Club de Golf Chapultepec plays host to the World Golf Championships in Mexico this week as a handful of the worlds top golfers fight it out for the $10.5 million prize fund.
Last weeks Genesis Invitational winner Adam Scott is among the favourites, but the Aussie will need to bring his A-game against the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and defending champion, Dustin Johnson.
McIlroy and DJ are the only single-digit chances in the market, meaning there is enormous value on offer. To help you out, we’ve analysed all the notable names in our 2020 WGC-Mexico Championship Preview below.
2020 WGC Mexico Championship Best Bet
Justin Thomas – $11.00
Thomas has done just about everything at this course other than win. Last year he finished outright ninth, outright second in 2018, T5 in 2017, and T35 in 2016. That’s good news after things went pear-shaped at Riviera last week where he missed the cut, hitting a combined 16 of 36 greens in regulation. Thomas hasn’t missed back-to-back cuts since 2017 though, so I fully expect a bounce-back this weekend.
2020 WGC Mexico Championship Best Roughie
Sung Kang – $126
Kang’s T2 at Riviera last week was a real eye-catcher for a number of reasons. The Korean finished tied for first in birdies and also ranked outright first in Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green. Lack of experience with this course is the only real concern, but considering Kang is striking the ball better than most, he’s worth something small at triple digits.
2020 WGC Mexico Championship Top 5 Finish
Adam Scott – $4.50
Putting was a real challenge for just about everyone last week at Riviera – everyone not named Scott, that is. The Aussie came up clutch with huge birdie putts on the back nine to secure his first win on Tour since 2016. He’ll now set his sights on a course he hasn’t played since 2017, but with back-to-back wins in his last two starts worldwide (Australian PGA, Genesis Open) and a swing that looks crisper than ever, it’s hard to back against his hot hand.
Hideki Matsuyama – $4.50
Mr. Consistency returned last week as Matsuyama quietly finished T5 at Riviera to leapfrog Paul Casey for 21st in the world rankings. Not surprisingly, he owns a pair of T25 finishes at this event and also ranks top five on Tour in the PGA’s around-the-green and tee-to-green ratings. Other than Scott, nobody is shaping their irons better.
2020 WGC Mexico Championship Top 10 Finish
Xander Schauffele – $2.63
Finished strongly last week at Riviera after a shocking first-round 72. Schauffele ranked second in greens hit during regulation but simply failed to score. He’s been absolute money at WGC events though, finishing inside the Top 25 in six of his eight starts. Putting continues to be Schauffele’s only letdown, but once he finally puts it all together, watch out.
Tommy Fleetwood – $2.75
Massively over the odds considering his recent run of form. Fleetwood joins the PGA Tour on the back of a win at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa, an outright second in the UAE and a T11 at the Dubai Desert Classic last month. He’s well-rested and owns two Top 20 finishes at this event.
Sergio Garcia – $4.33
If you’re a fan of trends, then you’ll love this. Since October last year, Garcia has consistently backed up a Top 10 performance by falling outside the Top 30 in his next start. Last week he finished T37 at Riviera, so if the form has taught us anything, it’s that the Spaniard is in line for another Top 10 finish.
2020 WGC Mexico Championship Top 20 Finish
Louis Oosthuizen – $2.00
The South African returns to the PGA Tour with European form to his name on a course he knows well. Oosthuizen finished second at the South African Open, fifth at the Abu Dhabi Championship and T23 at the Dubai Desert Classic – leaving him well over the odds at the current price. He’s also finished inside the Top 25 in his last six WGC events including a T25 at Chapultepec last year.
2020 WGC Mexico Championship Field
Rory McIlroy – $7.00
Some wayward putting and a few missed chip shots saw Rory come undone in the final round at Riviera last week, but in typical fashion, he still squeaked out a T5 finish. The Irishman will now turn his attention towards some unfinished business after finishing runner-up at Chapultepec last year. Despite last weeks troubles with the putter, McIlroy still ranks sixth on Tour in average birdies made.
Dustin Johnson – $8.00
Last week’s T10 at Riviera was bookended by opening and closing rounds of 72. Johnson probably would have finished inside the top five if it weren’t for some disappointing putting on the back nine, but even so, the two-time champ returns to defend his crown. You’d be forgiven for not knowing what to expect from Johnson given his troubles around the green. With three Top 10’s in four starts this year however, he’s still the man to beat.
Jon Rahm – $11.00
Just like DJ, Rahm’s opening and closing rounds saw him undone last week. The Spaniard was within striking distance on day three sitting -2 under before the greens got the best of him in the final round. Rahm returns to Chapultepec for the third time hoping to rediscover some of the form that saw him finish T3 in 2017 and T20 in 2018. After placing outside the Top 10 on Tour for the first time since late August, he won’t be short on motivation.
Webb Simpson – $19.00
Simpson has a rest advantage this week, unlike many of his competitors. The Phoenix Open champion returns after a hard-fought playoff win over Tony Finau at TPC Scottsdale, although his record at Chapultepec speaks for itself. Simpson has finished outside the Top 30 in each of the last two years and has also finished inside the Top 20 twice. Considering the 14-year Tour veteran has finished top five in each of his last two events though, who really knows what to expect.
Bryson Dechambeau – $26.00
Dechambeau was right in the thick of things last week at Riviera where he finished T5 after a pair of final-round bogeys on the back nine. He showed some promise at this event last year carding a final round 69, but that wasn’t enough to salvage a finish inside the top 50. A case could be made for his accuracy off the tee, but Dechambeau’s short game leaves a lot to be desired.
Patrick Reed – $34.00
Reed almost went unnoticed last week at Riviera where he finished T51, but he deserves a mulligan after a quick turnaround following the Saudi International. Last year the American finished T14 at this event, whilst more recently, Reed’s putting has quietly been among the best on Tour.
Marc Leishman – $41.00
Australians are three-from-six on Tour so far, meaning you have to factor in Leishman at these odds. He failed to fire last week at Riviera, but this year’s Farmers Insurance Open winner still ranks second in the PGA’s approach-the-green rating.
Matt Kuchar – $41.00
When he’s on, he’s on. Nobody is more dangerous with a red-hot putter than this man. Kuchar threw his name in the hat early on last week with two opening rounds under 70 to finish tied for second, but his track record at Chapultepec is a little worrying. His best finish on this course came back in 2017 where he landed T20.
Abraham Ancer – $51.00
I’ve tipped Ancer several times already this year after his impressive showing at the Presidents Cup and he hasn’t disappointed. The Mexican finished outright second at The American Express before a lacklustre T43 last week at Riviera. Making his third appearance in his home tournament, he looks a good roughie shot.
