This year’s FedEx Cup champion will be crowned this weekend as the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta plays host to the TOUR Championship.
Fans will be hoping for more of the same following last week’s dramatic conclusion to the BMW Championship, while punters are faced with a conundrum as the field has been reduced down to 30 players.
To make life even more difficult, the odds are also shorter than usual due to the strokes-based system determined by where each player sits in the FedEx Cup standings.
Fortunately, we’ve decided to lend a hand by offering our best 2020 TOUR Championship bets in our preview below.
TOUR Championship Best Bet
Webb Simpson (-6) at $11.00
Simpson has a huge rest advantage heading to East Lake where he’ll start -6 under.
The 35-year-old chose to skip last week’s BMW Championship, a decision that only cost him a stroke in the end.
He doesn’t have the pressure of performing as the top seed and it’s also easy to forget he’s won twice this year at the Phoenix Open and the RBC Heritage.
Simpson currently ranks first in birdie and scoring average with three Top 10 finishes to his name at this event. He’s also sixth on Tour in Greens In Regulation percentage, so I’m very keen to have something on him at this price.
TOUR Championship Best Value
Bryson DeChambeau (-4) at $23.00
Ball striking is of the utmost importance this week, so it’s fair to say the new-look Bryson DeChambeau should suit East Lake down to a tee.
This year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic winner will open -4 under on Friday, which is handy considering he’s missed the cut and finished 50th in both Playoff events so far.
Even so, he showed plenty of promise on this course last year finishing 12th where he also led the field in putting.
TOUR Championship Best Roughie
Xander Schauffele (-3) at $26.00
Schauffele is also in the same “over the odds” category as Matsuyama.
Wins have proven hard to come by, but he hasn’t missed the cut since January to go along with 11 finishes inside the Top 25.
He’s currently valued as the eighth-best ball striker on the PGA website and is coming off an outright second at this event last year. This could be his big moment.
TOUR Championship Top 10 Finish
Tony Finau (-2) at $2.38
Finau typically goes around at this kind of price, but it might be a touch overs considering how well he performed at Olympia Fields last week.
The American closed with a final round 65 to finish outright fifth after missing the cut a week earlier at the Northern Trust.
You wouldn’t want to be on him to win, but an outright seventh on this course last year makes him a worthwhile bet to come close.
TOUR Championship Top Rest of the World
Hideki Matsuyama (-4) at $2.20
It is quite unreal to find Matsuyama at this price coming off last week’s T3 at the BMW.
He’ll start -4 under this week, which is huge considering he’s finished Top 10 at this event in three of his last four appearances.
Matsuyama has now qualified for the TOUR Championship on seven straight occasions, the second-longest streak behind Patrick Reed.
TOUR Championship Best of the Rest
Dustin Johnson (-10) at $2.88
DJ is the top seed this weekend and will begin the TOUR Championship -10 under par.
He reminded everyone why he is the No. 1 golfer in the world last week by forcing a playoff against Jon Rahm at Olympia Fields and there was certainly no shame in losing to the Spaniard on a miracle putt.
The only real knock on DJ right now is his accuracy off the tee, but his track record at this event more than makes up for it: five finishes inside the Top 10.
Jon Rahm (-8) at $3.75
Draining a 66-foot walk-off putt is a tough act to follow, but who are we to argue with the world No. 2?
Rahm will start -8 under at East Lake this week searching for his third win of the year. He’s finished Top 15 in each of his three appearances at this event and currently ranks third on Tour in scoring average.
The Spaniard has won on the two toughest courses (Muirfield and Olympia Fields) this year, so you’d be foolish to bet against him finishing anywhere outside the Top 10.
Justin Thomas (-7) at $6.00
Thomas will start -7 under at East Lake, but it’s tough to get a read on him right now.
After winning the WGC St. Jude last month, he’s finished T37, T49 and T25 in his last three tournaments.
Still, Thomas did close out with a final round 68 at Olympia Fields last week, which bodes well on his quest to join Tiger and Rory as a two-time FedEx Cup champ.
He’s finished no worse than seventh in four appearances at this event and currently ranks third in birdie average.
Collin Morikawa (-5) at $21.00
This year’s PGA Champ went on to miss the cut at the Northern Trust prior to last week’s T20 at Olympia Fields.
The American finished with two final rounds of 68 to lead the field in proximity, making him an intriguing name to watch at big odds.
This is his first look at East Lake though, so it’s tough to know what to expect.
Rory McIlroy (-3) at $26.00
The defending champ will start -3 under this week, but from then on, things get a little complicated.
McIlroy is expecting the birth of his first child this week, so it’s tough to know if he’ll make an appearance or not. His form at Olympia Fields last week (T12) was also a little up and down over the final two rounds.
Perhaps the Irishman deserves the benefit of the doubt though based on his numbers last year.
McIlroy led the field in Stokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, so if he does play, this appears to be the ideal course for him to rediscover his mojo.
Daniel Berger (-4) at $29.00
Berger will start -4 under this week and it would be quite the story if he were to win.
The American has been outstanding since play resumed winning the Charles Schwab to go along with four finishes inside the Top 15.