The PGA TOUR returns to the lone star state this week with TPC Craig Ranch in Texas playing host to the AT&T Byron Nelson.
The final stop before next week’s PGA Championship has attracted the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Aussie Jason Day, while back-to-back champion K.H. Lee is hoping to become the first player this season to score a three-peat.
Often thought of as a tune-up heading into the second major, it’s no surprise to learn that seven of the last nine winners of this event have come at 100-1 golfing odds or longer.
With that in mind, we’ve gone searching for big value in our 2023 Byron Nelson Preview below!
AT&T Byron Nelson Best Bet
Seamus Power – $26
The general thought heading into the weekend is that this is merely a tune-up for several of the bigger names ahead of the PGA Championship at Oak Hill next week.
Therefore, I’m taking my chances by backing players at longer odds, which has typically been profitable when you look back at the recent history of this event.
Seamus Power was out of form before he stepped out at Quail Hollow last week, falling outside the Top 40 at Augusta and missing the cut at the RBC Heritage a week later.
He rebounded to land Top 20 however, while his recent efforts here at TPC Craig Ranch are encouraging of another big performance.
The Irishman has finished Top 20 in his last two appearances, scoring on average 67 each round.
This course has typically been a bit of a birdie-fest over the last few years, so I also fancy backing a guy like Power that ranks Top 25 in Birdie Average.
AT&T Byron Nelson Best Value
Jason Day – $15.00
It’s been a frustrating watch for Aussie golf fans as Day continues to flirt with his first win on TOUR since the 2018 Wells Fargo.
He teased us last month at the Arnie and at TPC Sawgrass, but surprisingly fell one stroke shy of making the cut at Quail Hollow last week on a course he knows rather well.
Speaking of courses, Craig Ranch draws numerous comparisons, but one that stands out is TPC Scottsdale.
Day finished fifth at the Phoenix Open earlier in the year -12 under, form that has stacked up in the past with KH Lee going on to win this event after finishing runner-up in the desert back in 2021.
Byeong Hun An – $46.00
It’s been a frustrating watch for Aussie golf fans as Day continues to flirt with his first win on TOUR since the 2018 Wells Fargo.
He teased us last month at the Arnie and at TPC Sawgrass, but surprisingly fell one stroke shy of making the cut at Quail Hollow last week on a course he knows rather well.
Speaking of courses, Craig Ranch draws numerous comparisons, but one that stands out is TPC Scottsdale.
Day finished fifth at the Phoenix Open earlier in the year -12 under, form that has stacked up in the past with KH Lee going on to win this event after finishing runner-up in the desert back in 2021.
AT&T Byron Nelson Best Roughies
Cameron Champ – $101.00
As mentioned in the intro, seven of the last nine winners have come at 100-1 odds or longer, so this week’s roughie section will only feature those at triple-digits.
I included Cameron Champ on my bet slip last week at Quail Hollow where he, of course, went on to miss the cut.
Considering his year, that was always the likely outcome, but he only needs to regain the same form that saw him finish T8 in Mexico the week prior to be a factor.
Off the tee, Champ has been one of the best long-bombers when it comes to getting distance, while he’s also made the cut in both appearances here at TPC Craig Ranch in the past.
Patton Kizzire – $101.00
Kizzire has been a tricky player to try and work out this year.
He was T10 at the Valspar back in March but has missed the cut in his last two tournaments, which largely explains the big odds on offer.
Statistically, the American has a lot of work to do, but I love this bet if you want to back a player with a hot putter.
Kizzire ranks first in putting from inside 3ft, and 14th in birdie or better conversion percentage. Combine that with a T3 at this event back in 2021, and he suddenly ticks a couple of boxes.