The spring carnival gets into full swing in Melbourne this weekend with three Group 1 races at Caulfield, headlined by the Caulfield Guineas, as well as the final Group 1 race of the year in Sydney in the Spring Champion Stakes.
$500 CAULFIELD GUINEAS FREE BET
The Caulfield Guineas has long been the premier race of the spring for three year olds, although in recent years it has been joined by the Golden Rose and the Coolmore Stud Stakes in terms of allure.
It has an illustrious history stretching back to 1881, and some of the best three year olds to have graced Australia’s racetracks have won the race.
This year’s Caulfield Guineas looks an open contest with the entire field of 14 looking to have some chance. This is reflected in early markets, with Long John a $4 favourite ahead of Prince Harada ($5.50) and El Roca ($7.50).
What makes this year’s Caulfield Guineas so fascinating, though, is that five of the 14 runners remain in contention for the Cox Plate. Given the strong record of three year olds in the Cox Plate, there is every chance this may be a relevant form reference come our weight for age championship.
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The typical form reference is the Caulfield Guineas Prelude, with the first six across the line matching up again. Éclair Big Bang came with a well-timed run to defeat the Kiwi El Roca, with Long John flying home into third, but Long John is favoured to turn the tables on this occasion.
However, El Roca’s run was admirable under the circumstances, and he can only have improved for the run. He flew at trackwork on Tuesday morning, and with a kinder run, he’ll be awfully hard to beat. That said, New Zealand-trained gallopers have generally struggled in the race, with Our Maizcay the only successful Kiwi in 1995.
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Another relevant formline is the Bill Stutt Stakes (Divine Calling, Shamus Award, Cluster, Late Charge), which last produced the Caulfield Guineas winner in 2008 in Whobegotyou, while Dissident will be aiming to emulate last year’s winner All Too Hard, who came off an unplaced run against the older horses in the George Main Stakes to win the Caulfield Guineas. It is set to be a terrific contest.
At Randwick, the staying three year olds contest the Spring Champion Stakes, which is being run on the same day as the Caulfield Guineas for the first time.
Savvy Nature is the early favourite off the back of a top win in the Spring Stakes at Newcastle, followed by a narrow defeat at the hands of Spring Champion second favourite Complacent. He shapes as the most likely horse in this field to make a top stayer, and sometimes, that can be crucial – as was seen last year when It’s A Dundeel just got the better of Proisir. Still, both Savvy Nature and Complacent look tough to beat once again.
The impeccably bred Rock Hero was as impressive as possible in the Dulcify Quality last week, charging through from an impossible position to win. The distance is some query, but on last week’s effort, he deserves his place in the field.
His stablemate Criterion has been somewhat forgotten, after a couple of lacklustre performances early in his preparation. However, he was very good when finishing second to Eurozone in the Stan Fox Stakes, and he races as though the 2000m will be right up his alley. Don’t forget he was classy enough to finish a closing sixth in the Golden Slipper, and he should not be overlookecd.
Although he’s building quite a reputation as a non-winner, don’t overlook Drago. He found the line okay in the Gloaming Stakes when third, and this has been his target race all preparation. Now up to 2000m, this is his chance to shine.
It really is an open contest, and for the winner, perhaps a place in the Cox Plate may beckon.
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Luxbet’s had a look at the other major races in Melbourne this weekend:
GROUP 1 CAULFIELD STAKES – This race tends to attract a small field each year, and as such it tends to be overlooked when assessing form later in the spring. This was apparent last year, when Ocean Park (won the Cox Plate) and Alcopop (second in the Caulfield Cup, won the Mackinnon Stakes) were both underrated after they ran 1-2 in the Caulfield Stakes. This year, Atlantic Jewel is a hot favourite despite a last start loss to It’s A Dundeel. The big query with her is 2000m – she did win the Wakeful Stakes by seven lengths over the trip, but she beat Rahveel and Dowager Queen, both who have subsequently trained off as older mares. If she runs the trip, class should get her home. If not, though, any of her five rivals could beat her. The stablemate Super Cool had no luck in the Turnbull Stakes and is backing up, with the Cox Plate now a possibility, while Green Moon and Foreteller ran better than it appears on paper off a slow tempo in the Underwood Stakes. Even Spacecraft could win, invoking memories of the longshot win of Douro Valley on pace who dictated on the speed, while Massiyn is an intriguing entrant. It will reveal a lot about the Cox Plate picture.
