourse
Randwick, Sydney
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History:
*The median winning dividend is 6.00 while 0 of 10 have been greater than 10.00 (2 winners have been 10.00).
*4 of 10 winners had their lead-up run in the TJ Smith.
*Three-year-olds have won 3 of the last 10 and in that time backing the 16 three-year-olds to win 1 unit POT would be 22 percent at the SP price.
*2 of 10 winners won their lead-up race while only 2 finished unplaced.
Historical trends narrow the focus to 1, 2, 10, 11
Map
Map Comments
Very tricky map with few genuine leaders.
Trapeze Artist races best off a good tempo but with the race devoid of pace he may need to press forward, or risk being caught wide.
I’ve mapped Le Romain to go forward, this will require a notification of change of tactics, so monitor the stewards’ information.
Given they went forward with Tom Melbourne in the Doncaster from barrier 14, they’ll surely hold their place from 4.
On pace may be an advantage.
Leading Contenders
Trapeze Artist ($2.30)
Won the TJ Smith with ease after sitting off a solid tempo.
That was a new career peak, superior to his Golden Rose triumph, also off a very solid tempo.
If he repeats last starts performance then he’ll win.
The conundrum as I have posed before is whether he’s likely to repeat, regress or advance on that performance.
Given the race shape and extreme peak of the TJ Smith effort, I can’t see him possibly advancing.
He regressed substantially off the Golden Rose effort although there were excuses in the Coolmore.
He also regressed heavily off his first up effort this preparation which was another peak.
Those patterns tell me he’s a risk and while I have him on top, I have to pass at the current price.
Brave Smash ($7.50)
Failed terribly in the TJ Smith.
He had no issues in the run and there were no reports of any abnormalities post-race.
Trainer Darren Weir has been quoted as suggesting they could find no reason for the excuse and hoping he’ll bounce back.
This is distinctly possible for any horse, particularly with such natural ability and with a good trainer.
If you like Brave Smash, I think you must take on trust that he’ll be presented fit and well for the race.
I however, can’t be that confident and despite the market providing some compensation in his price, he’ll be winning without me.
Le Romain ($8.00)
He’ll appreciate the step up to 1400m.
The barrier is problematic, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a change of tactics with him to roll forward.
Certainly, I think that would give him his best chance of winning.
His Spring campaign was a bit lacklustre by his standards and the first two runs of this preparation have been good, particularly his closing 4th in the TJ.
He’s ready to run a big race and one that I can’t discount.
Hartnell ($9.00)
The X-Factor for this race coming off a 42-day freshen since sitting off the track in the Australian Cup.
It was impossible for him to win given the conditions that day and his first two efforts back from a spell were great in winning the CF Orr over 1400m and running 3rd in the Peter Young Stakes, a race devoid of tempo.
He has a tricky barrier and tactics again will be interesting.
His fresh record is outstanding with that win in the CF Orr preceded by a win in the Peter Lawrence Stakes at Group 2 level and 2nd placed efforts to Winx at 3 and 4 preps
The freshen combined with the drop back in distance is a positive in my book and I think he’s the value runner.
Tom Melbourne ($10.00)
Just when I thought it was best to sit back in the Doncaster they decided to revert to going forward.
I’m not sure if Tom Melbourne knows exactly what he’s supposed to do when the barriers open!
Despite working early, he stuck on ok beaten just 2.6L.
He’ll get the run of the race here and has a PB that is around what is required.
If he reaches that I suspect, he may still find 1 or 2 too good however.
The Verdict
I don’t like the price on offer for Trapeze Artist.
He’s the most likely winner and deserved favourite, but it’s imperative to look for value, not just who is most likely to win.
I like the way Hartnell profiles for the race despite the unique nature of his preparation.
If I could get 12.00+ Le Romain I would consider him in my staking plan but not at this stage.
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Bets
1. Hartnell
2. Trapeze Artist
3. Le Romain
4. Tom Melbourne
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