2016 Rosehill Guineas Field Preview and Tips

Montaigne          060216                2251
2016 Rosehill Guineas Field Preview and Tips

Tarzino on target for Rosehill Guineas. The first step in what could potentially rated as the best day of Trainer Mick Price’s career, will be taken in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m). Price has the short-priced favourite Tarzino who likes perfectly prepared after two very encouraging runs back from a spell. The Derby winner from last spring dominates the market with only Le Romain ($7), Montaigne ($9) and the only filly in the race, Jameka ($6.50) under double figure odds.

 

1. TARZINO – C Newitt

Ran a slashing fourth first up, closing strongly in the Autumn Stakes (1400m) and was nosed out by the in-form Palentino in the Aust Guineas. The step up to 2000m now is perfect and like most from the Price stable, just seems to firing on all cylinders at the moment.

 

2. LE ROMAIN – C Reith

Going to strength to strength for trainer Kris Lees and caused a major upset last fortnight, knocking of Press Statement – whom he ran second to his previous start in the Hobartville Stakes, and taking out the Randwick Guineas. Great form at the moment and unlike the past two events, will not be underestimated this time around.

 

3. VANBRUGH – H Bowman

Struggled to keep up with the first up behind Press Statement in the Hobartville (1400m) but was winding up nicely late in the Australian Guineas, finishing sixth and only 3.25 lengths from Palentino and Tarzino. Will run the trip right out but may be giving them a big start, given he’ll settle well back from his wide draw.

 

4. ETYMOLOGY – J McDonald (9)

Held his ground first up in the Hobartville Stakes, but didn’t a great deal of improvement in him at his following start, the Randwick Guineas, where he batted away in the straight to win tenth (5.9 lengths). Ran second to Tarzino in last year’s VRC Derby and had great form last spring, but just haven’t seen enough from him two runs back to suggest he’s back to that level.

 

5. SHARDS – S Clipperton (6)

Three runs back this prep now, but instead of improving, the Godolphin colt seems to struggling to find the form that saw him finish second in the G2 Vase behind Jameka, and beating Tarzino into third. Gets a nice run here from six, but hard to think he’ll be able to repeal that on what we’ve seen this time in.

 

6. GOLD AMBITION – T Angand (10)

Ran a close second in a BM 77 so not giving much hope when contesting the G1 Randwick Guineas at his following start, but he belied his $81 starting price by running third (1.5 lengths). Gives the impression he’ll enjoy the 2000m and might prove last start’s effort was no fluke with another forward showing here as well.

 

7. RIVER WILD – B Avdulla (8)

Improving type who won two back-to-back in Sydney before going south to Melbourne for a tilt at some Group races at Flemington. Good enough in both the C S Hayes Stakes (8th) and Australian Guineas (4th), to be a legitimate each-way chance here.

 

8. MONTAIGNE – B Shinn (9)

Thought he was very good after a checkered run home in the Hobartville Stakes (3rd) and just as strong, again when running into a bit of traffic at a crucial stage top of the straight, when fifth (2.3 lengths) in the Randwick Guineas. Like that he’s drawn out here, it’ll give him room to wind up and although he’s produce a lot asked of him already this being his first prep, like his chances here.

 

9. I’M BELUCCI – G Boss (11)

Led and collared right on the line two starts back by the in-form Mr Epic at Doomben, before closing strongly late to run fourth to the same horse at his most recent outing. Ran second to Vanbrugh in the G1 Spring Champion this trip during the spring, but had to be winning one of his recent two outings to be considered a strong hope here.

 

10. CROSLEY HOTSHOT –

Going well but in races of far lesser quality than this. Was a strong maiden winner at Randwick over 1800m last November and closed strongly over a mile last start – a mid-week Warwick Farm BM 71. Not a great deal of depth here and outside of the top four or five chances, he may have more upside then the rest.

 

11. HURSLEY – C Williams (13)

Had support in betting ($7.50 into $5.00) and was good against the older horses in a BM 85 (1900m) last start. Draw here does him no favours though and makes a tough assignment, even more difficult.

 

12. SPANISH STRIDE – P Wells (1)

Made it two wins from five starts with victory at Gosford last start in a Class 1 over 2100m, making a long run home to win by 1.5 lengths. Might be able to see out the trip, but looks to lack the class required.

 

13. OH SO SPLENDIDO – O Bosson (4)

New Zealander galloper despite running thirteenth in the NZ Derby – where he failed to make an impression from the back of the field – still has made the trip across????

 

14. JAMEKA – D Oliver (14)

One of the leading fillies from last spring and the only female in this race, she looks set to give the boys plenty of competition after running a solid fourth (2 lengths) to Palention and Tarzino in the Australian Guineas. Draw makes it tough and she’ll need some luck from there, but looks on target for this trip third up.

 

RACE OVERVIEW –

Pretty hard to go past the favourite – two starts back from a spell have been perfect trials for this and he gets to the right distance know, but will stick with Montaigne at the $9.00. Couldn’t finished closer in the Randwick Guineas than he did, and only needs some clear room – which he hasn’t had of late, to push the favourite. Le Romain and Jameka the only genuine hopes. Would be a surprise to see the winner come from outside of this quartet.

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