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GROUP 1 TOORAK HANDICAP – Another week, another very open handicap over the mile. French galloper Trevieres and the emerging Bass Strait will be looking for Caulfield Cup ballot exemption with victory here, a double that is rarely attempted. The last Toorak Handicap winner to go to the Caulfield Cup was Allez Wonder in 2009, while the last horse to complete the double was Cole Diesel back in 1989. Both look to have a good chance, in particular this French-trained miler. Trevieres is a rather unusual runner, in that he’s coming straight from handicap class in France to a Group 1 handicap in Australia. Just because it wasn’t black type in France, though, is misleading, as handicaps aren’t generally part of the pattern in Europe. His turn of foot in a big handicap at Deauville last start was electric, and he looks the perfect type for Australia. It’s not surprising he’s been well backed. Bass Strait may be looking for 2000m now, but a hard run race should suit him well. At least you know they’ll be giving it everything in order to clinch a spot in the Caulfield Cup. Solzhenitsyn won this race 12 months ago, and his last run suggests he’ll be right in the mix, as will Stradbroke Handicap winner Linton and Bobbie Lewis Quality winner Speediness. And if there’s a horse that can surprise at odds, it is Mutual Trust. You couldn’t back him on form, but his closing sectionals in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes were the best in the race and he is ready to show his best.
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GROUP 2 HERBERT POWER STAKES – Another race which offers ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup, this time run over the same course and distance as next week’s feature. After the early scratching of Motivado, 10 horses are set to jump at the top of the Caulfield straight. The prepost favourite is Kesampour, who finished second in the Naturalism Stakes after tracking Mr O’Ceirin all the way. He will appreciate getting out to the 2400m and he should have the race run to suit. However, it’s by no means an easy affair. The first of the international raiders steps out in Simenon, second to Estimate in the Ascot Gold Cup in June before a narrow defeat in the Lonsdale Cup last time out. He came to prominence with a smashing victory in the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 4350m at Royal Ascot last year, when he showed a good turn of foot (over that distance) in defeating Shahwardi by seven lengths. Given Shahwardi then came to Melbourne and won this race, that’s not the worst form at all. Other chances include Sea Moon, who had the Bart Cummings taken from him on protest, and Makybe Diva Stakes fourth Let’s Make Adeal.
GROUP 2 SCHILLACI STAKES – For a race that has been won by Buffering and Black Caviar (twice) the last three years, and super mares Gold Edition (2007) and Miss Andretti (2006) before that, this is one of the weakest runnings of this race in recent memory. If Kuroshio runs to his smashing last start victory in the McEwen Stakes, he’ll be very hard to beat, and he looks very well suited under the weight for age scale. I doubt we’ve seen the best of Unpretentious, who is having his first run since November. He was due to resume in The Galaxy, but was a late scratching at the gates after he had been well supported. He won a trial in good time at Cranbourne, and if he can stay sound, this may be the preparation where he makes the leap to Group-class sprinter. This is a good starting point.
Here’s Luxbet’s take on a bumper weekend of racing:
LUXBET’S CAULFIELD GUINEAS TIP – El Roca – Outstanding at his first Australian start when Newitt tried to catch the other jockeys napping. He’ll have taken improvement from the run, and 1600m should suit him down to the ground. Looks suited.
LUXBET’S BEST – Richie’s Vibe – Caulfield R7 No. 10 – Absolutely charged late to just miss last start. Meets It Is Written 3kg better at the weights and there looks to be some speed engaged. He looks the one to beat.
LUXBET’S VALUE – Trevieres – Caulfield R9 No. 12 – The most fascinating runner of the day. Look up his last win at Deauville on Youtube, he showed a very nice turn of foot under a big weight. It’s hard to figure out how the form stacks up, although there are form links with Lidari. Worth a flutter at each way odds.
LUXBET’S LAY – Our Desert Warrior – Randwick R7 No. 6 – When you look at him on paper, he has attractive form compared to some of his rivals. But he meets a number of runners capable of improving sharply. Purely from a value point of view, he’s a lay.
LUXBET’S BEST BACKED – Trevieres – Caulfield R9 No. 12 – We put up $19 and they were quick to snipe the price. He’s $12, and we’re worried about more money – particularly because we think he’s a top chance.
