The 2018 Australian Guineas has drawn an outstanding field of three-year-olds and it is set to be a highly fascinating race at Flemington on Saturday.
Cliff’s Edge has opened as a narrow favourite from Grunt, but this is a race that is packed full of quality and there are a tonne of winning chances in yet another open Group 1 event in Melbourne.
We have analysed all 18 horses in the field and our complete 2018 Australian Guineas tips can be found below!
Mighty Boss
Mighty Boss was caught wide in the Futurity Stakes last weekend and he could finish no better than eighth behind Brave Smash. There is no doubt that Mighty Boss had excuses and he was caught in the worst part of the track, but it is still not the type of performance you want to see the week before the Australian Guineas. His efforts in the Caulfield Guineas and the C.F. Orr Stakes show that he is capable of a high-rating performance and you can’t rule him, but I am happy to take him on at the current price.
Cliff’s Edge
Cliff’s Edge was beaten by Grunt in the CS Hayes Stakes, but he was still very gallant in defeat and he goes into the Australian Guineas as one of the horses to beat. The wide barrier draw could actually prove to be an advantage as it will force John Allen to press forward on the Canford Cliffs colt and he has shown that he does have plenty of tactical field. Cliff’s Edge simply doesn’t run a bad race and the step-up to 1600 metres is ideal for him third-up. He will be in the finish.
Embellish
Embellish made his Australian racing debut with a fairly plain effort in the CS Hayes Stakes and it is tough to back him in this race off that performance. He did win the New Zealand 2000 Guineas in November, but it wasn’t a particularly high-rating edition of the race and he would need to go to another level to win this race.
Levendi
Levendi will go into the Australian Guineas second-up following a fifth place finish in the Autumn Stakes. The Pierro colt has recorded three wins from six starts and there is no doubt that he has challenge. The question mark is whether he has the upside to mix it with the very best horses in this field and I am yet to really see any indication of this. He is another horse that looks to have found his right price.
Muraaqeb
Muraaqeb has finished in the placings in both the Manfed Stakes and the CS Hayes Stakes. He showed a particularly impressive turn-of-foot in the CS Hayes Stakes and that suggests that he will have no issues running out a strong 1600 metres. The wide barrier draw is a concern and he maps to get a very long way back in the run. It would not surprise to see him run on nicely late, but I would be surprised if he won.
Villermont
Villermont stamped himself as a horse with a big future with his win in the Sandown Guineas in the Spring, but he was not overly impressive when he returned to the races in the Autumn Stakes. He would need to improve on that effort significantly to be any chance in the Australian Guineas.
Main Stage
There was plenty to like about the first-up performance of Main Stage and he should be even better with that run under his belt. He maps to get a lovely trail into this race with the in-form Regan Bayliss in the saddle and there is no doubt that he will run out a strong 1600 metres. Bayliss will need some luck in running at the right time, but if he gets that he will charge at them late and does look over the odds at $15.
Addictive Nature
Addictive Nature is a horse that has never really lived up to the early hype. He had every possible chance when he finished third first-up in the Expressway Stakes and he had no excuses when he finished fifth in the Apollo Stakes. This will be a good test as to where the Sydney three-year-olds stack up against the Melbourne three-year-olds, but I am happy to take on Addictive Nature.
Holy Snow
Holy Snow stamped himself as a genuine Australian Guineas contender with his fast-finishing victory in the Autumn Stakes and he will need to show that turn-of-foot once again. Michael Dee will likely have to settle him a long way back from the wide barrier draw as he lacks early speed and that does make this a fairly difficult assignment.
Salsamor
Salsamor will step-up in class significantly after being beaten by King’s Command in a Benchmark 78 event at Ladbrokes Park first-up. His overall winning record does not inspire confidence and he probably should be double his current price.
Grunt
There are few more progressive horses in the country than Grunt and if he continues improving at the rate he has been, then he will prove very tough to beat in the Australian Guineas. Damien Oliver rode him perfectly in the CS Hayes Stakes and he was able to beat Cliff’s Edge – Oliver will need to produce another peach to get him home in the Australian Guineas, but there are few better big-race jockeys in the country. He has shown early speed during his racing career to date and that does give Oliver a number of options from the wide barrier draw. There is no doubt that Grunt is a horse with a big future and he is the horse to beat.
Black Sail
Black Sail is a horse that has raced well at black-type level without breaking through for a big race win. He was fairly disappointing in the Autumn Stakes and it is impossible to back him in a race of this quality off that effort.
Peaceful State
There was a fair amount of hype surrounding Peaceful State ahead of the CS Hayes Stakes, but he produced a fairly flat effort. He is another horse that will likely need to get a fair way back from the wide barrier draw and he would need to produce a clear career peak to be any chance of winning this contest. I am happy to take him on at the current price.
Mr So And So
Mr So And So drops back in distance following his third place finish in the Autumn Classic last weekend. I’m not sure that the step-back in trip is what he is searching for at this stage of his preparation and he is a horse that has no early speed whatsoever. He would need a massive amount of luck and probably isn’t good enough anyway.
Aloisia
Aloisia is the x-factor in the Australian Guineas field. She looked like a star in the making when she won the Thousand Guineas and the Moonee Valley Vase in the Spring before she failed in the Kennedy Oaks. She wasn’t disgraced in The Vanity and she did make up good ground late. The Azamour filly was able to take a massive leap second-up last campaign and she would need to do the same to be any chance in the Australian Guineas. I don’t want to rule her out, but she does look to have found her right price.
Bring Me Roses
Bring Me Roses won the Edward Manifold Stakes over the Flemington mile in the Spring and she was only narrowly denied in The Vanity. Barrier one is not ideal for the High Chaparral filly as she will likely get a long way back and require plenty of luck in running. She is a nice filly that has probably reached her level and I don’t think she has the same level of improvement as some of the other horses in this field.
Paret
Paret is the first emergency in the 2018 Australian Guineas. His two runs this campaign have been poor and he has never shown anything to suggest that he is capable of winning a race of this quality.
Mahalangur
This is a huge step-up in class for Mahalangur. He requires a pair of scratchings to earn a start.
